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Re:Preparing for the Future of Artificial Intelligence by dfsegoat on Wednesday May 04, 2016 @08:19AM (#11627776)
Gambler's fallacy.
Re:Preparing for the Future of Artificial Intelligence by xerophyte12932 on Wednesday May 04, 2016 @09:04AM (#11628005)
I haven't read that but I assume it goes along the lines of...

Gambler: "I already got five 6's. I can't possibly get another one. That's a statistical improbability!"

Wrong assumption: Past dice rolls affect future rolls where as dice rolls are independent. Its improbably to get six 6's in a row but GIVEN that you have 5 sixes, getting a sixth is just 1/6

Am I right?

Re:Preparing for the Future of Artificial Intelligence by imh on Wednesday May 04, 2016 @12:03PM (#11629284)
There's also a reverse version with the same mistaken assumption.

Gambler: "I already got five 6's. I must be on a roll! I'll surely get another one."

Re:Preparing for the Future of Artificial Intelligence by armitron on Thursday May 05, 2016 @04:39PM (#11639501)
The correct assumption to make in this case would be that the dice is loaded. Same decision, different reasoning.
Re:Preparing for the Future of Artificial Intelligence by xerophyte12932 on Monday May 09, 2016 @02:54AM (#11658028)
Well, getting five 6's in a row is 1/7776 , so I suppose it is debatable if one could establish the dice are loaded from such a small sample set.
Re:Preparing for the Future of Artificial Intelligence by dfsegoat on Monday May 09, 2016 @01:41PM (#11661621)
Hot hand fallacy
Re:Preparing for the Future of Artificial Intelligence by roel_v on Wednesday May 04, 2016 @09:38AM (#11628205)
woosh