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Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by vezycash on Saturday April 23, 2016 @08:56AM (#11555353)
The last sentence is the best part of the article. "When I suggested this to friends in the Pentagon they said, 'My God, that’s terrible. Having to KILL someone would distort the President’s judgment. He might never push the button.'"

From their response, killing through a button isn't killing.

Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by kazinator on Saturday April 23, 2016 @10:42AM (#11555704)
Killing via button is killing many of them "them". Hacking the innocent's chest is killing one of "us".

Part of the dilemma in this thought experiment is basically about weighing the worth of the lives of unknown numbers of "them", against one of "us".

The President must distinguish "them" or "us", otherwise he has no business leading the country in a war. He must treat the killing of one of "us" with a different judgment.

The other part of this is remote controlled killing versus visceral engagement. Suppose that pushing the button is the right thing to do for the country, but the President has a personal aversion against the bloody engagement form of killing. As President, he's supposed to push, but a personal, psychological reason is preventing him from doing it as a man.

Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by joushou on Saturday April 23, 2016 @11:14AM (#11555867)
There is no "them" or "us". "They" are just people. They are rarely even people that we disagree with - they're innocent civilians that were unlucky and lived in what turned into a war zone, or soldiers that are simply following orders to protect what they consider their home. The decision is whether or not to take hundreds, thousands, or even millions of lives exactly like the one of the navy officer with the launch code embedded in his chest. Lives that had nothing to do with the conflict at all.

The "bad guys", the ones you might actually refer to as "them", are sitting somewhere comfortable, far out of reach of any of this. Their only interaction in this is that they pressed a button.

Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by whack on Saturday April 23, 2016 @11:21AM (#11555905)
It's scary that even here on HN, a comment like this would get downvoted. Seeing the world through a lens of "us" and "them", and seeing "them" as being less worthy of our humanity & consideration, has led to more human-atrocities throughout history, than almost anything else.
Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by Sharlin on Saturday April 23, 2016 @12:44PM (#11556249)
It's pretty clear that the grandparent meant that for better or worse, ingroup-outgroup bias is a very real thing in human psychology abd sociology, and there wouldn't be many wars without demonization of the outgroup. I saw no indication that they actually thought that this is a good distinction to make. Is-ought problem.
Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by ChristianBundy on Saturday April 23, 2016 @12:57PM (#11556315)
But there has to be an "us" and "them" unless we live in a truly post-scarcity society.
Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by joushou on Saturday April 23, 2016 @03:03PM (#11556940)
You can label whatever group you find yourself in to be "us", and the rest as "them", but they're no different than you. You're just being selfish in valuing your life more than theirs.

This selfishness if of course natural for any human, but that does not make it better.

Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by maxander on Saturday April 23, 2016 @01:17PM (#11556407)
Does there have to be? It seems more accurate to say that we like there to be.
Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by u_me_him on Saturday April 23, 2016 @11:43AM (#11555991)
It is naive to think we are all one happy human race. I wish it were so but it isn't. The "others" will have no problem killing you and dance on your grave. I guess that is why the saying goes "If you want peace, prepare for war"
Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by coldtea on Saturday April 23, 2016 @11:59AM (#11556068)
Usually, and judging by the numbers, it's the inverse.

It's the self justified "us" than do most damage, not some "others".

Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by joushou on Saturday April 23, 2016 @02:50PM (#11556852)
It doesn't matter which army is battling me, whether it is Russian, Chinese or American. They will have no problem killing me, because that's their job, and there is war. Dancing on my grave would be difficult, because that would require retrieving my body.

I'm not saying that war is not necessary, but pretending that you're fighting zombies thirsting for nothing but your blood is idiotic. The soldiers you're fighting joined their army to protect their people. The people itself most likely just want to passively continue with their life, not understanding what the war is about, knowing nothing but the date of the first bomb. The people that started the war is sitting somewhere cozy, out of reach.

Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by kazinator on Sunday April 24, 2016 @10:59AM (#11559868)
> The soldiers you're fighting joined their army to protect their people.

Simply not true in the case of, say, an aggressor who initiates conflict by invading other countries.

Many a times there is definitely a right an wrong in war.

The side which is right has no choice but to respond with aggression. Fight, or else be laughably annihilated for the sake of a pacifist ideology.

Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by marcus_holmes on Saturday April 23, 2016 @12:03PM (#11556081)
> The "others" will have no problem killing you and dance on your grave.

Any evidence for that?

Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by u_me_him on Saturday April 23, 2016 @01:06PM (#11556351)
Read a history book. The human nature is well documented.
Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by marcus_holmes on Monday April 25, 2016 @03:52AM (#11562994)
You're not reading the same history books, obviously.

Because again and again, humans are well-documented to NOT dance on each other's graves. We consistently pull back from the brink of destroying the "other" and not only let them live, but help them rebuild.

Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by forgetsusername on Saturday April 23, 2016 @12:00PM (#11556072)
>Seeing the world through a lens of "us" and "them"

And yet you demonstrate it yourself with, "I expect them to do it, but not us in the HN community. We're different here."

Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by fsloth on Saturday April 23, 2016 @11:51AM (#11556031)
Armchair psychology: I suppose media can be blamed partly for this view. Bad news sell, and the further away places are correspondingly, stereotypically, only the worst of the news are of reporting value. Thus, people in far away places are associated with fear and chaos.

Also: Baseline human psychology is tribalistic and violent. We need education and culture to behave as modern - and sustenance amd safety.

Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by panarky on Saturday April 23, 2016 @01:36PM (#11556492)
The media give the people what they want.
Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by tomjen3 on Saturday April 23, 2016 @12:45PM (#11556252)
When I come to put you up against the wall for holding dangerous to the nation ideas like that, will you still think of me as one of your own?
Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by joushou on Saturday April 23, 2016 @03:00PM (#11556915)
I have no one labelled as "my own", at least not in the nationalist/patriotic sense. My family and friends my go into that category if we really must, but that's it.

If you put a gun to my head, I'm certainly not going to care if you're my local baker or a North Korean soldier, just to name a random nation. Hell, I'll probably have sympathies for the soldier, as they are just doing what they were told, like any other soldier would. Getting angry at them would be pointless, although I'd of course do my best to fight for survival, and if I came out the winner, I would be upset that the life I had to take was not the life that was to blame.

For the baker, it would be hard to tell if the hand was forced, or if the idea of slaughter was of their own making.

Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by ekianjo on Saturday April 23, 2016 @10:51AM (#11555751)
> Killing via button is killing many of them "them". Hacking the innocent's chest is killing one of "us".

Pressing the button means killing of lot of "us" in the end too, because there's no such thing as one-way nuclear exchanges nowadays, with subs ready to fire from anywhere in the world.

Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by Retric on Saturday April 23, 2016 @11:13AM (#11555857)
Also, fallout is not restricted by borders. For example US and USSR where within 60 miles of each other at there closest borders during the Cold War. India and Pakistan share a border.
Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by newjersey on Saturday April 23, 2016 @11:18AM (#11555885)
Which is why we have proxy wars where we "protect" or "liberate" peoples who are not super power themselves and do not have second strike capability.
Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by JamilD on Saturday April 23, 2016 @11:24AM (#11555918)
> The President must distinguish "them" or "us", otherwise he has no business leading the country in a war.

Starting from the 60's, the concept of MAD and a truly global, total war made this distinction irrelevant. As soon as you push that button, you're not only condemning "them" to death.

Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by coldtea on Saturday April 23, 2016 @11:59AM (#11556064)
Oh, the hypocrisy.

As if the establishment haven't killed (and allowed the killing) of tons of "us" without flinching an eye...

From this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kent_State_shootings

to much worse stuff. But suddenly when it becomes matter of open public scrutiny it's some kind of big conundrum...

Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by GunboatDiplomat on Saturday April 23, 2016 @04:25PM (#11557267)
Do you really think that anyone ordered that? Do you think the President, or Governor of Ohio said, "You know what? Shoot the peaceful protestors!" Of course not. A few Guardsmen panicked and started shooting in a stressful situation (you really shouldn't use the National Guard for police work unless they're MPs). I'd bet money no one above the rank of Corporal was involved in the decision, and probably no one above PFC.
Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by coldtea on Sunday April 24, 2016 @01:06AM (#11558616)
Isn't that a naive assumption of how things work? Do you really think the President (or Governor of Ohio) are actually involved in the nitty gritty of things?

They just make their general discontent known ("oh, those pesky anti-vietnam protesters" etc), allow for the cultivation of an "us and them" dynamic, and then their people ensure that for years the police is not just allowed to do bad things but even encouraged (with protecting policemen that stepped out of line, giving promotions to their leadership if not directly, then after some such scandal gets forgotten, etc).

From McCarthy and Hoover, to the treatment of the human rights activists, the 68 democratic convention and onwards to this, the Watergate and more, it's not about some "bad apple" or "stressful panicked" actor, but about systematic cultivation of such solutions.

Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by hga on Sunday April 24, 2016 @07:20AM (#11559309)
Well, as someone alive and politically aware during the period, and who's studied that event, no, that Manichean world view doesn't match what happened in the cultural '60s in the least, a period which includes much of the '70s.

For one thing, "those pesky anti-vietnam protesters" had burned down the ROTC building a couple of days before, there was quite a bit of violent rioting prior to the shooting and the National Guardsmen had already had to use their bayonets to manage it (when bayonets get fixed and bloodied you know things got very serious). Today's "campus protests" are utterly farcical by comparison.

In general, violent civil insurrection was common, and the authorities management was very mild by the international standards of the time, and there was plenty of pressure from the bottom up for much more strenuous measures. Note it's the only major incident of that type in that period, and is a trifle when compared to atrocities like Waco.

McCarthy? Please, if you don't know what the phrase "submit to party discipline" means, and that it resulted in every member of the Communist Party of the USA (CPUSA), back when it was popular and selective in admittance (through the '30s at minimum), was a self-declared traitor, well, read up on what the other side was saying, or things like the Venona decrypts which eventually revealed just how accurate McCarthy's raw information was.

And note how the authorities' flaccid response to GRU and NKVD spying through these traitors like Hiss paved the way for crude men like McCarthy. That's a lesson you'll see from the Weimar Republic to a lot of what's happening today, and there's plenty of history of this sort of thing in pre-modern times.

Hoover was a bad apple, I'll grant you, and the rest of the barrel remains rotten to this day; has the FBI Hostage "Rescue" Team ever actually rescued anyone? Latest is their shooting in the only fatality resulting from the Bundy Oregon mess, and then trying to cover that up.

Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by tfm on Saturday April 23, 2016 @12:03PM (#11556084)
Well, you're defining "us" too broadly. If you redefine it as students vs National Guard then it's not hypocritical at all, just ghastly.
Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by fweespee_ch on Saturday April 23, 2016 @10:52AM (#11555758)
Honestly, large scale nuclear weapon deployment is going to kill alot of "us" so symbolically killing one of us is a better representation of reality.

There is never going to be a one-sided nuclear exchange when a substantial number of powerful, ideologically opposed countries have access to ICBMs.

Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by GunboatDiplomat on Saturday April 23, 2016 @11:40AM (#11555984)
Seems to me that the President is not going to push the button unless someone else has already pressed theirs, and the missiles are on their way.
Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by scarmig on Saturday April 23, 2016 @11:45AM (#11555999)
Only two countries have formally declared a no-first-strike policy: the USSR and the PRC. The USA has always reserved the right to initiate a nuclear exchange with another country.
Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by Turing_Machine on Saturday April 23, 2016 @02:11PM (#11556627)
Given that those two countries were demonstrably not averse to killing millions of their own citizens, one might perhaps take those assurances with a very large grain of salt.
Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by GunboatDiplomat on Saturday April 23, 2016 @04:19PM (#11557245)
Yes, but that's different than that being a scenario which is remotely feasible (it's not). Not renouncing a first strike during the Cold War was a measure to counter massive Soviet conventional numerical advantages in the European theater. France also does not guarantee no first use, because it wanted the Russians to know that crossing into France would necessarily mean nuclear retaliation on their cities (as if the Russians made it to the French border, the conventional war would essentially be lost for NATO).

In short, there are no realistic circumstances under which the US would launch a first strike with nuclear weapons. The political cost is too high, and the benefits could never outweigh the costs.

Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by 8note on Saturday April 23, 2016 @12:16PM (#11556135)
also of note, the US has precedent of making the first strike: against Japan.
Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by hga on Saturday April 23, 2016 @12:23PM (#11556164)
First only if you don't count minor details like Pearl Harbor. And given that we were systematically destroying their urban areas, just less efficiently albeit with more casualties, it's again a different thing.
Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by csydas on Saturday April 23, 2016 @12:51PM (#11556284)
The policy the above poster is referring to is No First Use [1], which is specifically about the use of nuclear weapons as a means of warfare. The Pearl Harbor attack, as it was not nuclear in nature, would not be relevant the No First Use policy if it were being followed to the letter and spirit.

How most nuclear powers would actually react to large-scale non-nuclear aggression is of course a whole different discussion.

1 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_first_use

Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by vidarh on Saturday April 23, 2016 @12:43PM (#11556244)
More efficiently.

Hiroshima and Nagasaki were not the most destructive bombing runs in WWII.

The March 9th 1945 bombings of Tokyo were far more destructive.

Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by Zigurd on Saturday April 23, 2016 @11:30AM (#11555945)
> The President must distinguish "them" or "us", otherwise he has no business leading the country in a war.

This shows just how much 20th c. nationalism still holds sway in many minds when it is as ridiculous as sports fandom.

Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by unethical_ban on Saturday April 23, 2016 @11:38AM (#11555980)
All lives are important, but my neighbors and family are more important than strangers.
Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by Zigurd on Saturday April 23, 2016 @11:39AM (#11555982)
On a connected planet, who is not your neighbor?
Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by nbb on Saturday April 23, 2016 @12:04PM (#11556090)
Is this a topology question?
Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by GunboatDiplomat on Saturday April 23, 2016 @04:26PM (#11557270)
People who live far enough away that I don't see them with any regularity and whom I have no emotional or social connection.
Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by Zeeem on Sunday April 24, 2016 @01:35AM (#11558679)
Sounds rather selfish
Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by Zigurd on Sunday April 24, 2016 @09:30AM (#11559613)
Wallowing in tribalism is like wallowing in the way humans suck at statistics, while pledging allegiance to one's casino.
Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by dasil003 on Saturday April 23, 2016 @12:04PM (#11556086)
Sports fandom is much less ridiculous because it is at least a benign outlet for the human tribal mentality.
Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by oldmanjay on Saturday April 23, 2016 @01:15PM (#11556395)
Tribalism is a fundamental facet of our species. Aspiring to act as if it weren't is not a strategy likely to achieve much beyond lamentations.
Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by Zigurd on Saturday April 23, 2016 @01:34PM (#11556482)
Nationalism != tribalism. Nationalism exploits tribalism, in the way that casinos exploit other natural cognitive disabilities. That does not doom all of us to losing our savings at the casino. In fact gambling has a much longer history than nationalism. 20th c. nationalism is a johnny-come-lately, like video poker machines, and could be a passing fad.
Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by throwaway2048 on Saturday April 23, 2016 @11:00AM (#11555800)
"Gentlemen, you can't fight in here! This is the War Room!"
Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by throwaway2048 on Saturday April 23, 2016 @10:45AM (#11555717)
Remember this when people like raiyner and tptacek tell us that drones don't change warfare.
Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by jMyles on Saturday April 23, 2016 @11:00AM (#11555799)
I was thinking the same thing about the same two commenters, even though I do definitely enjoy their contributions.
Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by GunboatDiplomat on Saturday April 23, 2016 @11:41AM (#11555985)
They don't change it any more than smart bombs and missiles already had. They just widen that change somewhat.
Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by tptacek on Saturday April 23, 2016 @07:51PM (#11557920)
Tonight the music seems so loud --- I wish that we could lose this crowd! Maybe it's better this way: we'd hurt each other with the things we'd want to say. We could have been so good together! We could have lived this dance forever! But now? Who's gonna dance with me?

Please stay!

Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by tptacek on Sunday April 24, 2016 @11:36AM (#11559984)
You think telling me I can kill people with my mind powers is going to make me write fewer HN comments? YOU DON'T KNOW ME AT ALL.
Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by shrugger on Saturday April 23, 2016 @10:39AM (#11555682)
Wow, that really is fascinating.

I wonder what else people would be more willing to do by pushing a button rather than doing it themselves.

I mean, it's not surprising that gov higher-ups would incinerate human beings with a button, dump toxic waste on people from a plane with a button, poison water supplies, launch tear-gas from choppers, etc.

They should be forced to open their eyes and WATCH the effects of their buttons. Like Clockwork Orange or something.

Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by wlievens on Saturday April 23, 2016 @10:52AM (#11555762)
Basically you just incentivised the cruelest, nastiest sadists as the best candidates for high office. What could go wrong?
Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by shrugger on Saturday April 23, 2016 @11:08AM (#11555835)
Hmm, that was a shortcoming I did not foresee.
Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by dave2000 on Saturday April 23, 2016 @10:46AM (#11555720)
The problem with that is that just like with antibiotics you're left with the ones which they don't kill, you'll be left with those who would actually rather enjoy watching people getting killed.
Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by shrugger on Saturday April 23, 2016 @11:58AM (#11556061)
Yeah but if you are dying of a disease, surely it's wise to do SOMETHING, right?

I mean, what's the solution to these types of problem where the adversary keeps getting better and better? I feel like Forever War touched on this too, where the Taurans just kept getting more and more advanced, and it was always an arm race to have the better technology and better weapons and better tactics, etc.

Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by dave2000 on Saturday April 23, 2016 @12:58PM (#11556317)
The answer is to vote into power people who don't wish to dominate other countries.
Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by rwc on Saturday April 23, 2016 @10:41AM (#11555696)
It's amazing what people will do with a button if told to do so by an authority figure:

http://www.simplypsychology.org/milgram.html

Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by colejohnson66 on Saturday April 23, 2016 @11:35AM (#11555967)
But actually _hack someone up_? I'm sure if you dehumanized the "key carrier" like the Nazis did, you could probably get someone to do it. But if you've dehumanized someone enough you're willing to hack them up to follow an order, you wouldn't be working with them.

The American military fighting in Vietnam dehumanized the Vietnam soldiers in order to justify killing them, but imagine if one of those American soldiers were told by his commanding officer that in order to kill more "Charlies", he'd have to kill his friend he's been fighting with since the beginning. Sure, you'll probably find someone crazy enough to do so, but a lot of people wouldn't do it.

TLDR: It's different when it's someone you work with

Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by chrisseaton on Saturday April 23, 2016 @10:36AM (#11555668)
This argument makes absolutely no sense.

Can you agree that sometimes it is morally just and legally permitted to use violence?

Can you also imagine that someone may know that it is the right thing to order this violence, but be put off by physically having to hack someone up themselves?

If so, do you now see the practical problem that the friends in the Pentagon were warning of? With the capsule in the person you are clouding the judgement of the president and making it harder for them to make a cool assessment of the right course of action, not adding some kind of clever moral check. Can't you see that?

If you want to know more about this issue, read up on the 'trolley problem'. It's a more complex moral issue than your snarky comment implies.

Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by vidarh on Saturday April 23, 2016 @10:44AM (#11555715)
The problem is whether they "know that it is the right thing" vs. just do it because the negative repercussions are not felt strongly enough to deter him in circumstances when it is not the right thing.

Perhaps the butcher knife and the capsule is too extreme, but on the other hand, perhaps just having to issue some codes is too easy.

The situations where a nuclear counter-attack serves any moral purpose are limited enough that such thought experiment are worthwhile means or considering what level of deterrence should be in place.

Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by GunboatDiplomat on Saturday April 23, 2016 @11:43AM (#11555989)
Let's be honest - the President is not going to be pushing the button unless enemy missiles are already in the air. In that situation, we're all screwed, and a retaliatory launch is the appropriate action. Under that circumstance, the President should not be required to hack someone open in order to do the right thing.
Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by danbruc on Saturday April 23, 2016 @12:17PM (#11556143)
Why is it the right thing to do? A lot of people are already dead or about to die in the immediate future, why would you want to kill even more people, most of whom are not responsible for the attack? It's just pitiable revenge unless you specifically try to deter further attacks which may or may not be necessary and effectively achieved by the use of nuclear weapons.
Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by GunboatDiplomat on Saturday April 23, 2016 @04:11PM (#11557211)
Why is revenge pitiable? If your enemies are ruthless (and they are), then they need to believe you to be ruthless as well, so they believe you WILL launch a retaliatory strike and destroy them if they launch a first strike.
Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by danbruc on Saturday April 23, 2016 @05:03PM (#11557411)
I am not a native English speaker, so maybe I choose the wrong word here but I think it fits according to the dictionary. Revenge is a bad thing, especially in this situation, you do exactly what you condemn, you kill a lot of innocent people. You try to appear strong, you tell everyone that you will lunch retaliation strikes, but the leaders of this other country don't give a shit, they really hate you and launch a first strike. Then they hide in a bunker. And now? You really want to nuke the people of that country? You won't hit the leaders and the people didn't do anything to you. Chances are that they hate the leaders as much as you do. So why on earth would you do that?
Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by GunboatDiplomat on Saturday April 23, 2016 @05:28PM (#11557496)
>Revenge is a bad thing, especially in this situation, you do exactly what you condemn, you kill a lot of innocent people.

I disagree. The instinct for revenge serves a very important purpose in stabilizing society. If I know you will want revenge should I kill your brother, it makes me less likely to do so, and vice versa. Revenge is also the basis of the justice system, though obviously not its total extent. For example, if you kidnap someone, we do exactly what we condemn and forcibly hold you in a facility for a number of years or life. And yet the moral implications of that are different because of the differing situation.

>You try to appear strong, you tell everyone that you will lunch retaliation strikes, but the leaders of this other country don't give a shit, they really hate you and launch a first strike.

Appearing weak doesn't prevent a first strike by our opponents either. In fact, it increases likelihood of one. So if our options are appear strong or weak, and appearing weak has grave consequences, I will appear strong.

>You really want to nuke the people of that country? You won't hit the leaders and the people didn't do anything to you. Chances are that they hate the leaders as much as you do. So why on earth would you do that?

The people are guilty of allowing a criminal regime to initiate nuclear warfare against another party. No individual or small clique (small enough to fit in a bunker) can launch a nuclear first strike without the cooperation of a large, representative sample of their nation. They are complicit. They launched a strike. They will suffer and die.

Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by danbruc on Saturday April 23, 2016 @06:26PM (#11557680)
I disagree. The instinct for revenge serves a very important purpose in stabilizing society. If I know you will want revenge should I kill your brother, it makes me less likely to do so, and vice versa. Revenge is also the basis of the justice system, though obviously not its total extent. For example, if you kidnap someone, we do exactly what we condemn and forcibly hold you in a facility for a number of years or life. And yet the moral implications of that are different because of the differing situation.

Revenge is not supposed to be the basis of any modern justice system, we don't lock people up to make them suffer, we do in order to change them, to make them not commit crimes again, to make them honor the rules of the society they live in. This necessarily involves an element of force, acting against the will of the criminal, but the motive is not revenge. We actually try to avoid revenge as much as we can, we condemn vigilantism because people act irrationally and are likely to overreact or even go after the wrong one. Revenge is not stabilizing, it is destabilizing.

Appearing weak doesn't prevent a first strike by our opponents either. In fact, it increases likelihood of one. So if our options are appear strong or weak, and appearing weak has grave consequences, I will appear strong.

If you really believe this to be true, you have to conclude that it is irresponsible for any country not to try to obtain nuclear weapons. You would have to support North Korea to obtain nuclear weapons because that will reduce the likelihood of war. Nuclear disarmament would be a stupid idea. You are suggesting that humans are egoistic greedy assholes always wanting to just conquer the entire world, to grab all the resources and the only thing that prevents them from doing this are the expected costs and causalities of the conflicts. It is a bit like suggesting that wearing sexy cloths is a bad thing because it provokes getting raped. Being strong and able to fight an attacker is not the same thing as being able and willing to nuke innocent people. The right thing to do is building missile defense capabilities, that might actually save your people. And you of course don't do that in order to gain first strike capabilities because you no longer have to fear retaliation strikes, you actually do it to have a strong defense against attackers. You don't develop or get rid of you offensive weapons to show that you really do it for defense and not for improving your first strike capabilities.

The people are guilty of allowing a criminal regime to initiate nuclear warfare against another party. No individual or small clique (small enough to fit in a bunker) can launch a nuclear first strike without the cooperation of a large, representative sample of their nation. They are complicit. They launched a strike. They will suffer and die.

So if a dictator forcefully acquires the power in a country, the people are guilty? It is immoral if they just try to survive instead of resisting and risking getting killed? The people in North Korea really enjoy their liefs and support the regime? Which by the way certainly fits into a bunker. Is a mother guilty in case her child, despite her best effort, becomes a murderer? Should we kill the mother in revenge for unleashing her child onto the world? Just throw her into jail for a decade or two?

Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by GunboatDiplomat on Saturday April 23, 2016 @10:03PM (#11558259)
>Revenge is not supposed to be the basis of any modern justice system, we don't lock people up to make them suffer, we do in order to change them, to make them not commit crimes again, to make them honor the rules of the society they live in.

That's patently untrue. The very notion of justice is built upon revenge. To say modern justice systems aren't based on it is to say they float in the air, founded upon nothing.

>If you really believe this to be true, you have to conclude that it is irresponsible for any country not to try to obtain nuclear weapons.

Well, yes, it is eminently sensible in many situations to obtain nuclear weapons for your country. That doesn't mean I have to support them doing so, as it is not necessarily in MY interest for them to do so, even if it is in their own interest.

> You are suggesting that humans are egoistic greedy assholes always wanting to just conquer the entire world, to grab all the resources and the only thing that prevents them from doing this are the expected costs and causalities of the conflicts.

Our domination of the planet suggests this is the case.

>It is a bit like suggesting that wearing sexy cloths is a bad thing because it provokes getting raped.

No, it's not.

>So if a dictator forcefully acquires the power in a country, the people are guilty?

A dictator cannot gain power without the support of a large segment of the population.

> It is immoral if they just try to survive instead of resisting and risking getting killed?

Yes. It is immoral not to resist evil.

>Is a mother guilty in case her child, despite her best effort, becomes a murderer?

What does that have to do with the price of tea in China?

Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by danbruc on Saturday April 23, 2016 @11:27PM (#11558428)
That's patently untrue. The very notion of justice is built upon revenge. To say modern justice systems aren't based on it is to say they float in the air, founded upon nothing.

Citation needed. »Justifications for punishment include retribution, deterrence, rehabilitation, and incapacitation.« [1] Note that retribution is not revenge and that retribution is probably the most controversial justification for legal punishment. [2] What good does it do, whom does it help?

Well, yes, it is eminently sensible in many situations to obtain nuclear weapons for your country. That doesn't mean I have to support them doing so, as it is not necessarily in MY interest for them to do so, even if it is in their own interest.

Why would it not be in your interest unless you want to attack that other country? You argued that not having nuclear weapons increases the risk of being attacked, so more nuclear weapons should reduce the likelihood of armed conflicts which in turn means a more stable world which benefits everyone (besides weapons manufacturers and the like).

Our domination of the planet suggests this is the case.

How does that follow? The dominant species on a planet can certainly be benevolent. I grant you that humanity had and probably always will have a fair share of assholes and that they are good at getting into influential positions, but without good additional arguments I wilt not grant you that it is a fundamental aspect of humans that will forever prevent us from living together in peace. We certainly still have to go a long way, but we also have already come a long way.

No, it's not.

If you don't have nuclear weapons you increase the risk of being attacked, you should really consider getting some.

If you wear sexy cloths (not wear non-sexy cloths) you increase the risk of being rapped, you should really consider getting some non-sexy cloths.

A dictator cannot gain power without the support of a large segment of the population.

A coup d'état does neither require the participation nor the support of a large fraction of the population.

Yes. It is immoral not to resist evil.

That is a bold statement. How far does that go? If I see someone pointing a gun at somebody, should I try to intervene even if it is likely that I don't stand a chance? Is it my moral obligation to travel to North Korea and try to topple regime?

What does that have to do with the price of tea in China?

You argued that the people are responsible for the actions of their leaders. It is admittedly not the best analogy but wouldn't it similarly follow that a mother is responsible for the actions of her child?

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punishment

[2] http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/legal-punishment/

Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by mdpopescu on Saturday April 23, 2016 @12:47PM (#11556268)
This is the second time I've seen this statement (the president won't launch nuclear missiles without being attacked first). Given that this is demonstrably false in the case of the US, I'm wondering what you're basing this on.

(The US has never been bombed by any other nation but it has bombed a couple dozens. In the case of nukes, it is the only nation that has used them against another country.)

Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by GunboatDiplomat on Saturday April 23, 2016 @04:15PM (#11557228)
The US has never been bombed? That's patently false. The American Philippines? Pearl Harbor? The balloon bombs? Attu & Kiska? None of that rings a bell?

At the time of their introduction, nuclear weapons were not yet understood as qualitatively different from an equally powerful amount of conventional weapons. The qualitative difference observed after Hiroshima and Nagasaki helped establish this qualitative difference in the minds of people.

Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by vidarh on Saturday April 23, 2016 @12:49PM (#11556276)
If it is so obviously the right thing, then "being required to hack someone open" shouldn't matter. That is the point of the thought exercise: To ask what kind of sacrifice is a suitable deterrent to ensure that a counterstrike is only ordered when it is sufficiently obvious that it is the right thing.
Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by chrisseaton on Saturday April 23, 2016 @01:08PM (#11556363)
But you could know that it's obviously the right thing, and so know that it's the right thing to do to hack the person open, but still find it hard to actually physically do it.

Having the grit and resolution to hack someone open and being able to make a good decision about using weapons are unrelated. Why conflate them?

Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by vidarh on Saturday April 23, 2016 @01:13PM (#11556386)
It's a thought experiment. It does not have to be hacking him up. The point is exactly to create a barrier that is sufficiently hard to cross to make the person think twice about making the choice.

An alternative might be to have the person carry the suitcase with orders never to surrender it, forcing you to be prepared to shoot him or order him shot if he can't be subdued, or any number of "easier" variants.

Part of the point is forcing people to think about why it is appropriate to order the murder of millions of innocent civilians if you are unwilling to kill a single person face to face.

There may be valid answers, such as if you have reasons to worry about further, more destructive additional strikes and want to try to take out their capabilities. But there are also many digusting reasons, such as being willing to carry out mass murder on innocents out of a desire for vengeance.

Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by hga on Saturday April 23, 2016 @01:20PM (#11556420)
Eh, it was a propaganda attack on "Warmonger Reagan", who'd just become President, and the military he supported, disguised as a thought experiment.
Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by vidarh on Saturday April 23, 2016 @01:49PM (#11556548)
There's no reason it can't be both.
Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by GunboatDiplomat on Saturday April 23, 2016 @04:13PM (#11557216)
The knowledge that launching a first strike will invariably result in most of the nation being wiped out in the enemies retaliation is knowledge enough to prevent a first strike from being launched in all circumstances.
Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by 8note on Saturday April 23, 2016 @12:23PM (#11556160)
I don't think a president Trump would have any reservations about nuking "terrorists' families"
Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by Zigurd on Saturday April 23, 2016 @12:16PM (#11556138)
> ...and a retaliatory launch is the appropriate action.

Why? So that when a new intelligence emerges on this planet they'll know the value of deterrence?

Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by GunboatDiplomat on Saturday April 23, 2016 @04:10PM (#11557204)
So you're Ok with, say, Putin deciding to launch his arsenal in a first strike and wiping out the US and allies with no retaliation?
Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by Zigurd on Saturday April 23, 2016 @05:50PM (#11557570)
If he launches, deterrence failed and civilation is gone. What is the point of killing even more people?
Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by jMyles on Saturday April 23, 2016 @10:59AM (#11555794)
> Can you agree that sometimes it is morally just and legally permitted to use violence?

Even if one can agree, which I think most of us can, this particular dilemma is specific to weapons of mass destruction, because their use inevitably (and intentionally) causes the death of many, many people who aren't the target but are in the wrong place at the wrong time.

So, the thinking goes, it makes some sense to force the president to kill someone who isn't the target to ensure that it's a worthwhile sacrifice.

Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by chrisseaton on Saturday April 23, 2016 @11:08AM (#11555836)
My main objection is that the person telling the anecdote is making fun of the people in the pentagon, making it look like they didn't get his clever little moral trick, when in reality, like many things in life, it isn't quite that simple and maybe they had a good point.
Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by GunboatDiplomat on Saturday April 23, 2016 @11:39AM (#11555981)
Our nuclear opponents need to think we'd be perfectly willing to push the button in order for the balance to work correctly. This destabilizes the situation, which is NOT a good thing.
Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by dorfsmay on Saturday April 23, 2016 @12:06PM (#11556096)
I cannot find any link right now, but I remember reading about the Milgram's experiment, or one of it replication, and one of the test was with and without glass, what looked like a more direct connection between the button and the victim or via a machine, etc... and that one of the conclusion was that the more indirect connection, the more distance, the more elements between the person pressing the button and the victim, and the more likely the person was going to push the button.

By the way, have you ever wonder which type of meat you would eat if you had to kill the animals yourself?

Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by peatmoss on Saturday April 23, 2016 @11:25AM (#11555929)
(Perhaps) misattributed to Stalin:

"The death of one man is a tragedy, the death of millions is a statistic."

Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by venomsnake on Saturday April 23, 2016 @10:43AM (#11555710)
There is huge difference though. He has to kill one of the citizens of his own country. Better example would have been lets say a convicted war criminal. He still has to do the killing, but not a person that is one of his own.
Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by jdavis703 on Saturday April 23, 2016 @11:26AM (#11555931)
Launching a nuclear strike against another nuclear-armed country will cause your own citizens to die though.
Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by GunboatDiplomat on Saturday April 23, 2016 @11:46AM (#11556008)
Yeah, but no President has ever launched a pre-emptive nuclear attack (saving WWII). And the likelihood of any President doing so has decreased over time. The only time the button would be pressed is if enemy missiles are in the air.
Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by venomsnake on Saturday April 23, 2016 @12:24PM (#11556169)
It may not have to be nuclear armed adversary. And it will cause a high probability of your own citizens dying. Not certainty.
Re:The Heart of Deterrence (2012) by vidarh on Saturday April 23, 2016 @12:53PM (#11556296)
It is exactly this line of thinking that makes it worthwhile creating extra barriers to make it harder to launch a strike to force the person responsible to be very sure.