News for hackers. Stuff that matters.

A comment on Oil Crash is Kicking Off One of the Largest Wealth Transfers in History. Parent comment

Re:Oil Crash is Kicking Off One of the Largest Wealth Transf... by kbenson on Tuesday February 02, 2016 @01:00PM (#11021097)
That's an interesting argument, but as the p[rice drops, less companies will be willing to drill it, and that will provide an upward pressure from lack of supply, will it not? At some point I imagine it will stabilize at a new price (based on then demand), I guess the question is do we have models of something like this happening before?
[ Parent | on HN ]
Re:Oil Crash is Kicking Off One of the Largest Wealth Transf... by ktRolster on Tuesday February 02, 2016 @02:07PM (#11021637)
> I guess the question is do we have models of something like this happening before?

Yes, all the major banks (Goldman, JP Morgan) have models for this kind of thing.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/michaellynch/2015/09/14/goldman-...

http://247wallst.com/energy-economy/2015/11/09/jpmorgan-slig...

Eventually the price will stabilize, somewhere in the $35 - $65 range, probably.

[ Parent | on HN ]
Re:Oil Crash is Kicking Off One of the Largest Wealth Transf... by toomuchtodo on Tuesday February 02, 2016 @01:37PM (#11021381)
You're assuming there is no demand destruction.

Keep in mind: China economy cooling off, fuel efficiency standards, shifting demographics (older populations drive less).

We reached peak oil, it just wasn't supply. It was demand.

[ Parent | on HN ]
Re:Oil Crash is Kicking Off One of the Largest Wealth Transf... by jessaustin on Tuesday February 02, 2016 @03:23PM (#11022221)
We reached peak oil, it just wasn't supply. It was demand.

Nifty redefinition, but I take this to confirm that the Peak Oil aficionados were kooks, just as they seemed to be. They and Paul Ehrlich will eventually be joined by many others in my "confirmed kook" bucket, but so far my "strongly suspected kook" bucket seems pretty accurate too.

[ Parent | on HN ]