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Re:Bank of Japan Is an Estimated Top 10 Holder in 90% of the... by brandur on Monday April 25, 2016 @01:12PM (#11565672)
There's no question that it's a major factor. Even well-heeled individuals/couples don't take out mortgages on the order of $800,000 if they don't get minuscule rates on the order of ~3%. Banks wouldn't be able to hand out those rates for spans of ~30 years unless the government gives them access to cheap money and guarantees the loan.
Re:Bank of Japan Is an Estimated Top 10 Holder in 90% of the... by refurb on Monday April 25, 2016 @01:52PM (#11565956)
Agree entirely. Once interest rates rise, you'll see a direct impact on SF housing prices.

People who can afford an $800,000 mortgage at 3%, can't borrow anywhere near that amount when rates are 6% (closer to the historical average).

Re:Bank of Japan Is an Estimated Top 10 Holder in 90% of the... by ChuckMcM on Monday April 25, 2016 @02:00PM (#11566015)
Yeah, it goes down to $563,000 if its 6%, a 30% drop in affordable home price.
Re:Bank of Japan Is an Estimated Top 10 Holder in 90% of the... by ryandrake on Monday April 25, 2016 @03:54PM (#11566846)
It's funny, as someone who was still a kid back in the 80s, the idea of a 6% mortgage sounds ridiculous to me. How on Earth could someone afford to pay all that interest? Yet, mortgage rates were at times in the past over 15% (!!!)
Re:Bank of Japan Is an Estimated Top 10 Holder in 90% of the... by rco8786 on Monday April 25, 2016 @04:10PM (#11566951)
It's not so bad when the actual price of the home is 30% lower.
Re:Bank of Japan Is an Estimated Top 10 Holder in 90% of the... by ChuckMcM on Monday April 25, 2016 @05:23PM (#11567481)
The interest rate on my first house in Sunnyvale was 13% and it adjusted every 6 months. Of course the house cost $153,000. Still it took both my wife and I working (she is also an engineer) to make the payments and we didn't have kids yet.

At the same time my Vanguard money market account was paying 15% annual interest. That was pretty awesome.

Re:Bank of Japan Is an Estimated Top 10 Holder in 90% of the... by WaylonKenning on Monday April 25, 2016 @07:31PM (#11568233)
In New Zealand, interest rates were around 8% when I was growing up, and were around 20% when my parents bought a house. Would have been cheaper to put it on your credit card...
Re:Bank of Japan Is an Estimated Top 10 Holder in 90% of the... by tonfa on Monday April 25, 2016 @05:43PM (#11567614)
Because inflation? I assume the "real interest rate" was much lower.
Re:Bank of Japan Is an Estimated Top 10 Holder in 90% of the... by distances on Monday April 25, 2016 @03:23PM (#11566626)
Not being from US, are most mortgages there fixed for their lifetimes or tied to fluctuating interest rates?
Re:Bank of Japan Is an Estimated Top 10 Holder in 90% of the... by brandur on Monday April 25, 2016 @03:43PM (#11566781)
Many are fixed for the entire duration of the mortgage's length (e.g. 25 years). You can find variable rates as well though.

Being from Canada, I couldn't believe that this was possible when I first came down here because it seems to defy belief that any bank would take on the risk to extend a loan at such low-interest over that kind of time frame. It turns out that it's possible because the banks aren't taking any risk; instead it's all outsourced to US taxpayers ;)

Re:Bank of Japan Is an Estimated Top 10 Holder in 90% of the... by gozur88 on Monday April 25, 2016 @04:29PM (#11567078)
That's very recent, though. We had thirty year mortgages long before the government started holding most of the paper.

Banks have been selling loans for ages - when I bought my first house in the '90s the bank which originated the loan sold it to a life insurance company four days after escrow closed. After a few years that insurance company sold it to someone else.

Life insurance is a good fit for mortgages. Insurance companies need a safe investment to pay out when people die, and usually the payout isn't inflation adjusted.

Besides, if you have to invest money for the long term but can't (by statute or temperament) handle much risk, what are you going to invest in? Twenty year T-Bills are at 2.30%.

Re:Bank of Japan Is an Estimated Top 10 Holder in 90% of the... by JumpCrisscross on Monday April 25, 2016 @05:22PM (#11567467)
> Twenty year T-Bills are at 2.30%

FYI, T-bills have maturities of one year or less, T-notes two to ten years, and T-bonds 10 to 30 years. The term "Treasuries" helpfully covers all three.

Re:Bank of Japan Is an Estimated Top 10 Holder in 90% of the... by distances on Tuesday April 26, 2016 @03:34PM (#11574873)
Selling the loans forward sounds a bit weird system. In Finland it's usually the other way around -- customers may take their loans with them to another bank. This happens every now and then when competing banks offer better margins on the loans, or if customer isn't happy with the bank's service.
Re:Bank of Japan Is an Estimated Top 10 Holder in 90% of the... by NamTaf on Monday April 25, 2016 @11:27PM (#11569232)
Yes, which blows my mind too since APRs (as the US calls them) are standard in my experience here in Australia except that our banks tie the interest rate to the reserve rate which is revised monthly, not yearly. Fixing an interest rate is something you do for a span of 3-5 years, not the life of the loan.

The US does a lot of things strangely, this is but one of them :)