Only IF the current government loses in September AND a new electoral law can be agreed AND an euroskeptic party wins a full majority (there is currently only one with a realistic shot at majority) THEN a referendum might be considered, and tbh it would be pretty low on the agenda anyway. The fastest this could happen, realistically, is sometime in 2018, and a lot of things can happen in 2 years.
Besides, Italy was an EU founder and public opinion is strongly pro-EU by tradition, unlike the UK. This position was only dented by the Euro problems, with a couple of fixes (like Eurobonds) things would be totally fine.
As for Google and Amazon and their datacenters in Ireland, as well as all the tax deals there I think that tax advisors are right now working overtime on how to limit the damage to their Irish clientele.
Maybe a good time to buy land around Frankfurt a/M.
Ah, I thought some of them were North of the border. Foresight at work!
Most tech on the island is south of the border due to that.
I think the complete opposite. This gives NI a real debate on independence. We now all face issues bigger than the usual partisan/sectarian nonsense. Border controls will effect a lot of people. That coupled with the many other problems could potentially lead to people putting their usual differences to one side as there are bigger fish to fry. And stop with the 'civil war' hyperbole. We are past that.
The DUP was campaigning for leave and several counties, ones not on the border, returned an overall leave majority.
So I'm surprised you believe the unionists will allow what they've been fighting against for a century to just happen in a peaceful referendum? I'd love to be wrong, I have no insight to how the more extreme elements of each side think these days, are the troubles completely behind the country?
There are but on a small scale. Off the top of my head I can think of 1 shooting and 2 or 3 'successful' bombs in the past 5 years targeted at security services. Obviously not common in most countries but nothing on the scale of the past. Shootings tend to be punishment style attacks within communities, usually involving drugs. None of these acts get support from anyone these days.
I think the DUP was the only party out of the 5 or 6 main parties advocating for leave. It's also not great for them that they hold the first minister position, advocated for leave, and within Northern Ireland people voted to remain. Similar position to the one Cameron is left in if you ask me.
>> "So I'm surprised you believe the unionists will allow what they've been fighting against for a century to just happen in a peaceful referendum? I'd love to be wrong, I have no insight to how the more extreme elements of each side think these days, are the troubles completely behind the country?"
The troubles are very much in the past. There are obviously still those who cling to the past but they tend to be concentrated in a few small communities with zero support outside those communities. Even when you look at the average person who would consider themselves nationalist all they really care about is keeping the peace we have. I think overall the climate is there with the people to have a debate about it - with the politicians not so much. When we have tactics in place that allow politicians to say no to even debating some social issues (gay marriage, abortion etc.) it's difficult to imagine them debating an issue as serious as this. I believe there are provisions in the peace agreement for a border poll so if those are met then it doesn't require anyone to allow the debate, it's automatically in the public arena where I believe an honest debate could occur.
fwiw, Northern Ireland consists of just six counties. Only one does not share a border and only it returned an overall leave majority.
- The Euro collapses as countries leave
- Spain and Italy leave the EU
- the EU collapses completely within 20 years
Look, we can all make wild claims!
I voted remain, but your list is a farce. It's a list of the absolute worse case scenarios.
Obama's gone, the US isn't going to follow through on that threat. It was just fear mongering because they liked the status quo. It was actually a massive misjudgement of the British psyche by Obama. He threatened us thinking it would help the Remain camp! That's not how Brits think, he probably convinced more people to vote Leave with that threat then anyone else, it was a stupid thing to do.
The EU won't be too crazy as it needs access to the UK's market to keep their own economies afloat. It's in the interests of some EU politicians + bureaucrats, not in the interest of the actual states or companies in those to economically alienate the UK now. There's a lot of anti-EU feeling in a lot of other countries and attacking the UK using the unelected bureaucrats of the EU will fuel that, not reduce it.
NI won't leave as it might start another civil war.
The UK economy won't "collapse completely". Not important globally? The 5th or 6th biggest economy is "not that important globally". That's simply not true.
EDIT: Also, what's actually happening in the EU at the moment? You might argue that they're attacking US companies. Data privacy laws. Google anti-trust laws. And the UK is leaving that? But somehow we'd be at the back of the queue...