They got more than Michigan wrong. They also had Clinton with a 90% chance of winning Indiana, and that's not the way it went.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-fo...

It's unfortunately burned into my mind, because of the 24 bets I made on the primaries this year, it's the only one I got wrong, but I lost $75 on that bet.