Cyclical behavior in business and economics has been noted for a long time, certainly since the Industrial Revolution, and arguably before.
I think it's very dangerous to speak of cycles of predefined lengths, which recur regularly. I think it is useful to look at dynamics, how they occur, how they differ, the specific technological mechanisms driving these, and what the future implications are.
The questions are deep, vast, perplexing, and far from settled. Carlotta Perez's book is mentioned here, I second that. Paul Mason's Postcapitalism argues based on Kondratiev cycles, and has a lot of strong anecdotal data though I question Mason's economic instincts. Robert Gordon's The Rise and Fall of American Growth is an excellent look backward at the period 1870-1970, and onward to the present, though I think his view forward is somewhat clouded. It's not that I disagree with his headwinds and projections of harder times ahead, it's that he's missed some far more fundamental drivers and dynamics.
Alvin Toffler's Future Shock also deals in technology cycles and their dynamics. I've only skimmed bits but suspect that would be insightful.
There's a bunch of crud written on the topic as well, but if you're interested in the question, you're not going to be short of content.
I think it's very dangerous to speak of cycles of predefined lengths, which recur regularly. I think it is useful to look at dynamics, how they occur, how they differ, the specific technological mechanisms driving these, and what the future implications are.
The questions are deep, vast, perplexing, and far from settled. Carlotta Perez's book is mentioned here, I second that. Paul Mason's Postcapitalism argues based on Kondratiev cycles, and has a lot of strong anecdotal data though I question Mason's economic instincts. Robert Gordon's The Rise and Fall of American Growth is an excellent look backward at the period 1870-1970, and onward to the present, though I think his view forward is somewhat clouded. It's not that I disagree with his headwinds and projections of harder times ahead, it's that he's missed some far more fundamental drivers and dynamics.
Alvin Toffler's Future Shock also deals in technology cycles and their dynamics. I've only skimmed bits but suspect that would be insightful.
There's a bunch of crud written on the topic as well, but if you're interested in the question, you're not going to be short of content.