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Re:A Scenario Where Brexit Does Not Actually Happen by Joeri on Sunday June 26, 2016 @08:39AM (#11980516)
The brexit will happen, but the result will be a trade agreement that imposes almost the same set of conditions on the UK, except without the ability of the UK to veto new EU measures. In short, the UK is still going to be controlled by Europe, but now without veto powers.

The negotiators won't be trying too hard to get a better deal from the EU, because they'll be the ones in power, and if they fail to negotiate a deal they'll be forced to give up that power. Trust politicians to prefer power over principles any time.

Re:A Scenario Where Brexit Does Not Actually Happen by bodyfour on Sunday June 26, 2016 @10:09AM (#11980839)
I'm not even that optimistic.

First, one of the prime exports to the EU is financial services. Major financial flows -- even ones in Euros -- are largely done through London. I can't imagine the remaining countries consenting to allowing that to happen in a non-EU country. Financial services would be excluded from a new agreement. The thing that makes the UK rich is that it was the de facto business and financial capital of the continent, and I don't see how that survives.

Second, the new agreement will need to be approved by every remaining EU country. Some might come on board quickly either because their governments are Euroskeptic (Hungary, Poland) or because they'd rather not upset the current trade balance (Germany) Others have less reason to agree easily. Spain, for instance, wants Gibraltar back and wants money for all of the British retirees its health service is looking after. Ireland will want to be in the driver's seat for any decisions about its land border with the UK. The list goes on. I have a hard time seeing how any of this gets figured out in 2 years.

Re:A Scenario Where Brexit Does Not Actually Happen by skylan_q on Sunday June 26, 2016 @08:47AM (#11980540)
the UK is still going to be controlled by Europe

No it won't, as the EU has become a legislative body governing aspects of people's lives in the UK and it will no longer be the case.

Re:A Scenario Where Brexit Does Not Actually Happen by imtringued on Sunday June 26, 2016 @09:04AM (#11980592)
If you want a trade agreement with the EU then yes it will govern aspects of people's lives in the UK because the majority of EU laws are trade regulations.
Re:A Scenario Where Brexit Does Not Actually Happen by slv77 on Sunday June 26, 2016 @10:29AM (#11980931)
In a deflationary environment countries that run trade deficits make the rules. Germany is currently exporting its deflation (and its effects) to the UK via its trade surplus which the Bank of England then has to mitigate.

At this point severe trade restrictions with the UK would likely mean even more severe imbalances inside the EU and the eventual exit of Italy, Spain and Portugal.

Re:A Scenario Where Brexit Does Not Actually Happen by gpvos on Sunday June 26, 2016 @08:56AM (#11980563)
If there is still a trade agreement between the UK and the EU, then lots of things in the UK will still be controlled by the EU, as the EU is larger and will make the trade rules. (Also, the EU is quite bureaucratic and thus not so flexible, so it will not be very willing to make a special agreement with the UK. It's EEA, Canada-style, WTO-style, or nothing.)

If you don't want the EU controlling any aspect of the UK, you can't have a trade agreement.

Re:A Scenario Where Brexit Does Not Actually Happen by wmil on Sunday June 26, 2016 @09:18AM (#11980627)
Right now small businesses in the UK that don't export at all have to comply with all EU rules. If the UK leaves then they won't. So the effective influence will be greatly reduced.
Re:A Scenario Where Brexit Does Not Actually Happen by threeseed on Sunday June 26, 2016 @09:59AM (#11980788)
That's assuming that the UK doesn't establish similar rules.

Many of the EU regulations are designed to help consumers e.g. data protection.

Re:A Scenario Where Brexit Does Not Actually Happen by wmil on Sunday June 26, 2016 @11:55AM (#11981292)
They also push impossible energy efficiency standards for home appliances.

So the EU bans toasters and kettles that work: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/10/eu-to-launch-kett...

Vacuum cleaners that work: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11047127...

Some of the other bizarre rules...

It's illegal for bottled water makers to claim it's effective against dehydration: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/8897662/...

They tried to ban jugs of olive oil at restaurants: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/10064787...

A salmon smoker had to re-do all package to notify people that it contained fish: http://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2016/05/03/476064362/b...

There's just a lot of bs. Also the common agriculture policy and common fishing policy haven't been great for the UK.

Re:A Scenario Where Brexit Does Not Actually Happen by YeGoblynQueenne on Sunday June 26, 2016 @09:45AM (#11980737)
Hurray! We will at last have our crooked cucumbers and carrots, that the EU has for so long cruelly deprived us of!
Re:A Scenario Where Brexit Does Not Actually Happen by internaut on Sunday June 26, 2016 @01:08PM (#11981577)
And the straight bananas, don't forget about them.

At last a free market where the curvature of the banana is subject to consumer choice.

I myself prefer the straight banana for optimizing my fruit salad.

Re:A Scenario Where Brexit Does Not Actually Happen by tonyedgecombe on Sunday June 26, 2016 @10:37AM (#11980964)
A lot of those rules came from the UK in the first place.
Re:A Scenario Where Brexit Does Not Actually Happen by golemotron on Sunday June 26, 2016 @08:45AM (#11980536)
The alternative is to delay the process long enough to form a bloc with other countries that are considering leaving the EU. That's a vision the UK could rally around if they are serious about their independence and securing the best deal for themselves. If they are half-hearted, they will get a bad deal.
Re:A Scenario Where Brexit Does Not Actually Happen by johndoez2 on Sunday June 26, 2016 @08:54AM (#11980555)
The UK is a major market for EU countries, and Merkel understands this better than Juncker. This is not a case of English xenophones vs enlightened Europeans. Ask the average Greek person as to what they think about the EU. The UK has decided to disconnect from the EU Project because it is failing. Instead, the UK has been connecting with other growing economies outside the EU. It is a tough decision, but in the long term it is the right one, both for the UK and for the people of Europe.