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A comment on How One 19-Year-Old Illinois Man Is Distorting National Polling Averages. Parent comment

Re:How One 19-Year-Old Illinois Man Is Distorting National P... by hilop on Wednesday October 12, 2016 @05:58PM (#12696731)
His name is Nate Silver. Don't be obnoxious.

538 didn't fail to read data properly re Trump's nomination. Trump was a new phenomenon with no history to build a model from. 538's mistake was guessing instead of admitting they had insufficient data -- which is bad behavior, but not because their preferred methodology is bad.

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Re:How One 19-Year-Old Illinois Man Is Distorting National P... by cwyers on Wednesday October 12, 2016 @07:25PM (#12697198)
Bull. Their polling based model performed okay (although, at least through Super Tuesday when I looked at it, his polls-plus model didn't outperform his polls-only model, and neither significantly outperformed the RCP weighted average of polls). What failed during the primaries was Nate's "Party Decides" punditry.
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Re:How One 19-Year-Old Illinois Man Is Distorting National P... by fulldecent on Wednesday October 12, 2016 @10:52PM (#12698071)
LTCM failed too because they did not consider confidence intervals on its models.
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