Like me many italians (good and smart ones that are not part of the actual clientelistic system and are not able to get a good job) are leaving my country. I also have a lot of friends that are deluded and do not plan to have children, also because they can't get a decent salary to build a family.

I cannot tell if there is a casual link, though. Actually Italy is engulfed in a media regime, where the prime minister own three major TV channels and controls the three public ones. 80% of the people only get news form TV, and TV is not telling the bad news. So there may be a link and I think that hope for the future plays a big part, but I also think it's more than that.

I think that many things in the actual system contribute on the low birth rate. About vatican I can tell you that they primarily look at italian society and are very biased by their religion.

The first generation of women to get the chance at education, real careers etc = birth rate plummets.

A generation (or two) later, there are women in politics and at the top of companies, introduce generous maternity leave, childcare etc. as in Scandinavia = birth rate rises again.