Re:Brexit wins. An illusion dies
by toyg on Friday June 24, 2016 @08:33AM
(#11969247)
I can't talk for Spain but Italy leaving is not going to happen. The current government is weak, with a big constitutional referendum planned for September. If they win, they're basically locked into power for another 3 years minimum; if they lose, there won't be new elections right away because everyone agrees the resulting electoral law is not fit for purpose. A temporary executive would never even dream of making things even worse by calling an EU referendum.
Only IF the current government loses in September AND a new electoral law can be agreed AND an euroskeptic party wins a full majority (there is currently only one with a realistic shot at majority) THEN a referendum might be considered, and tbh it would be pretty low on the agenda anyway. The fastest this could happen, realistically, is sometime in 2018, and a lot of things can happen in 2 years.
Besides, Italy was an EU founder and public opinion is strongly pro-EU by tradition, unlike the UK. This position was only dented by the Euro problems, with a couple of fixes (like Eurobonds) things would be totally fine.
Only IF the current government loses in September AND a new electoral law can be agreed AND an euroskeptic party wins a full majority (there is currently only one with a realistic shot at majority) THEN a referendum might be considered, and tbh it would be pretty low on the agenda anyway. The fastest this could happen, realistically, is sometime in 2018, and a lot of things can happen in 2 years.
Besides, Italy was an EU founder and public opinion is strongly pro-EU by tradition, unlike the UK. This position was only dented by the Euro problems, with a couple of fixes (like Eurobonds) things would be totally fine.