A bit meta but can someone tell me if Warren Buffet is on course to win his bet[0]? It's set to expire next year.

[0] http://longbets.org/362/

There was an episode of Planet Money just a couple of months ago that says Buffett is indeed on track to win the bet:

http://www.npr.org/2016/03/10/469897691/armed-with-an-index-...

CAGR of the S&P500 from 1/1/2008 until the end of 2015 was 6.5%. No idea what fund of funds they used but it's probably not going to be trivial to beat that (+whatever 2016 holds) over the time span after fees.

Thanks guys! :)

I wonder what happens to long bets when the charity of the winner no longer exists by the time a bet ends.

This is defined in the rules:

2. The winnings (plus growth) are awarded with fanfare to the winner's preferred charity. The winner, if still alive, can change charities if desired (but not to multiple recipients). If the winner is no longer alive and the originally designated charity is gone or drastically changed, Long Bets may award the winnings to a charity deemed closest to the winner's original intentions.

http://longbets.org/procedure/

Thanks!

The most likely change would be for protocol to move from http to https (and for non-secure URIs to be 301 redirected/forced by HSTS) though I don't think that qualifies as a change under their rules.

Under "Detailed Terms":

> A 301 redirect from www.longbets.org/601 to a different URL containing that text would also fulfill those conditions.

Interestingly it only specifies one level of redirection. So if the redirect were from http to https, and then to some other URL, it seems like that would fail to satisfy the requirements as written.

I think that's being pedantic; multiple redirects really don't break the spirit of the clause.

The bet is for www.longbets.org/601, and does not include a http or https protocol. Amusingly enough www.longbets.org/601 currently redirects to longbets.org/601, though the detailed terms cover this.

The Detailed Terms section makes clear that it's for HTTP:

> …entering the characters http://www.longbets.org/601 into the address bar of a web browser or command line tool (like curl) OR using a web browser to follow a hyperlink that points to http://www.longbets.org/601 MUST …

He's actually already won. The original URL included www., the current one doesn't anymore.

> A 301 redirect from www.longbets.org/601 to a different URL containing that text would also fulfill those [winning] conditions.

The bet (and the referenced article) is about the availability of the resources at the end of those URLs - the URL itself is just a reference, or a pointer if you will to a resource.

> A 301 redirect from www.longbets.org/601 to a different URL containing that text would also fulfill those conditions.