Only FB knows the real data, everything else are just guesses. They have to present some data on their quarterly reports, but the definitions that they use are fairly flexible. So it's my hearsay/belief versus yours, unless you work at FB and have direct access to this information (your profile seems to say otherwise?)

Here are some other hearsay links:

http://venturebeat.com/2015/02/27/facebooks-active-users-are...

"Facebook’s definition of an active user is now so broad that you can do very little on the site and still be counted within its figures. Secondly, and just as importantly, GlobalWebIndex’s data shows that, while Facebook’s active user numbers are undergoing consistent declines, its member and visitor numbers are either holding steady or increasing. Clearly, we have a large group of Facebookers who are checking the site but not actually contributing to it"

Or even:

https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=facebook&cmpt=q&tz=E...

(note the countries below the chart). Contrast this with

https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%2Fm%2F0nbtf_n

When you have to turn to Google Trends to try to support your point, it's a pretty flimsy point. If we believed your data, then 2012 would be the high water mark for Facebook usage (globally), which is obviously false when you look at actual user numbers released by Facebook. A much better explanation for the decline in searches is the shift to mobile, where people actually have the app installed and hence don't search to find the website.

The VentureBeat article is obviously anecdotal and relying on poor data.

Doom and gloom all you want, but the only real numbers we have (from Facebook) directly contradict your view. If you're trying to force the data to fit your hypothesis, it's usually a sign that your hypothesis is wrong.

I linked Snapchat Google trends data specifically to preempt your navigational search argument: Snapchat does not even have a meaningful website.

How does that prove anything?

Snapchat is starting from a base of 0. So of course it has increased as people have even found out about it. They didn't have any desktop users to transition to mobile.

You're being totally irrational.