This fantasy that AI/robotics/self-driving vehicles is just around the corner is like fusion power - perpetually 15 years in the future. It'll happen, eventually Moore's law will make it possible, but it's not as close as people think.
And your comment about "The faster we tip the scale" is almost inhumane considering the impact. It needs to get worse before it can get better? I suppose that goes with "Never let a crisis go to waste..."
But that aside, if all that's left is basic cleaning then McDonalds could simply contract a cleaning service. I'd guess that a single team could service at least 10 fast food restaurants a day. And then how many years before running the cleaning service only requires one person?
Watson is not AI. Its just a marketing buzzword. Doctors will be replaced right after tenured professors and software developers... (not in 20 years).
millions?
<We will move from a society where it's expected that everyone work 40+ hours and sometimes two jobs to meet basic needs to a society where work is optional, and 20 hours is the norm.>
"We'll lose a bundle on each recipient, but we'll make it up in volume."
i guess if someone is on basic income then he will not be able to afford a family of his own; raising kids is quite expensive. A basic income receiver will also be out of luck if he has to support a member of his family who got into trouble, if your family is unable to be a potential source of security and everyone is alone on his own then the concept of family will become more brittle.
To me basic income sounds like a way to create a dependent underclass - very dependent on the state for that matter (and will probably vote for the party that is most likely to continue with the basic income policy - so it will likely be a politically agitated group). And that's not quite conductive to the idea of personal happiness...
Basic income is an attempt to deal with a growing number of people who are unemployable in the modern economy. I think a better way would be to find meaningful work for these people - maybe in such areas as caring for disabled and elderly or in education (i think we are out of luck with automating these tasks). This approach would be harder and costs more to implement than just dealing out the welfare checks, so it will probably not be adopted...
We already have that - and it's currently very hard for people on welfare and/or disability to ever pull themselves out of it. With basic income it becomes possible to start working 1 hour a week, then 2, then 3..., without having to worry about losing your benefits or getting in tax trouble.
> Basic income is an attempt to deal with a growing number of people who are unemployable in the modern economy. I think a better way would be to find meaningful work for these people - maybe in such areas as caring for disabled and elderly or in education (i think we are out of luck with automating these tasks).
If people find those things fulfilling to do themselves, they will do them (and basic income allows them to do it unpaid). If other people want them to do those things, they will pay for it. If no-one wants them to do those things, there's no value in them doing it.
So it will bring down salaries - why bother with paying a salary when you can get volunteers on basic income for free?
Unpaid work by basic income receivers is an interesting question on its own - on the side of the employee there would be the question of motivation; on the side of the employer there would be questions of reliability - can one trust an unpaid employee to appear at work reliably and in time ?
I'd expect it to bring down salaries for fulfilling or enjoyable work (or "work"), while pushing up salaries for less pleasant jobs.
Printing and mailing checks can be done almost fully automated and would close down millions of welfare buildings, and give people back dignity.
There's a stigma that you get when you're on public assistance or welfare. It creates a feeling of less self-worth. This causes you to believe that the best job you'll ever get is McDonald's - so why even try to better your circumstance.
GBI on the other hand goes to everyone - even the wealthy. The message is that we're all equal and it's basically a reverse citizen tax on the government to ensure everyone can live and grow in nurtured environments.
The world I see in the next 20 years - there will be no more truck drivers. Fast food restaurants will be run by 1 manager alone. Gas stations will be ran by self-serve kiosks, and be fully automated, as will be grocery stores - including re-stocking. Other jobs that will be gone: Surgeons / Doctors (probably not fully but the need will be a lot less because of AI like Watson, where you once needed 30+ doctors in a hospital you might need only 3 or 4.), construction workers, trash trucks, oil rig workers, fishing, pilots, military (replaced by drones / droids), manufacturing, etc...
We will move from a society where it's expected that everyone work 40+ hours and sometimes two jobs to meet basic needs to a society where work is optional, and 20 hours is the norm. More focus and time is spent with family and having experiences that truly enrich one's life. GBI gives people the freedom to also pursue entrepreneurism, startup ideas, music, art, writing, and any other number of hobbies and past times that could enrich society in general. Studies have shown that truly happy people aren't the ones who have the most 'stuff' it's the people who experience the most that life has to offer (i.e. traveling, events, concerts, etc...)
For us to get to GBI we need to hurry up the automation revolution -- I'm a Bernie Sanders supporter, and progressive democrat who's FOR robots at Wendy's and McDonald's as well as a $15+min wage... I see it coming. 40% of jobs will be gone by 2030 and never replaced. The faster we tip the scale and hit the dirt the faster government will need to respond or there will be riots when people are starving and losing jobs left and right. It needs to get worse before it can get better essentially.