That's another thing I can't understand if he succeeds we all win in a very fundamental way, why so many people hope he fails is beyond me.

If he fails for making promises he could never keep, many will stand to lose. I live in the home of Toyota in Japan, and would welcome any competition that pushes Japanese automakers to achieve more, but in my opinion Tesla is not showing the signs of a business that can scale. Incidentally, I blame the American consumers, investors, media, and labor pool for that shortcoming as much or more than I would blame Musk. A great leader is still only as good as his weakest link. In my view, America is incapable of sustaining a great manufacturing culture at scale due to the influence of various perverse incentives that have woven themselves into the cultural fabric.

I don't think people are necessarily hoping he will fail, rather they believe his failure is a forgone conclusion, and they can't understand why others can't see that...including Musk.

NOTE: I'm not a hater or a fanboy.

Few want him to fail, and we'd all love the grand plans to succeed....but at some point a dose of realism has to be injected. Elon isn't a pied piper. We do need to think for ourselves occasionally, as do investors.

I am not hoping he fails, and certainly where battery tech is concerned Tesla have moved on R and D - especially when it comes to battery pods and keeping batteries at a consistent temperature and state.

But.....the grand visions before the boring grunt work of engineering has been accomplished, and trying to build massive $5 billion factories before any kind of profitability is on the horizon is not going to help Tesla stick around beyond a few years at most.

The battery technology is certainly where Tesla have a big lead. It's not really the battery chemistry per se, but building and engineering a battery pod that is safe and that keeps battery cells in a consistently good state whether under charging or discharging. Once a battery starts losing performance it only accelerates. If you have to keep it in a good window and it will last for many years. Liquid cooling is also the way to be doing this.

They're also right about hydrogen fuel cells. They're stupid. Maybe if we get into space and can get an abundance of hydrogen things will be great. But, here on Earth you have to manufacture the hydrogen and create a vast infrastructure to transport and store it.

Tesla also have a big lead in the use of telemetry and their ability to do software updates over the air and their approach to security and building this in-house. Other car manufacturers will continue to outsource this and continue to fuck up completely.

However, Tesla had to follow through with all of this, maybe be out of the public eye for a while and iterate over the engineering, keeping costs to a minimum and doing the R and D, before moving on to other capitally expensive projects. They've massively overstretched and I don't see it being recoverable.

I kind of think that in case Tesla runs into serious financial issues in the future it might get a hand from the US government in some way or another, because of the long term benefits of Tesla succeeding. Just my opinion, no sources for that.

You seriously think you are in a better position to make such analysis then FMR, Baillie Gifford, T. Rowe Price, Vanguard?

> All I know is he must be very lonely with so many people hoping he fails.

Huh, I'd have assumed the opposite -- that the masses of people following the progress greatly outweighs the man-will-never-fly crowd.

I really don't see any difference if he wins or succeeds. Do you think he is the only person who can do cars or rockets for example? If he fails someone else will pick up the slack, so I see no reason to cheer that he will do it (or for the same reason to expect the opposite).

Moreover, if he succeeds it is not only for his personal merits. That's one of the things that the media gets completely wrong. It is more for the merits of a large group of people working in engineering, advertisement, financing, and because of the general state of the economy. Similarly, if he fails it will not be solely because of his personal qualities.

> Do you think he is the only person who can do cars or rockets for example?

Who else is trying? A lot of people who could do this are reading Hackernews right now. How many of them are actually trying to do it?

He is the only one who came this far, will someone else try probably, but I'd rather see it happen as soon as possible. Also if he fails raising funding for this type of project will be very problematic also there are very few people in the position to try in the first place.