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Re:Carl Icahn is Betting on a Stock Market Crash by cm2187 on Wednesday May 11, 2016 @07:52AM (#11674382)
My favorite chart is to superpose the S&P for the past 10 years with the size of the Fed balance sheet. It's almost a perfect match. What is certain is that the Fed B/S isn't going up anymore (but it isn't reducing either). I don't know if we are heading toward a crash, but unless we have QE4, stocks are certainly not going up.
Re:Carl Icahn is Betting on a Stock Market Crash by lujim on Wednesday May 11, 2016 @08:45AM (#11674718)
Negative interest rates and company stock buy backs might be able to allow markets to keep going for a while. Negative rates cause investors and sovereign wealth funds to pour money into equities. The Bank of Japan owns 50% of the ETFs in Japan. That should scare people.

Stock buy backs artificially inflate reported company earnings. Companies take on cheap debt to buy back shares of their own company (at historically high valuations) to keep investors happy and beat earnings estimates.

This game of musical chairs can run for a while.

Re:Carl Icahn is Betting on a Stock Market Crash by shostack on Wednesday May 11, 2016 @12:20PM (#11676682)
And analysts aren't wise to this practice? Wouldn't the market have priced in that charade already?
Re:Carl Icahn is Betting on a Stock Market Crash by lujim on Wednesday May 11, 2016 @01:28PM (#11677275)
Everyone knows it's happening, the real question is whether it is a charade or not. Buy backs are a legitimate practice for companies that want to reward shareholders and gain a bigger chunk of their own business. Nothing sketchy there. The question is why would a company like Nike want to buy back it's own stock at historically expensive valuations rather than use that money on new products or to expand their market share? Are they doing it to gain a bigger piece of their own business, or are they doing it to juice earnings because top line sales are decreasing and they need to beat earnings expectations to keep the share price up? The jury is still out.
Re:Carl Icahn is Betting on a Stock Market Crash by aminorex on Wednesday May 11, 2016 @11:24AM (#11676139)
The demographic cycle compels a bottom in person ratios around 2024, but markets are front-running machines, so, no, not much longer.
Re:Carl Icahn is Betting on a Stock Market Crash by riprowan on Wednesday May 11, 2016 @10:48AM (#11675782)
Do you have an example of such a chart for the terminally lazy such as myself?
Re:Carl Icahn is Betting on a Stock Market Crash by cm2187 on Wednesday May 11, 2016 @10:58AM (#11675895)
http://imgur.com/kOXtm8N

In white the S&P, in Green the size of the Fed balance sheet.

Re:Carl Icahn is Betting on a Stock Market Crash by toomuchtodo on Wednesday May 11, 2016 @03:54PM (#11678681)
Hot damn! I've been looking for such a chart for weeks but have been too busy/lazy to make one myself. Thank you!!
Re:Carl Icahn is Betting on a Stock Market Crash by stillusingvb6 on Wednesday May 11, 2016 @11:36AM (#11676239)
What are you using to generate that graph
Re:Carl Icahn is Betting on a Stock Market Crash by cm2187 on Wednesday May 11, 2016 @11:40AM (#11676281)
Bloomberg