Re:Our Brain Uses Statistics to Calculate Confidence, Make D...
by nl on Thursday May 05, 2016 @03:24AM
(#11634513)
If your standard is that humans will apply Bayes' theorem correctly, completely intuitively, as more evidence becomes available, I think it will be very easy to falsify that.
Yes. And there is increasing evidence that this is correct. See[1]. If you can find a copy, I think [2] will address many of your concerns about seemingly irrational behavior being supported by statistical reasoning.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_approaches_to_brain_f...
Re:Our Brain Uses Statistics to Calculate Confidence, Make D...
by haberman on Thursday May 05, 2016 @04:56PM
(#11639610)
I disagree. I think this is evidence to the contrary:
That's not the theory of this specific paper, but the says that this researcher considers this paper a "first step" towards this more general theory.
> This theory is falsifiable, because you can ask people their confidence in the original measurements, their confidence in a decision depending on that, and then use Bayes' rule to see if those confidences have propagated.
If your standard is that humans will apply Bayes' theorem correctly, completely intuitively, as more evidence becomes available, I think it will be very easy to falsify that.