Gotti Tedeschi is italian. While it's true that a low birth rate is typical of rich countries, it is also true that in Italy the hope for the future is currently at historical lows (sociologists are also writing profusely about this). Not that there is necessarily a causal link, of course.

I am italian and actually living in Italy and I can tell you this: Italy is in a very bad historical period, with corruption and organized crime spread in the government. I am one of the italians thinking that this country has no future and this is why I'm leaving.

Like me many italians (good and smart ones that are not part of the actual clientelistic system and are not able to get a good job) are leaving my country. I also have a lot of friends that are deluded and do not plan to have children, also because they can't get a decent salary to build a family.

I cannot tell if there is a casual link, though. Actually Italy is engulfed in a media regime, where the prime minister own three major TV channels and controls the three public ones. 80% of the people only get news form TV, and TV is not telling the bad news. So there may be a link and I think that hope for the future plays a big part, but I also think it's more than that.

I think that many things in the actual system contribute on the low birth rate. About vatican I can tell you that they primarily look at italian society and are very biased by their religion.

Italy is in a typical 2-generation pattern.

The first generation of women to get the chance at education, real careers etc = birth rate plummets.

A generation (or two) later, there are women in politics and at the top of companies, introduce generous maternity leave, childcare etc. as in Scandinavia = birth rate rises again.

"The notion that the reason people are having fewer children because they don't believe in the future is pure ideology."

It is true that this idea dovetails nicely with Catholic ideology. But might it also have some truth in it?

Certainly, if people do not believe in the future, it is natural to assume they are less likely to have children. The converse is not so obvious, of course. (People might be optimistic for the future, but don't want to make the sacrifices inherent in having children, for example.)

I am partially motivated to have children in order to make the future better.

Yet poor, famine starved peoples the world over (the exact kind of people with no hope for the future) tend to have large families.

Out of context, that statement seems like it's saying that people do not "believe in the future" because they don't have children (i.e. having children gives you hope for the future).

I can see a case for arguing that someone who has zero children doesn’t “believe in the future” (whatever that means). But surely the parents of one child “believe in the future” no less than the parents of eight.

I think "deficit of trust" would have been a better sell.

The future is inevitable. The immediate future being an ideal place to start having kids is a notion that's hard to trust.

Potential mates are hard to trust as well :)

It's hard to trust anything these days. I think a lot of the comments in this thread are evidence of that.

The Roman Catholic Church, like any other corporation, is interested in revenue and growth.

When he says ordinary people do not "believe in the future", what he means to say is they don't believe in a Catholic future.

I don't think they worry about that since they'll always have a huge following. And I think this has more to do with the Catholic Church's stand on contraception and abortions.

I don't believe it's that simple.

You have Catholic numbers dropping like a rock in America in the wake of the scandals and etc. This whole new "Catholics Come Home!" ad campaign isn't cheap and isn't typical of them.

You have the European birth rate going negative. You have growth markets like Asia starting to level off. Where are you going to get growth from? The Church's stance on contraception and abortions is directly tied to make sure there are enough money-donating catholics around to keep the machine going.

Don't forget that the "religiosity" in the countries that are the historic home of the church is also very poor. You go into a Cathedral or Basilica during mass in most places in Europe and all you find are old ladies. Basically, the home base of the Church has abandoned the Church.

Coincidentally those places are also technologically and philosophically sophisticated, places that do care about the future by definition. Yet they also tend to have low birthrates. The Church is simply taking advantage of these two situations in a campaign to explain a short term (though sizable) economic blip which is already reasonably explainable in ways that don't conform to the obvious ideological footprint the Church is trying to fit all this into and for all appearances looks to already be on the upswing anyways.

Some extra data from my hometown:

http://www.chicagotribune.com/media/graphic/2010-02/52176728...

Attendance has been falling since 2001. No visible correlation to economic conditions.