Re:U.S. Wins First Place at International Mathematics Compet...
by andrewwhartion on Friday July 15, 2016 @05:09PM
(#12103857)
I'd guess that you could use similar models to those used to predict a country's Olympic medal performance [1] for predicting outcomes at these events. Namely, it's a function of the country's "economic and human resources and the development of these resources".
[1] http://freakonomics.com/2014/02/11/predicting-the-winter-oly...
The part where East Asian countries seem to consistently dominate the top ranks in recent years with top entries from substantially smaller countries like Singapore and Japan seems to suggest that it's not just a population thing. I wouldn't jump immediately to culture though, because that's a lot of distinct cultures to lump into one bucket.