Re:Investing Returns on the S&P500
by ryangittins on Wednesday June 29, 2016 @02:00PM
(#12003361)
Couldn't you have made this same point at most times in modern American history? Wasn't it possible that the US was at its peak in 1970? Or 1980? Or 1990? I suspect it is only due to hindsight that we know it wasn't the peak then.
[ Parent
| on HN ]
Yes, that's true. I'm not saying that the US is necessarily at its peak, just pointing out the fundamental problem with extrapolating based on historical data.
It assumes that the future will look like the past, even though there are some plausible reasons to think that it won't.
Some of those reasons would push you harder in the direction of investing in stocks (e.g. increasing automation, globalization) and some would push you in the opposite (e.g. declining gdp growth, rising inequality, political instability).
Re:Investing Returns on the S&P500
by vasilipupkin on Wednesday June 29, 2016 @10:43PM
(#12006255)
Actually, that isn't quite right. All the negatives you mention should push you away from investing in stocks only if you think that other investment options under those scenarios would do better. But why would they ?