I think the Mario IP combined with an App Store feature, which it is almost certain to get, should give it respectable enough download numbers for Nintendo to consider it a success. Endless runner games historically don't monetise as well as other genres so allowing the user to trial the game then pay a fee for full access might work out better for them than if they had went the micro-transaction route. The decision to include the one off payment would suggest to me that they don't see it as an ever-green game with monthly updates like Pokemon Go and expect it to have a much shorter life.