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Re:The Server At Peak X86 by AstroJetson on Monday September 19, 2016 @07:16AM (#12530417)
I disagree with the article author and at the end of the super long article, so does IDC. For the big workloads, x86 systems are going to be on top for the next years. Yes ARM is making strides, but it will take time before the move into data centers at any significant rate.

The trend lines from the IDC charts show continued growth, 5-6% growth is pretty decent as you remember manufacturing costs continue to drop.

Re:The Server At Peak X86 by thr0waway1239 on Monday September 19, 2016 @07:23AM (#12530448)
Can you give a little summary of why the article thinks it is peak x86 for those of us who are not very familiar with this field?
Re:The Server At Peak X86 by AstroJetson on Monday September 19, 2016 @10:59AM (#12531908)
It appears that he draws most of his conclusions based on what Gartner thinks is going on. Gartner thinks that the next generation of ARM is going to be a huge winner. It take a long time to get traction in the big server marketplace, he thinks it will be sooner.

ARM has some spiffy stuff, but it's not what the big data centers are looking for. There is posts about the Apple CPUs that are out. Nice stuff and if I was building a phone, it would be one of my top choices. But if I'm doing data center then I'm going to want something more general purpose. If I have 6 cores in a chip and they are all the same I can load them up. If I have CPU and GPU cores then I have to move tasks around.

If I move to ARM from Intel then I have the added task of trying to optimize my load/task to the new CPU. Granted compilers are a key driver, but lots of people have spent lots of time hand tweaking Intel CPU loads.

22 cores running at 2.2GHz in a single socket is pretty amazing. Haven't seen any ARM72's anywhere near that big.

You might see some movement in this area, but the way companies are gobbling big servers, we are not at peak Intel.

Hope that helps.

Re:The Server At Peak X86 by ansible on Monday September 19, 2016 @01:21PM (#12533024)
22 cores running at 2.2GHz in a single socket is pretty amazing.

I'm still trying to wrap my brain around the idea that the processes running on this system aren't going to be memory bandwidth starved. Yes, I know the Xeons have gobs of cache in multiple levels, but still. And yes, I know that distributing tasks across multiple systems can have its own severe performance problems.

Re:The Server At Peak X86 by pcwalton on Monday September 19, 2016 @01:27PM (#12533065)
> the way companies are gobbling big servers, we are not at peak Intel.

I think the point is that you're pretty much by definition at the peak when your market share is 99.3%. There's nowhere to go.

Re:The Server At Peak X86 by AstroJetson on Monday September 19, 2016 @04:20PM (#12534358)
But the market keeps getting bigger and bigger. Unless we are using a different version of what "peak" means in this context.

"The hypothetical point in time when the global production of x86 equipment reaches its maximum rate, after which production will gradually decline." is the one that I'm using. As long as the demand is up there, then production will continue to grow.

Re:The Server At Peak X86 by thr0waway1239 on Monday September 19, 2016 @12:00PM (#12532414)
Thanks. I got most of it :-)
Re:The Server At Peak X86 by bitwize on Monday September 19, 2016 @07:55AM (#12530621)
The Apple A10 is trouncing lower-end Intel kit already. We may be looking at a future of client-side computing dominated by Apple; if they can get their shit in one sock cloud-wise they'll make dents in the server space too. Think Amazon AWS, but running Mac OS X server and fully integrated with OS X. Easy peasy deployment of your Rails app straight from your MBP dev box right to the cloud, with almost zero config management required.
Re:The Server At Peak X86 by Lagged2Death on Monday September 19, 2016 @09:42AM (#12531356)
The Apple A10 is trouncing lower-end Intel kit already.

The version of this story I saw was based on Geekbench scores. Browsing Geekbench results, I noticed that identical CPUs had scores that varied by huge amounts, as much as 2x. That may be a reflection of a real phenomenon, but it's not what I expect from a "CPU benchmark."

Geekbench also claims to model real-world applications, and I wonder what that means for comparing a phone and a laptop. Obviously there aren't so many apps that run the same way on both platforms. I wouldn't have any trouble believing, for example, that the CPU and video display system on a phone were superbly and efficiently integrated, far more so than in a desktop or laptop, and that would show up in an application benchmark. But I'd be surprised if a phone CPU can really get through many threads of branchy code faster than a big high-consumption part with giant caches can.

Anyway, I'm dubious about the Geekbench thing and I wonder if there are other measurements you have in mind.

Re:The Server At Peak X86 by richardwhiuk on Monday September 19, 2016 @08:17AM (#12530756)
I doubt it. Apple has been systematically withdrawing from the server space for years, and I doubt they are particularly likely to reverse that trend. Servers are relatively low margin with a small brand impact. Apple plays well in consumer electronics where brand has much more of an impact on margin.
Re:The Server At Peak X86 by astrodust on Monday September 19, 2016 @11:11AM (#12532011)
Apple buys generic Intel kit for their datacentres, and did this even when making their own server product.

Consuming your own output isn't good for margins, and like many large-scale providers, you must acknowledge vanity hardware isn't any faster than bare motherboards in a rack. The more bare-bones the better.

The XServe and friends were intended for small-scale deployments. They did a few partnerships to build clusters of them for HPC but that was largely a demonstration, not a target customer base.

Re:The Server At Peak X86 by protomyth on Monday September 19, 2016 @10:01AM (#12531496)
Why would I as a buyer trust Apple in the server space? They've already withdrawn once and they cannot even keep pace at the workstation level (Mac Pro).
Re:The Server At Peak X86 by gaius on Monday September 19, 2016 @10:12AM (#12531575)
Twice

Before the Xserve there was the Apple Network Server https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple_Network_Server

Re:The Server At Peak X86 by protomyth on Monday September 19, 2016 @11:05AM (#12531952)
I supposed we can A/UX to the list. So, its A/UX -> AIX -> OS X Server. I do admit an iOS Server would be an interesting product. I guess it would be all containers all the time.
Re:The Server At Peak X86 by watersb on Monday September 19, 2016 @07:07PM (#12535532)
(The chronology of Apple *nix is correct, but they are very different products. A/UX for 68k. AIX for PowerPC is an IBM OS. And OS X from NextStep.)
Re:The Server At Peak X86 by protomyth on Monday September 19, 2016 @08:24PM (#12535933)
Yep, which I think is the point of trusting Apple in the server segment. That they are all different adds to the point.
Re:The Server At Peak X86 by astrodust on Monday September 19, 2016 @11:12AM (#12532023)
It's not about trusting Apple. It's about recognizing that if Apple can push ARM performance to that level then other companies will eventually catch up as well, and if commodity ARM is actually competitive with commodity Intel then they have a problem.

Intel has a huge competitive advantage here in the bulk of the market, but ARM will find an opening as well. They'll probably coexist for some time.

Re:The Server At Peak X86 by GrinningFool on Monday September 19, 2016 @09:44AM (#12531378)
Aren't there numerous services that make this scenario just as seamlessly? What would Apple add to it, other than their name? What advantages will Mac OS X server (presumably on ARM) offer over what can be done today?
Re:The Server At Peak X86 by vostok on Monday September 19, 2016 @08:29AM (#12530853)
> We may be looking at a future of client-side computing dominated by Apple

I don't know about that. I recently switched from Apple hardware to chromebook hardware because the chromebook was under $200. I just couldn't justify the extra cost.

Re:The Server At Peak X86 by willvarfar on Monday September 19, 2016 @09:10AM (#12531124)
There are ARM chromebooks, and whilst the A10 is unlikely to turn up in a Chromebook, will future Chromebooks be Intel-based?
Re:The Server At Peak X86 by creshal on Monday September 19, 2016 @10:29AM (#12531696)
> will future Chromebooks be Intel-based?

There's no indication of a switch to ARM-only from any vendor I'm aware of. Lenovo et al. are still releasing new x86-based Chromebooks.

Re:The Server At Peak X86 by kalleboo on Monday September 19, 2016 @08:02AM (#12530656)
They may have the CPU chops but no way do they have the institutional ability to sell clients and servers to business. They can't even hold onto the educational market which they're losing to Google Chromebooks.
Re:The Server At Peak X86 by acdha on Monday September 19, 2016 @09:55AM (#12531459)
> They may have the CPU chops but no way do they have the institutional ability to sell clients and servers to business.

Proprietary hardware is a hard sale for anyone these days but in Apple's case it's even harder because their previous attempts left many shops with a disinclination to ever use them again. It'd take a serious commitment to forget the era where you had to beg for OS X Server bugfixes by saying they were preventing the purchase of n Macs.