You can't comment like this here.
Confounding factors include:
- Dietary affects on metabolic rate/'calories out'
- Digestion differences on calories in
- Food/portion affects on satiety
- Food addiction
- Long term diet maintainability
We've known about calories in vs. out for years, yet our society is not seeing the results we want. The important question is: How do we control that equation?
Your conclusion is as helpful and callous as abstinence-only sex education.
Funny you should say that when this was just published today: http://arstechnica.com/science/2016/01/why-the-calorie-is-br...
[1]: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/13/opinion/calorie-detective....
Eating a caloric deficit will predictably result in weight loss, but there is some feedback between diet and resting energy expenditure (REE). The macronutrient balance you eat can affect REE.
https://jama.jamanetwork.com/article.aspx?articleid=1199154#...
> Among overweight and obese young adults compared with pre–weight-loss energy expenditure, isocaloric feeding following 10% to 15% weight loss resulted in decreases in REE and TEE that were greatest with the low-fat diet, intermediate with the low–glycemic index diet, and least with the very low-carbohydrate diet.
Because diet can affect REE, you can change your diet isocalorically yet still gain or lose weight. Your particular example seems to be an example of this, but the effect is likely very exaggerated. Differences are on the order of 10%, not 30%.
TL;DR: eating less carbs makes you burn more energy.
Diet feeds back into resting energy expenditure (REE). Namely, a low-carb diet leads to higher REE than e.g. a low-fat diet.
Effects of Dietary Composition on Energy Expenditure During Weight-Loss Maintenance https://jama.jamanetwork.com/article.aspx?articleid=1199154#...
> Conclusion: Among overweight and obese young adults compared with pre–weight-loss energy expenditure, isocaloric feeding following 10% to 15% weight loss resulted in decreases in REE and TEE that were greatest with the low-fat diet, intermediate with the low–glycemic index diet, and least with the very low-carbohydrate diet.
This is a change of REE on the order of ~10%, so not huge, but definitely significant.
When eating a similar diet, eating less certainly works. However, affecting TDEE through diet and exercise is an important consideration as well, and may be easier and more maintainable than caloric restriction. There are also issues with satiety and diet that are important for weight loss.
Calories In -> Calories Out should only be a response to people who claim to be unable to control their weight. If they control how much they eat, they can control their weight. It does not make it helpful weight loss advice, though.
And the whole point of the article is that we differ significantly on how are bodies respond to food.