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Re:Oil Crash is Kicking Off One of the Largest Wealth Transf... by plusbryan on Tuesday February 02, 2016 @10:48AM (#11020138)
What's the best way to capitalize on this assumption? USO?
Re:Oil Crash is Kicking Off One of the Largest Wealth Transf... by manyhats on Tuesday February 02, 2016 @12:00PM (#11020639)
If you're trading, USO is fine.

If you're investing on a longer-term horizon (a year or more), the monthly futures roll where the USO fund sells the current month's oil contracts (because it doesn't want the actual oil to be delivered) and buys the following month's oil futures (normally at a higher price than what it sold the current month's at) will eat into any returns you get from price appreciation.

To put some numbers to the example, let's say the fund has 100 barrels of oil, and the current month's price is $20, and next month is $21. When it rolls the contracts, it sells 100 barrels for $2000, and buys 95 barrels, with $5 left over.

Fast forward a month. Prices have gone up by $1 for all months oil. It will sell 95 barrels for $22 ($2090, plus the prior month's leftover $5) and buy 91 barrels for $23, with $2 left over.

Fast forward another month. Let's say you owned the entire fund and decided to liquidate it. Prices for your contract have gone up another $1, so you sell your 91 barrels for $24, receiving $2184, and adding the extra $2 in cash you had gives you $2186. That's a 9.3% return in two months.

Compare that to the price of oil as reported in the news - it's the front month contract, so on the face of it, oil has gone from $20 to $24 (20% increase) while you've only made 9.3%.

The numbers are somewhat exaggerated here, and it can work the other way (current month more expensive than forward month) but is uncommon. This is why USO has historically been a bad long-term proxy for the price of oil.

Re:Oil Crash is Kicking Off One of the Largest Wealth Transf... by AstroJetson on Tuesday February 02, 2016 @11:12AM (#11020310)
I always suggest Vanguard funds - Vanguard Energy Fund Investor Shares:

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0051&...

Note that this is SUPER RISKY investment fund. If you look at the chart it has major swings up and down. The fund is down 20% for 2016 (yikes!). But if you had held it from 2012 -> 2014 you would have gotten a 40% return on your investment.

I like Vanguard funds since they have a low management cost to them and they tend to be a little more conservative in their selection.

Good luck, remember me when you make your million!

Re:Oil Crash is Kicking Off One of the Largest Wealth Transf... by Ntrails on Tuesday February 02, 2016 @11:31AM (#11020433)
Other passive investment funds with similar or lower fees and appropriate target sector are available

Also consider whether you want to invest in oil related companies or in the price of oil itself (which is just as possible).

NB. I have nothing for or against Vanguard funds and have heard a few people supporting them.

Re:Oil Crash is Kicking Off One of the Largest Wealth Transf... by tamana on Tuesday February 02, 2016 @04:16PM (#11022681)
>Good luck, remember me when you make your million!

Oldest trick in the book: fove out free advice and take a share of the wins, but don't pay a share of the losses ;-)

Re:Oil Crash is Kicking Off One of the Largest Wealth Transf... by AstroJetson on Tuesday February 02, 2016 @05:52PM (#11023364)
No, the oldest is to give out free advise, get a commission on the buy and then win or loose get a commission on sale.

That's the key underpinning to the stock market. Just ask any broker.

Re:Oil Crash is Kicking Off One of the Largest Wealth Transf... by protomyth on Tuesday February 02, 2016 @01:18PM (#11021229)
Vanguard is actually quite good just for the nice web site and ease of use.
Re:Oil Crash is Kicking Off One of the Largest Wealth Transf... by mywittyname on Tuesday February 02, 2016 @05:19PM (#11023140)
I just exchanged a bunch of other funds for VGENX. These companies are some of the most profitable in history. Even with the recent massive price collapse, this fund has outperformed the market since 1984.
Re:Oil Crash is Kicking Off One of the Largest Wealth Transf... by encoderer on Tuesday February 02, 2016 @11:50AM (#11020557)
USO is an ETF based off of a basket of futures contracts. The problem with owning USO is that there is basically inefficiency when rolling futures contracts and there is a some decay in the price. If you truly want to play in oil, best to use the futures themselves. Futures are the highest leverage instruments available, so be careful to note their size, but there is nothing more risky about futures than the equivalent notional value of stocks.
Re:Oil Crash is Kicking Off One of the Largest Wealth Transf... by jonknee on Tuesday February 02, 2016 @11:04AM (#11020242)
Or a basket of energy companies like XLE.