My theory is we, as subscribers, have hit rock bottom or close to rock bottom in terms of content on Netflix that is not produced by Netflix. This is okay with me. I like Netflix content. But I think Netflix original content is a stick that is useful. It proves Netflix itself can survive without licensing content, that globally available content is useful (see all the people trying to use VPNs to get content available in some markets), and that Netflix original content may become high quality enough that it competes with other networks. So my theory is Netflix original content is useful both in the short term to weather the content draught (due to high licensing costs) and the long term (as outlined earlier).

My fingers are crossed that this gamble is fruitful in bringing the cost to license content back down again to levels that are sustainable for Netflix. I also wonder if we'll ever see Netflix license Netflix original content to another network.

This is all conjecture purely as an enthusiast of Netflix.