Re:Neal Stephenson: Why I Am a Sociomediapath (2015)
by thenomad on Wednesday January 06, 2016 @10:24AM
(#10850942)
Don't know if this helps, but - that prediction strategy doesn't work if your passion's for a hits-driven / inverse-square-law business.
Lots of authors, for example, write for +-20 years before writing the book that breaks them out - some of them even have HN accounts :) The calculus is similar for starting businesses, films (although the odds there are even more terrible), etc.
And experience accumulated reduces failure chance. I recall there's a statistic that most successful businesses are started by people your age, not people in their 20s.
Lots of authors, for example, write for +-20 years before writing the book that breaks them out - some of them even have HN accounts :) The calculus is similar for starting businesses, films (although the odds there are even more terrible), etc.
And experience accumulated reduces failure chance. I recall there's a statistic that most successful businesses are started by people your age, not people in their 20s.