News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:In Syria, militias armed by the Pentagon fight those arme... by foxhedgehog on Tuesday March 29, 2016 @06:14AM (#11380504)
I used to work in Middle East affairs.

There is a tendency for Westerners to overstate their own importance in the Middle East, which are also informed by inter-state, intra-state and extra-regional groups and actors that are neither European nor American.

The real regional meta-story that is playing out right now, in my opinion, is the inevitable collapse of the post-imperial order. It was caused not by any grand state actors (or by Twitter) but by a single Tunisian street vendor. He upended the unsustainable patterns of rule that have characterized the region since the withdrawal of the European powers after World War II. Nobody knows what comes next, and there is no good model, yet, of American statecraft to inform a regional posture.

The story made me shake my head, but not because of anything to do with of any sinister implications that it raised about the military-industrial complex, but because it looks like Keystone Kops. The Syrian civil war is a proxy conflict between the (Sunni) Gulf States and (Shia) Iranians with the Russians alongside the latter. It takes the form of members of ISIS killing Quds Force commanders, and it ignited without much help from the West. Which side would you pick?

Re:In Syria, militias armed by the Pentagon fight those arme... by nl on Tuesday March 29, 2016 @07:46AM (#11380785)
The Syrian civil war is a proxy conflict between the (Sunni) Gulf States and (Shia) Iranians with the Russians alongside the latter. It takes the form of members of ISIS killing Quds Force commanders, and it ignited without much help from the West. Which side would you pick?

You forgot the weird Turkey vs the Kurds almost war thing. And the weirder thing of the Israelis almost protecting ISIS forces from Assard/Hezbollah. Or the bizarre Iraqi Mosal campaign where Iraqi backed Iranian militias almost had (or sometimes did have?) US Airforce backing.

Anything is possible in this war.

Re:In Syria, militias armed by the Pentagon fight those arme... by gotchange on Tuesday March 29, 2016 @09:42AM (#11381355)
Just a minor correction:

The Turkish state seems to have only a problem with the militant Kurds in Turkey and Syria but not the ones in Iraq as it seems that they get along very well and the Kurds in Iraq even allow Turkish forces to launch airstrikes in the region of Iraqi Kurdistan and for their troops to hunt down PKK members over there with the help of Peshmerga, the de facto Kurdish armed forces in Northern Iraq.

So, saying that the Turks are at complete odds with Kurdish militias all over the region is not entirely correct.

Re:In Syria, militias armed by the Pentagon fight those arme... by nl on Tuesday March 29, 2016 @10:36AM (#11381730)
Indeed! At one point the Iraqi Kurds and Turkey were sharing the profits from an oil pipeline.

The are multiple Kurdish factions on all sides of all borders. The don't always get along, either with each other or with Turkey. I also believe that there is a multitude of views towards the Assad regime.

AFAIK they all fight ISIS though.

Re:In Syria, militias armed by the Pentagon fight those arme... by 0xFFC on Tuesday March 29, 2016 @11:50AM (#11382331)
Henri Barkey , in Woodrow Wilson (which is expert in these area's) says the reason is Iraqi Kurds realized PKK is danger to them also , because of their control by only one person. He claim PKK is organization controlled by one person which don't like to be outside of the game (abdullah Ocalan) and do what ever he can to stay in conflict and therefore because of this reason basically iraqi kurds tend to ignore PKK because they realized this is dangerous actor to be involved with (or in some cases fight against them).

The talk was in NPR, you can search "Henry Barky NPR Kurds".

Re:In Syria, militias armed by the Pentagon fight those arme... by jessaustin on Tuesday March 29, 2016 @09:56AM (#11381480)
I would have sworn that I've heard reports of Iraqi Kurds complaining about those airstrikes and vowing to shoot down the next Turkish plane? Especially now that the Turks have more to worry about from Syria, why would Kurds in Iraq accommodate the Turks in any way?
Re:In Syria, militias armed by the Pentagon fight those arme... by gotchange on Tuesday March 29, 2016 @10:28AM (#11381675)
It's becoming a ritual with Erdogan's govt recently to launch airstrikes against PKK positions in Qandil, Northern Iraq following every terrorist attack in Turkey that's blamed on militant Kurdish nationalists and they even sent troops to Iraqi Kurdistan last December with the tacit approval of the Kurdish authorities to neutralize PKK militants there.

There's always been tension between Kurdish nationalist factions and they even had a brief civil war[1] between Iraqi Kurds in the 90s (Talabani vs Barzani) and there's rivalry between the Peshmerga and the PKK esp. in the area where the Peshmerga deems its territories in Iraq where some PKK members challenge their authority there but despite all of this, some Kurdish nationalist love to portray the conflict between Turkey and the Kurds as an ethnic and not a political one as it garners more support and sympathy for their cause and make Turkey look like the bad guy in this conflict.

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_Kurdish_Civil_War

Re:In Syria, militias armed by the Pentagon fight those arme... by nl on Tuesday March 29, 2016 @10:42AM (#11381783)
Is there any evidence either regarding whether the recent attacks for by Kurds or ISIS?

That's one aspect I find very confusing - Turkish attitudes towards ISIS aren't exactly hardline (eg frequent reports of ISIS supply routes over the Turkish border), and so it isn't clear to me what terror attacks by ISIS in Turkey would gain.

Except terror of course - that's always a thing. And I also understand that ISIS command and control isn't exactly centralised, so it could be random people somewhat aligned.

Another alternative is that they are more tactical in nature - maybe Turkey closes a border route, so ISIS bombs Ankara? I don't know enough to know if this makes sense.

Either way.. confusing.

Re:In Syria, militias armed by the Pentagon fight those arme... by simonh on Tuesday March 29, 2016 @06:37AM (#11380569)
All good points. 'The West' didn't instigate the uprisings in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt and Syria. They were started by local people for local reasons, often with westerners cheering on from the side lines or occasionally providing a bit of air support as in Libya, but mainly keeping out of it.

For goodness sake, we'd been trying to topple Gaddafi and the Syrian regime for half a century and getting exactly nowhere, then as you say one Tunisian street vendor makes a desperate gesture and in the chain reaction from that the whole region falls into chaos. That's history for you.

As for IS, the reason they're such a nuisance isn't so much due to the invasion of Iraq, it's due to the power vacuum in north western Iraq caused by the withdrawal of US forces in 2011. The fact is the surge worked, but all of that was willingly thrown away.

Re:In Syria, militias armed by the Pentagon fight those arme... by astazangasta on Tuesday March 29, 2016 @10:09AM (#11381563)
>They were started by local people for local reasons, often with westerners cheering on from the side lines or occasionally providing a bit of air support as in Libya, but mainly keeping out of it.

"A bit of air support" is a strange characterization for destroying the Libyan government's entire tank fleet in the middle of an Islamist uprising. "Mainly keeping out of it" is a strange characterization for supporting a coup in Egypt that toppled a democratically elected government. Also, we never, ever, ever, ever talk about Bahrain, where the US supplied arms through Saudi Arabia against the uprisings and: >By 2014, 5,000 Saudi and Emirati forces and almost 7000 American forces were positioned "less than 10 miles from the Pearl Roundabout, the center of the country’s protest movement."

We have surrounded the middle east with armies for more than a generation and armed the worst governments in the area. "Mainly keeping out of it" is a gross mischaracterization of what we do there.

Re:In Syria, militias armed by the Pentagon fight those arme... by jacobush on Tuesday April 05, 2016 @08:30AM (#11429815)
Only occasionally carpet bombing capitals in the area?
Re:In Syria, militias armed by the Pentagon fight those arme... by gotchange on Tuesday March 29, 2016 @09:59AM (#11381503)
Thanks for correcting the GP's point in which he overestimated the role of Western powers in most uprisings in the MENA region (2011 - ).

I don't recall any major role for the US in the Tahrir Square uprising in Egypt except just saving their interests whether in the Presidency or the military but saying that the West orchestrated the whole thing is just blatantly false and totally dismisses the sweat and blood we Egyptians scarified to get rid of dictatorship and take all the credit for themselves.

Now to ISIS, we could argue that ISIS was a byproduct of the Iraq invasion in 2003. ISIS was born out of the Iraqi Insurgency and the Al-Qaeda in Mesopotamia under the leadership of Abu Mosab Azzarqawi.

So yeah the US invasion of Iraq contributed indirectly to the rise of ISIS in Iraq first and then to expand in the neighboring Syria and eclipsing Al-Qaeda as the "hottest" Islamic terrorist organization in the world.

Re:In Syria, militias armed by the Pentagon fight those arme... by foxhedgehog on Tuesday March 29, 2016 @09:04AM (#11381118)
I agree with much of this, but history should look more closely at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S.%E2%80%93Iraq_Status_of_Fo...
Re:In Syria, militias armed by the Pentagon fight those arme... by astazangasta on Tuesday March 29, 2016 @10:10AM (#11381577)
We HAVE picked a side, it's Saudi Arabia. We sell them billions of dollars in arms every year, support them in every conflict they undertake (we are currently helping them bomb the shit out of Yemen), we have contained Iran behind sanctions for a generation. The idea that the US is a neutral actor in this fight and not a huge source of military power dictating events is, frankly, a horrific lie.
Re:In Syria, militias armed by the Pentagon fight those arme... by RobertoG on Tuesday March 29, 2016 @08:12AM (#11380862)
Is not this sentence: "a tendency for Westerners to overstate their own importance in the Middle East" and this sentence: "the inevitable collapse of the post-imperial order", a little in contradiction? or are you talking about the Ottoman empire?

"The Syrian civil war is a proxy conflict between the (Sunni) Gulf States and (Shia) Iranians with the Russians alongside the latter."

Would be appropriated to say "with the Americans alongside the Sunni"? Is this, then, a kind of proxy-proxy war?

Because it seems to me that we always heard how bad are the Iranians but very little about how bad are the Saudis and company.

Re:In Syria, militias armed by the Pentagon fight those arme... by foxhedgehog on Tuesday March 29, 2016 @09:03AM (#11381108)
Good points. I think that it's probably more complete to say that "Western nations (and Russia and China and India...) cast a long, but declining, shadow across the history of the Middle East." The collapse of the post-imperial order was probably inevitable and is a demonstration of exactly the fragility of Western regional influence.

And the purpose of this article seems to be to demonstrate that the Americans don't have any clue which side they are on.

The Iranian government has literally been chanting "Death to America" every week since 1979. Our relationship with Saudi is much, much more complex.

Re:In Syria, militias armed by the Pentagon fight those arme... by jessaustin on Tuesday March 29, 2016 @10:18AM (#11381617)
If the chanting bothers us, we shouldn't have deposed Mosaddegh.
Re:In Syria, militias armed by the Pentagon fight those arme... by foxhedgehog on Wednesday March 30, 2016 @05:29AM (#11388043)
The history of US-Iranian relations is more complex than this, and Mosaddegh was also a controversial figure in Iranian history.
Re:In Syria, militias armed by the Pentagon fight those arme... by jessaustin on Thursday March 31, 2016 @12:01PM (#11398134)
Oh, complexity! I'll shut up now...

Fuck that. If anything had happened in Iran before Mosaddegh was overthrown by USA that would constitute a defensible justification for that action, I'm sure you would have told us already. Instead, here's some innuendo. Gosh that chanting is bad.

Re:In Syria, militias armed by the Pentagon fight those arme... by foxhedgehog on Thursday March 31, 2016 @10:31PM (#11402152)
I appreciate your evidence-based response. I was providing shorthand, but you should familiarize yourself, for instance, on Mosaddegh's use of emergency powers after his reinstatement. If you would prefer to review this history in a less heuristically-based fashion, I can recommend The Persian Puzzle, which explores the full complexity of local politics in great detail, including Soviet participation in Iran as well. Among the other things that it includes is a great breakdown of how Khomeini manipulated the levers of influence to gather power in 1979, and how he was particularly anti-American in outlook even among those populations that were predisposed to look unfavorably on the U.S.

Also, implicit in your criticism, such as it is, is the notion that the chanting is representational of the Iranian population. It is not; most of the country has lived for long enough under the 'revolutionary' rule of the IRGC that they are actually more disposed towards the West than you might think.

Regardless, you asked why the U.S. was tilted towards Saudi in its conflict with Iran, and I was trying to provide a summary: that is an outgrowth of regional balance-of-power politics as much as anything else.

Re:In Syria, militias armed by the Pentagon fight those arme... by jessaustin on Thursday April 07, 2016 @02:00PM (#11449224)
Thanks, but I try to limit my consumption of books written by CIA personnel to one or two a year. Let's stipulate that the Ayatollahs are just as bad as the Shah eventually was. By any objective measure, however, both of those are worse for the Iranian populace and for USA interests than Mosaddegh ever was. If "Mosaddegh's use of emergency powers" is at all relevant to the discussion, then your premise must be that USA should act as a sort of "World Police", responding to every imperfectly-capitalistic action of elected leaders anywhere. I reject that premise, and I find that history rejects it more as time goes on.

I wasn't the one who initially asked why USA traditionally favors Saudi over the Ayatollahs, but frankly your response to that query is an exercise in question-begging. They wouldn't chant "death to America" if that chant weren't rhetorically useful. It wouldn't be rhetorically useful if USA hadn't intervened to remove an elected Prime Minister.