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Re:Elon Musk provides new details on his ‘mind blowing’ miss... by sago on Saturday June 11, 2016 @09:32AM (#11883383)
Other than PR, what would a Mars manned mission provide that a moon-base and 'cargo flights to the moon' wouldn't?

If the aim is to perfect human survival off-earth, then surely the moon is a better goal. I know we've been to the moon, but only for a few hours. We're nowhere near the tech/cargo transfer needed to put a manned base on it.

Are we going to put a few people on Mars, lose interest in that right away, wait another 40 years and then aim for Europa?

[edit: Thank you all for the responses.]

Re:Elon Musk provides new details on his ‘mind blowing’ miss... by gpm on Saturday June 11, 2016 @10:01AM (#11883460)
Musk is very clear that his plan is to establish a self sustaining colony, not another 'footprints' mission, and not a colony that needs to be sustained via continuous resupply.

Mars has several advantages, you can pretty much google this and get better arguments then I'm able to make here. But here are a few key points.

- Earth like day period, 39 minutes longer versus almost a month longer than earth.

- More stable day-night temperature

- More gravity

- A weak atmosphere (versus none), and the capability to retain a earth like atmosphere.

- Easy access to Water, and CO2. Important for growing plants and making rocket fuel amongst other things.

Re:Elon Musk provides new details on his ‘mind blowing’ miss... by ianai on Saturday June 11, 2016 @10:26AM (#11883551)
Are we sure the water's easy to access? From what I've seen, it evaporates really fast and the atmosphere is being stripped from the planet.
Re:Elon Musk provides new details on his ‘mind blowing’ miss... by gpm on Saturday June 11, 2016 @10:43AM (#11883598)
Well, easy compared to anywhere else we can go.

We aren't really looking for liquid water [0], as you say that evaporates pretty much instantaneously. Rather we are looking for ice, the pheonix lander confirmed the that this exists naturally on mars [1]. In the worst case water bound to the soil that can be baked out [2].

As for the atmosphere being stripped away, that's not really a concern on time scales humans care about. Though I've heard people talk about setting up a artificial magnet field to reduce the amount of radiation you receive, which should also prevent this.

[0] Well we are, but as a scientific curiosity not as a way to sustain a colony.

[1] http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/phoenix/news/phoenix-20080...

[2] http://www.space.com/22949-mars-water-discovery-curiosity-ro...

Re:Elon Musk provides new details on his ‘mind blowing’ miss... by phire on Saturday June 11, 2016 @10:59AM (#11883650)
In the short term, you are either strip-mining soil to collect ice crystals, which you melt and store inside, or drilling a well (and piping it inside). You would grow food inside pressurised tents.

In the long term, mars lost its previous atmosphere over billions of years. If you have the technology to rebuild an atmosphere in human timescales (few hundred or thousand years) the atmospheric loss is small enough that it almost becomes a rounding error. Maintaining it should be easy.

Re:Elon Musk provides new details on his ‘mind blowing’ miss... by Agathos on Saturday June 11, 2016 @10:59AM (#11883651)
You can't beat Earth for easy access to liquid water. But you can easily beat the Moon. Mars beats the hell out of the Moon on that score.
Re:Elon Musk provides new details on his ‘mind blowing’ miss... by robbiep on Saturday June 11, 2016 @10:42AM (#11883596)
Poles
Re:Elon Musk provides new details on his ‘mind blowing’ miss... by johan_larson on Saturday June 11, 2016 @10:16AM (#11883515)
I have to wonder what the heck a "self-sustaining" Mars colony would export to Earth to pay for all the stuff they need to import.
Re:Elon Musk provides new details on his ‘mind blowing’ miss... by phire on Saturday June 11, 2016 @11:26AM (#11883759)
Potentially science and technology, things that can be transmitted via radio. Maybe Mars could setup a hollywood style entertainment industry :)

As far as minerals, I really doubt there are any which would be cheaper to mine on mars, load on a rocket and transport back to earth, than to mine directly on earth. Even if you build a space elevator on Mars (which is much easier than building one on earth).

Maybe you could setup a 3 way trade. Even without the space elevator, it's cheaper to ship things from Mars' surface to basically anywhere in the solar system than it is from earth's surface.

So Mars could ship oxygen, water, CO2 filters, building materials, maybe even food to an asteroid station (whatever they can't source locally) and the asteroid station could ship whatever they mine from the asteroid to earth.

Re:Elon Musk provides new details on his ‘mind blowing’ miss... by emiliobumachar on Saturday June 11, 2016 @10:35AM (#11883582)
I think "self-sustaining" in the context means that if Earth dissapears, explodes, turns into grey goo, or otherwise becomes unavailable, the Mars colony stands a chance of surviving indefinitely.

Yes, it's a hugely ambitious goal.

Re:Elon Musk provides new details on his ‘mind blowing’ miss... by TeMPOraL on Saturday June 11, 2016 @10:48AM (#11883614)
"Self-sustaining" by definition means able to survive indefinitely without importing anything from Earth.
Re:Elon Musk provides new details on his ‘mind blowing’ miss... by nabla9 on Saturday June 11, 2016 @11:01AM (#11883661)
Just few things needed for that

- mining industry

- chemical industry with thousands of end products.

- biochemical industry (medicines, plastics etc.)

- microprocessor fab and IC fabrication

- indefinitely sustained biosphere

- manufacturing industry for different high-end products, including rockets, instruments etc. and ability to maintain them.

I think you need large city with maybe 500,000 people at minimum with current technology.

Re:Elon Musk provides new details on his ‘mind blowing’ miss... by cjahsh on Saturday June 11, 2016 @10:21AM (#11883534)
Just look at people living in the Arctic: everything is imported, basic necessities are expensive, and getting replacements could take weeks.

Now imagine that you're on a different planet, and there are only a few firms that CAN resupply, and they'll only do it if you can compensate them sufficiently.

Better hope the colony is built on a platinum and rhodium mine!

Re:Elon Musk provides new details on his ‘mind blowing’ miss... by Aelinsaar on Saturday June 11, 2016 @10:32AM (#11883571)
...No protective magnetosphere... brutal temperature shifts, and more radiation than you can reasonably survive on the way to Mars. Problems we have not solved yet...
Re:Elon Musk provides new details on his ‘mind blowing’ miss... by JumpCrisscross on Sunday June 12, 2016 @05:00AM (#11887285)
> No protective magnetosphere... brutal temperature shifts

Not a problem in a shielded, climate-controlled shelter, e.g. one partly underground or in a cave.

> more radiation than you can reasonably survive on the way to Mars.

Putting food and water between space and interplanetary astronauts is a popularly-discussed option.

I think you may have been down-voted on your tone. This is an optimistic, bleeding-edge project. Unless you are an expert, it is more appropriate to ask why something isn't a problem than to prematurely declare it as unsolved or unsolvable.

Re:Elon Musk provides new details on his ‘mind blowing’ miss... by Aelinsaar on Sunday June 12, 2016 @11:59AM (#11888659)
I think the burden is on the person saying, "To mars, very soon!" to explain what they feel has changed, or changing, to allow that to be something other than a one-way, dead-end mission.

If you want optimism for the sake of optimism, Facebook has some lovely mother's groups.

Re:Elon Musk provides new details on his ‘mind blowing’ miss... by JumpCrisscross on Sunday June 12, 2016 @07:45PM (#11890908)
That's an arrogant perspective. What value are you adding that anything needs to be proved to you?
Re:Elon Musk provides new details on his ‘mind blowing’ miss... by Aelinsaar on Saturday June 11, 2016 @02:47PM (#11884724)
...Or maybe we have? I see the downvotes, but no replies to explain what I missed.
Re:Elon Musk provides new details on his ‘mind blowing’ miss... by jrv on Saturday June 11, 2016 @09:56AM (#11883444)
I'm no expert at all, but three things come to mind:

- Mars has a (thin) atmosphere, mostly made up of CO2 -> good for plant growth. The Moon has none.

- Mars has gravity closer to Earth than the Moon.

- Mars has lots of water, while the moon has possibly just a little?

EDIT: found http://www.mars-one.com/faq/mission-to-mars/why-mars-and-not..., which cites similar and more reasons (although Mars One seems to be pretty much a scam).

Re:Elon Musk provides new details on his ‘mind blowing’ miss... by bergie on Saturday June 11, 2016 @10:02AM (#11883466)
The Martian atmosphere also makes aerobraking possible, meaning spacecraft arriving there need less delta-V. A Dragon2 can land in Mars, but not on the Moon because of this.
Re:Elon Musk provides new details on his ‘mind blowing’ miss... by exDM69 on Saturday June 11, 2016 @10:14AM (#11883504)
Aerobraking is a benefit but is the Dragon really unable to land on the moon? The moon has less gravity (about half) and the velocity difference should be much smaller for a lunar intercept than a Mars intercept.

Has anyone got numbers for this?

Re:Elon Musk provides new details on his ‘mind blowing’ miss... by lmm on Saturday June 11, 2016 @10:20AM (#11883527)
Dragon doesn't have enough delta-V to land on the moon. The plan for a Mars landing is to use it as a lifting body to keep it above the ground for long enough to shed most of its velocity.
Re:Elon Musk provides new details on his ‘mind blowing’ miss... by dalke on Saturday June 11, 2016 @11:10AM (#11883696)
I've read various statements which say that Dragon can land on the Moon, such as http://www.nbcnews.com/science/space/mars-ahead-spacex-unvei... :

> Musk has said a fully loaded Dragon could even be sent to make a touchdown on the moon or Mars

or https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2016/04/spacex-debut-red-dra... :

> “With Dragon launched on a Falcon Heavy, it can go pretty much anywhere in the solar system, because that’s a heck of a big rocket,” he continued.

> “Dragon, with the heat shield, parachutes and propulsive landing capability, is able to land on a planet that has higher entry heating, like Mars. It can also land on the Moon, or potentially conduct a Europa mission.”

How does that fit with the statement "Dragon doesn't have enough delta-V to land on the moon"?

Re:Elon Musk provides new details on his ‘mind blowing’ miss... by exDM69 on Saturday June 11, 2016 @10:24AM (#11883542)
Yes, GP said that already but I'm after the numbers here. How much delta-v the Dragon has? And what are the approximate requirements for Moon vs. Mars landing?
Re:Elon Musk provides new details on his ‘mind blowing’ miss... by Symmetry on Saturday June 11, 2016 @10:50AM (#11883619)
The Dragon 2 has about 1.6 km/s. Apollo had 2.47 km/s to land and 2.22 km/s to take off. Oh, and it would take on the order of 4.5 km/s to take off from Mars and maybe a few hundred to land.
Re:Elon Musk provides new details on his ‘mind blowing’ miss... by exDM69 on Saturday June 11, 2016 @11:56AM (#11883898)
Thanks! These numbers look reasonable to me. Can you provide a link to source (s)? I'd like to read some more...
Re:Elon Musk provides new details on his ‘mind blowing’ miss... by robbiep on Saturday June 11, 2016 @10:48AM (#11883612)
'- Mars has gravity closer to the earth than the moon'

Depends on what you mean by close. 0.38 is closer to 16.7 than 1, but any improvement on that is important

Re:Elon Musk provides new details on his ‘mind blowing’ miss... by Manabu-eo on Saturday June 11, 2016 @11:59AM (#11883912)
If you are talking about human health, it might be that any gravity bellow 0.8g is almost as bad for human health as microgravity. It could be that any gravity above 0.1g is as good as 1g for human health. We simply don't know the format of that curve. We have no data on it even on rodents (the ISS module for that was scrapped). We only know that 1g is good and microgravity is bad. And that very high g is bad too.
Re:Elon Musk provides new details on his ‘mind blowing’ miss... by danielvf on Saturday June 11, 2016 @09:56AM (#11883445)
First of all, going to Mars is hard. It makes going to the moon look easy. Most missions to Mars have failed - in fact, with fifty years of trying, the USSR and Russia has never had a successful Mars mission. A round trip to the Moon is a week, a round trip to Mars is four years in space.

So if we could do humans on Mars, it would mean that we had learned far more than we used to know. It's like the difference between climbing a hill in your city, and climbing Mt Everest.

Re:Elon Musk provides new details on his ‘mind blowing’ miss... by sago on Saturday June 11, 2016 @10:08AM (#11883480)
Doesn't that argue for doing the moon first? If you say "yeah we've not climbed any hills yet, but we're totally gonna try Everest" that might not show much common sense.

And if the aim is to just try to do the hardest possible thing we can think of, why Mars and not, say Venus?

I think difficulty is a red herring. The other suggested reasons (atmosphere, gravity, water) seem much better reasons.

Re:Elon Musk provides new details on his ‘mind blowing’ miss... by danielvf on Saturday June 11, 2016 @11:32AM (#11883784)
We've already been to the moon first though, several times. Mars is the next (huge) step forward in difficulty.
Re:Elon Musk provides new details on his ‘mind blowing’ miss... by sago on Saturday June 11, 2016 @11:57AM (#11883902)
We've visited for a few hours, this is about putting a colony on it. That's orders of magnitude more difficult. Why do something orders of magnitude more difficult on a planet orders of magnitude more difficult to reach?

As I said, the other answers seemed to give credible suggestions.

Re:Elon Musk provides new details on his ‘mind blowing’ miss... by jessriedel on Saturday June 11, 2016 @09:55AM (#11883442)
Although its obviously speculative, I'm pretty sure the expert consensus is that Mars is significantly more promising for self-sufficient human colonization than the Moon.
Re:Elon Musk provides new details on his ‘mind blowing’ miss... by Manabu-eo on Saturday June 11, 2016 @11:50AM (#11883863)
One advantage of Mars to the Moon for a self-sustaining civilization that no-one mentioned is that it is MORE than a few hours away. Any moon base or future economy would be very dependent on earth, while Mars have more incentive to be independent and a real civilization backup.