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Re:Oil Crash is Kicking Off One of the Largest Wealth Transf... by baddox on Tuesday February 02, 2016 @12:10PM (#11020715)
Why should I expect that to result in us killing each other over arable farm land, any more than we're killing each other over arable farm land now?
Re:Oil Crash is Kicking Off One of the Largest Wealth Transf... by AnthonyMouse on Tuesday February 02, 2016 @12:13PM (#11020738)
It's not literally a war over food where the winner gets to eat. It's riots because food in North Africa triples in price because it has to be transported from Russia or Europe instead of grown locally and people are angry but the local government has no capacity to fix it.
Re:Oil Crash is Kicking Off One of the Largest Wealth Transf... by JoeAltmaier on Tuesday February 02, 2016 @12:17PM (#11020771)
The thing about food riots is, they are over quickly because, starvation. So a very temporary condition.

And in this modern age of transportation there's really no need for anybody to go hungry. We can feed everybody. If somebody in North Africa is hungry, its their politics at fault.

Re:Oil Crash is Kicking Off One of the Largest Wealth Transf... by dragonwriter on Tuesday February 02, 2016 @04:11PM (#11022642)
> The thing about food riots is, they are over quickly because, starvation.

Food riots usually happen well before mass starvation, and usually are over quickly because one of four things happens:

(a) The government accedes to the demands of the rioters, or

(b) The government distracts the rioters, often with a manufactured external crisis, or

(c) The government convinces the rioters that continuing the riot will lead to more pain than whatever provoked the riot and no positive results (often, by fairly direct demonstration of this),

(d) The riots escalate to outright rebellion, and the government is toppled and replaced (often resulting in [a], but sometimes this becomes a distraction along the lines of [b]; this often follows an attempt by the government at [c].)

> And in this modern age of transportation there's really no need for anybody to go hungry. We can feed everybody. If somebody in North Africa is hungry, its their politics at fault.

Even granting that, manifestly people do go hungry, particularly in nations that don't generate enough domestically to feed their people and would have to rely on imports to do so (though, even in the most developed countries that are also net food exporters, some still go hungry.)

Climate change, even before considering increased variability, changes which countries political deficiencies produce major food distribution problems and the accompanying pressures, which, historically, have led to mass violence, both internal and interstate. That its a political and not technical problem might be emotionally satisfying, especially when the problem is mostly in distant countries, but it doesn't actually magically make the problem go away.

Re:Oil Crash is Kicking Off One of the Largest Wealth Transf... by vkou on Tuesday February 02, 2016 @01:25PM (#11021291)
Either that, or they quickly end in a bloody revolution.
Re:Oil Crash is Kicking Off One of the Largest Wealth Transf... by AnthonyMouse on Tuesday February 02, 2016 @12:36PM (#11020908)
> The thing about food riots is, they are over quickly because, starvation. So a very temporary condition.

Your answer to food riots is don't worry, they'll starve to death soon enough?

> And in this modern age of transportation there's really no need for anybody to go hungry. We can feed everybody. If somebody in North Africa is hungry, its their politics at fault.

We can grow enough food for everybody. We can put the food on trucks. We can put the trucks on roads.

Somebody still has to pay for the food and the trucks and the roads. And that's going to be significantly more expensive than locally grown food. For people who have no money to begin with.

Re:Oil Crash is Kicking Off One of the Largest Wealth Transf... by pyre on Tuesday February 02, 2016 @02:49PM (#11021969)
> And that's going to be significantly more expensive than locally grown food

Depends on the food and the transportation method. Is growing tomatoes in a green house during winter months in a northern country more or less efficient than shipping them from the southern hemisphere?

Re:Oil Crash is Kicking Off One of the Largest Wealth Transf... by imgabe on Tuesday February 02, 2016 @01:16PM (#11021214)
We can also put the people on trucks or planes or boats and move them to where the food is. Expensive, yes, but only necessary once.
Re:Oil Crash is Kicking Off One of the Largest Wealth Transf... by dragonwriter on Tuesday February 02, 2016 @04:00PM (#11022541)
> We can also put the people on trucks or planes or boats and move them to where the food is.

We could, but the people where the food (and associated economic security) is may object to that.

Refugees often aren't all that well received, and economic refugees (as opposed to political refugees who are politically aligned with the receiving state, which is opposed to the regime from which they are fleeing) -- external and, often, internal -- often are the worst received.

Re:Oil Crash is Kicking Off One of the Largest Wealth Transf... by dragonwriter on Tuesday February 02, 2016 @03:47PM (#11022408)
> Why should I expect that to result in us killing each other over arable farm land, any more than we're killing each other over arable farm land now?

Arable farmland and access to fresh water have been a fairly common thing for people to kill each other over historically, including in the modern era. To the extent we aren't, its because many countries have reached settled states with their neighbors that are stable given a relatively stable distribution of those resources.

Major shifts would leave large existing populations without support and others newly prosperous, giving the former little to lose and the latter something quite valuable to defend.

Re:Oil Crash is Kicking Off One of the Largest Wealth Transf... by JoeAltmaier on Tuesday February 02, 2016 @03:49PM (#11022429)
Yeah, but those without are going to be continents away from those 'with'. Not really in a position to fight, especially as they're starving. Not talking knights in armor fighting over a moor here.
Re:Oil Crash is Kicking Off One of the Largest Wealth Transf... by dragonwriter on Tuesday February 02, 2016 @03:55PM (#11022494)
> Yeah, but those without are going to be continents away from those 'with'.

No, they aren't. The US will be one of the losers, Canada one of the winners (again, ignoring effects of variability, etc.) And lots of the relative winning/losing pairs are going to be immediate neighbors.

> Not really in a position to fight, especially as they're starving.

There'll be a whole long period where the losses will be to established economic position rather than mass starvation. Its not going to be "breadbasket today, wasteland tomorrow". There'll be a long period where declining economic position, rising food prices, and less food security (and similar effects with water in place of food) will be evident and starvation visible down the road before mass starvation -- and its in that period that there will be strong pressures on governments to reverse that position by any means at their disposal.