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Re:Brexit wins. An illusion dies by elemeno on Friday June 24, 2016 @08:13AM (#11969127)
> The british economy will collapse completely, they are by far not that important globally.

The UK has the worlds fifth largest economy by GDP and the second largest economy in the EU (Germany is larger, France is smaller) [1]. To claim that they're 'not that important globally' is, frankly, asinine. Do you really think that the EU won't also get hurt by the UK leaving? If you think it won't then it's worth asking why EUR/USD has also gone sharply down today...

[1] http://money.cnn.com/news/economy/world_economies_gdp/index....

Re:Brexit wins. An illusion dies by crb on Friday June 24, 2016 @08:19AM (#11969150)
"Britain slips from 5th largest economy to 6th (behind growth-less France) in the space of five hours" - Channel 4 journalist Jon Snow
Re:Brexit wins. An illusion dies by TheFishyOne on Friday June 24, 2016 @10:45AM (#11970133)
We slipped, yes, but the FTSE100 is close to 80% recovered from this morning whilst the GBP to USD exchange rate is currently where it was at in February of this year.

Our televised news hosts like to dramatise, it seems.

Meanwhile, the Spanish market is down is down 11%, Belgian one is down 5.5%, France down 7%, Germany down 6%.

It's looking like Europe is hurting more from this announcement than Britain at the moment.

Re:Brexit wins. An illusion dies by dogma1138 on Friday June 24, 2016 @09:00AM (#11969451)
>Jon Snow

He knows nothing....

Sorry couldn't resist.

Re:Brexit wins. An illusion dies by bhouston on Friday June 24, 2016 @08:37AM (#11969279)
UK has a high debt load and is now more isolated than it was. Those are problematic when they are tied together. But I think that what is a major bonus for the UK is that they control their own currency and possibly their debt is issued in UK Pounds (is it?) -- that could be very useful in making their exports attractive if shit hits the fan.

If their debt is not in UK Pounds, it will limit their economic flexibility severely, and I think could lead to a default if things go bad (which we are currently quite far away from right now.)

Thus is the UK debt in UK Pounds? Or is it mostly denominated in Euros, Yen or USD?

Re:Brexit wins. An illusion dies by jacquesm on Friday June 24, 2016 @09:12AM (#11969521)
The UK national debt is all in Pounds.

But whether or not that is an advantage is hard to establish, that all depends on how much of an export position the UK will have post brexit.

Re:Brexit wins. An illusion dies by bhouston on Friday June 24, 2016 @09:29AM (#11969616)
The UK can inflate its debt away, that is always a nice option to have. Greece couldn't do that, and that was a major reason why it was being crushed.
Re:Brexit wins. An illusion dies by aries1980 on Friday June 24, 2016 @10:18AM (#11969916)
They would not just devaluate the debt but the domestic assets as well.
Re:Brexit wins. An illusion dies by nailer on Friday June 24, 2016 @08:16AM (#11969138)
Sixth, as of this morning. Thanks Boris.
Re:Brexit wins. An illusion dies by anonyfox on Friday June 24, 2016 @08:20AM (#11969153)
UK benefits mostly from the financial industry afaik. Does anyone really think that this sector will stay 100% in this situation? Bankers are already planning the migration to Frankfurt. This might as well lead to a spiral. We'll see.

And yes, France is now a bigger economy than britain, and it's just been a few hours now.

Re:Brexit wins. An illusion dies by bhouston on Friday June 24, 2016 @08:40AM (#11969298)
What is the reason for moving banking to Frankfurt? Is there regulatory issues?

People do not just moving businesses for purely political reasons, there has to be concrete economic reasons.

I actually think that the UK may be less regulated than EU exchanges and that may stay in order to keep the UK more attractive.

If you do not list any real economic reasons, I think this is just scare talk.

Re:Brexit wins. An illusion dies by Xylakant on Friday June 24, 2016 @08:49AM (#11969375)
> What is the reason for moving banking to Frankfurt? Is there regulatory issues?

London is one of the biggest (or rather the biggest) hub for EUR-denominated trading and AFAIK they're only allowed to do so because they're EU member. There's also the practice called passporting: Bonds, Insurances etc that are regulated in one EU country are allowed to be sold in all EU countries. The UK had the most favorable regulations for those bonds, so a lot of them moved to London. Now that London might soon not be part of the EU any more, the banks at least need a residence in a EU member state. Some might consider to substantially reduce their London operations.

Re:Brexit wins. An illusion dies by sveme on Friday June 24, 2016 @09:20AM (#11969557)
As another commenter already noted, the common market covers goods, people and services, including financial services. So in order to sell financial services, you need to be located in the EU. That just changed in the case of London, with obvious consequences:

— Ben Thompson (@BBCBenThompson) June 24, 2016

Sources at Morgan Stanley tell BBC it's already begun process of moving 2,000 London based investment banking staff to Dublin or Frankfurt

Re:Brexit wins. An illusion dies by unprepare on Friday June 24, 2016 @09:01AM (#11969457)
>Is there regulatory issues?

lack of a free trade agreement with europe comes to mind.

Re:Brexit wins. An illusion dies by jacquesm on Friday June 24, 2016 @08:45AM (#11969340)
> What is the reason for moving banking to Frankfurt?

Stability plus the fact that Frankfurt is already a major financial hub, and that Germany is a major driver of the EU economy.

Re:Brexit wins. An illusion dies by bhouston on Friday June 24, 2016 @08:48AM (#11969360)
The only thing that has changed as of this vote of the three things you listed is the "stability" aspect. Maybe that is sufficient to cause an exodus, but I am not sure.
Re:Brexit wins. An illusion dies by jacquesm on Friday June 24, 2016 @08:55AM (#11969418)
The perception of London being the doorstep of the EU has just changed to London being outside of the EU, it would make zero sense for the EU financial center to be technically outside of it.
Re:Brexit wins. An illusion dies by Bombthecat on Friday June 24, 2016 @11:00AM (#11970266)
I think in the same direction. Not much will change.

Funny how the leave voters of fear and spite are now here talking about punishing the uk out of spite :)

Re:Brexit wins. An illusion dies by WorldMaker on Friday June 24, 2016 @10:54AM (#11970224)
From what I was reading during the last Scottish independence vote, if Scotland goes independent then they take almost all of the UK's oil and gas industries and a surprising amount of the economy with them. If Scotland goes independent and joins the EU, it definitely sounds like Britain's economy could collapse under the pressure of British companies having to spend EU market fees to trade with their subsidiaries that lease Scottish oil fields, alone.

We are living in interesting times, it would seem.

Re:Brexit wins. An illusion dies by VeejayRampay on Friday June 24, 2016 @08:58AM (#11969440)
It really depends at which point in time you're observing. France and the UK have been neck to neck for decades.