Agreed, and I have no inside info at all -- they'll probably fail even, but it seems like there's a gulf between cautious optimism and whatever is going on here. As for the SpaceX comparison, if they do indeed send a mission to Mars in 2018, it will have been 16 years since the company was first founded with Elon's intention to go to Mars and 10 years after they first achieved orbit.. Hard things take time!