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Re:Moore's law hits the roof by elorant on Sunday December 27, 2015 @07:38AM (#10797264)
From another point of view perhaps we finally might have to start writing better code instead of solving software issues with better hardware.
Re:Moore's law hits the roof by Strilanc on Sunday December 27, 2015 @10:18AM (#10797634)
You realize having to write better code is a bad thing, right? It makes writing software more expensive, and decreases the supply of people who can do it.

Also, people aren't going to start valuing craftmanship because you added more constraints. Adding a speed constraint won't make the pile of hacks upon hacks smaller, it will add a layer of speed hacks. It won't fundamentally rewrite the incentives for software, where companies that do the minimum amount of work to hit an acceptable speed are rewarded. It just culls companies naive enough to think they could write something elegant or concise.

Re:Moore's law hits the roof by mrrrgn on Sunday December 27, 2015 @09:04PM (#10799474)
> It makes writing software more expensive, and decreases the supply of people who can do it.

That sucks for business types, but this has a real upside for professional programmers. Despite propaganda, salaries are based on supply/demand, not impact.

Re:Moore's law hits the roof by justincormack on Sunday December 27, 2015 @10:20AM (#10797641)
Zero cost abstractions are a great thing. Rust is working towards this. Readability and speed is a great goal and there is no reason to believe it cannot be achieved.
Re:Moore's law hits the roof by Strilanc on Sunday December 27, 2015 @10:31AM (#10797671)
Those are great developments, and they shift the pareto curve of cost-vs-readability-vs-speed downward, but the curve is still there.
Re:Moore's law hits the roof by GFK_of_xmaspast on Sunday December 27, 2015 @10:49AM (#10797725)
> It makes writing software more expensive.

As someone who gets paid for writing software....

Re:Moore's law hits the roof by TeMPOraL on Sunday December 27, 2015 @04:21PM (#10798801)
... as little as your boss can get away with, and who pressures you to write it faster...
Re:Moore's law hits the roof by JustSomeNobody on Sunday December 27, 2015 @10:18AM (#10797637)
So?

I see that as good.

Re:Moore's law hits the roof by akerro on Sunday December 27, 2015 @08:11AM (#10797335)
Impossible, entry level for CS and programming is drastically falling down every year, languages that don't require any CS knowledge or thinking become more and more popular. During my undergraduate studies no one told me that something like CPU cache or branch prediction exists, we were just told C#, Java, JS and PHP are used in the industry so learn it and you will have "a job". Some students did their MP in PHP, JS where you could login as red status bar (HTML injection in login). We were not told about vagrant or static code analysis. I had to learn in myself from reddit and contributions to OSS. People who call them self senior JS developers don't know how to solve basic algorithmic problems.
Re:Moore's law hits the roof by CrLf on Sunday December 27, 2015 @09:19AM (#10797500)
Maybe this is the source of the recurrent discussions here, and elsewhere, about how formal CS education doesn't matter (something I wholeheartedly disagree).

Universities have always been under fire to provide courses "better suited" for market needs and it seems to me that they've been slowly caving in during the last decade or so. This, of course, probably varies a lot between country and even between universities in the same country.

The fact is: university courses that degenerate into professional training courses end up providing little value. Timeless CS principles are abandoned for marketable high-level skills that are obsolete even before students finish their studies, and that help nothing when the market itself changes (or needs to change).

I see Europe's Bologna process as a perfect example of this. It was supposed to make higher education comparable between EU countries but instead now provides an excuse for shorter and shallower courses, comparable only because they don't go any further than the lowest common denominator.

What you say is really evident in some circles: a magical view of computing platforms and a complete ignorance of hardware details critical for software performance. There is a blind faith on compilers/interpreters to somehow extract maximum performance from the hardware in the face of wastefulness.

As anecdotal evidence, I've more than once had to convince people that allocating new objects by the millions (in the JVM) has a real CPU performance cost. The usual response is that the application isn't limited by memory and the time required by the garbage collector is negligible, thinking nothing about cache locality and how memory access is now a major bottleneck for modern CPUs.

Re:Moore's law hits the roof by tracker1 on Sunday December 27, 2015 @11:49AM (#10797933)
I don't know that I agree... people can learn in many different ways, and don't always need to deal with different aspects. If all I want to do is build bird houses, do I need to learn everything a structural engineer has to learn to build sky scrapers?

That said, had a similar issue with logic in a simulation software where each virtual unit was its' own OO based object, with it's own threads for events... could only run about 4 simultaneous simulations on a server, and it still would bottleneck (GC was horrible). change it to a single event-loop that signaled each unit, and most of the concurrency issues went away. Streamlined the message passing (more functional approach) and memory usage dropped a lot... couldn't convince the manager to switch away from an SQL backend, which was the final bottleneck (normalized data structures), as it was then fast enough.

Had another instance where a configuration table from a database was loaded into memory (for performance), but then was kept in memory as a DataTable, with text based queries for each access for each key, that happened over a thousand times in a single web request (logins were taking too long)... Changed it to a HashTable, and lo and behold, concurrency was no longer a problem... similar issues with not understanding how static variables worked in a multithreaded application... OO ftw again (sarcasm).

Re:Moore's law hits the roof by CrLf on Sunday December 27, 2015 @12:02PM (#10797973)
"If all I want to do is build bird houses, do I need to learn everything a structural engineer has to learn to build sky scrapers?"

Of course not. People should have the choice on how and what they want to learn. I just disagree when choice is turned into equivalence (i.e. formal education providing no value over self-learning / disguising knowledge to build bird houses as knowledge to build skyscrapers).

In some cases (some people) it may not actually matter, but in the general case, looks like it does.

Re:Moore's law hits the roof by tracker1 on Sunday December 27, 2015 @12:28PM (#10798069)
I will say that it depends on the person... I've taken from learning how to do simple scripts in the 80's/90's and actually done reading on lower-level CS, and although I don't write C/C++ day to day, I do understand the concepts. And while I don't have to think about such things.. understanding memory constraints and how caching and process swaps work in the CPU has come in useful even for higher level language projects.

But isn't that why we're supposed to have "Junior" and "Senior" level positions? I think that what software development really needs is a loosely structured guild system where you gain rank not by attrition or seniority but by reputation, where you gain/lose reputation based on who you back for seniority and how well they do. It seems that beyond CS education, it's a constant learning process. You cannot make a career only with what you learn getting a degree in CS.

Re:Moore's law hits the roof by CrLf on Sunday December 27, 2015 @01:13PM (#10798215)
That's difficult to achive without the reputation system being overrun by politics sooner rather than later, I guess.

It's true that a degree in CS doesn't make a career, and that it's mostly a constant learning process. After a while the difference between having a degree or not having one is difficult to measure and junior/senior levels become defined by experience. But everything else being equal, the person with the degree will have forgotten a lot that the person without the degree wasn't exposed to in the first place. Many people will be exceptions to this, but I'm just talking about the general rule here.

Once you enter an organization, you build reputation there. This is the only thing that matters. To transfer this reputation between organizations, the organizations themselves must recognize the transfer (a form of trust). When you have long and convoluted interview processes, it means there is no such trust. The organization you are trying to join is basically starting from scratch in evaluating you skills, disregarding infomation that says that even if you can't balance a binary tree now, you once did and so can do it again if required.

University degrees are supposed to provide this information. They provide knowledge but also provide a path that is known to be difficult and with a known level of "reputation" once completed. Experience alone cannot possibly provide this, because work at company A says litte to company B if the inner workings of A is an unknown quantity to B.

This is the theory at least. If universities aren't doing they work properly, this whole system collapses.

Re:Moore's law hits the roof by sweden on Sunday December 27, 2015 @10:52AM (#10797741)
I don't agree with your perspective of Europe's Bologna. Universities don't need an European agreement to create shorter and shallower courses, in fact, Bologna doesn't impose any kind of restrictions on the kind of courses the universities have.

And Bologna helps a lot with your education, by making higher education comparable between EU countries, you can easily apply for student exchange programs and study subjects that aren't approached by your home university.

I studied in one of the best engineering university of Portugal and I studied for one semester in Sweden and although both universities were under the Bologna agreement, I could notice differences in both systems.

The only thing that Bologna imposes in universities is how many hours of effort is 1 course credit (ECTS). Course content, organization and etc, is up to each university.

Re:Moore's law hits the roof by CrLf on Sunday December 27, 2015 @11:45AM (#10797920)
Before the Bologna process, engineering and CS degrees in Portugal used to be 5 year courses, minimum. After the Bologna process, curricula were modified so that courses could have a 3 year minimum.

This, by itself, isn't a bad thing.

However, the market perception is that these 3 year courses give the same level of qualification as the previous 5 year courses. It doesn't help that the name of the degree has been made the same on purpose ("licenciatura"). "They just removed useless stuff," they say.

This feeds back into students as "no need to go any further." Once they have reached the degree that the market recognizes (the "licenciatura") there isn't much incentive to continue for another 2 years to get a masters degree (btw, in the previous system a masters degree was 7 years).

Universities have to handle this somehow, and they do it by actually "removing useless stuff" from the 3 year curriculum thus reinforcing market perception and actually putting themselves on course to become training schools instead of universities.

These arguments are pretty specific to the portuguese case, and elsewhere things are bound to have been different but with the same general outcome. The general argument is this: solving the comparability problem between EU countries went too far and breached the universities' ability to resist outside influence (mainly political).

PS: The ECTS system is deeply flawed exactly because it is based on "hours of effort." Not only bacause that's a subjective measure on its own, but mainly because "effort" does not directly correlate to actual learning. A course may have very work-intensive assignments for very little knowledge.

Re:Moore's law hits the roof by jessriedel on Sunday December 27, 2015 @09:04AM (#10797461)
Your comment and the parent comment aren't incompatible. Increasing the size of the software industry will naturally result in much greater specialization, with high-skill folks solving the hardest problems and farming out the easier stuff to low-skill people. Likewise, in the early days everyone needed to know how to fix most things in their car, and car mechanics had to be real experts. Now most car driver can't change their oil, car mechanics are following instructions given to them by the car's computer without much idea of how those decisions get made, but inside car companies there are guys with deep insight about how to electronically balance your engine.
Re:Moore's law hits the roof by mikehollinger on Sunday December 27, 2015 @11:00AM (#10797765)
I agree. I picked up JavaScript recently (I'm an embedded systems and firmware guy, so gimme a break!), and decided to play around with designing a basic game. Using parts off of the shelf (bootstrap, parse, and google's APIs) I could build a very pretty, responsive thing that worked well on a variety of devices.

While doing this, I was fumbling around from tutorial to tutorial, figuring out what's what (I still mis-type "backbone" and "bootstrap"). Reading through the questions that others are asking on stackoverflow, I saw a recurrent pattern. Someone would ask "How do I X?" Someone would answer "You do this, this, then that," explaining fairly-articulately the correct answer. A reply to that would be "I don't get it. Can you post a fiddle?" Sometimes inside of those, you'd see (what I think) is a mis-use of a framework. It would work, but either dragged an entire framework into the picture, or caused a tremendous amount of work to happen, when there would usually be a much simpler solution (i.e. do I -always- have to use jQuery?).

I feel like the entry level of programmer might need to change into a different title. "Software tradesman?" I'd describe these as people that know how to assemble a list of components into a working whole. They can replicate a pattern, filling in blanks where appropriate, but can't nip / tuck to change it, and certainly can't design and create a whole -new- component.

Re:Moore's law hits the roof by tracker1 on Sunday December 27, 2015 @11:41AM (#10797901)
Small aside, getting rid of jQuery is kind of hard... I'm half surprised that no browser has taken the core of jQuery and simply integrated its' usage patterns in the browser at this point (considering everything else added to the DOM).

Dealing with the DOM isn't nearly has hard as it has/had been in the past, but it's still a bit more complex than jQuery's API... You can start with document.querySelector*, but then if you need an array, you need Array.from the results, then you can each/map/reduce until your heart's content... event binding is still quite a bit more verbose as well. Not to mention unbinding/cleanup when adding/removing nodes.

In the end, half the time I check "is jQuery in the project already" then I'll use it. More often than not, it is... that is except in "enterprise" projects where "enterprise" architects and the minions of developers have managed to introduce 3-4 different copies of varying old/ancient versions of jQuery and no idea which one is actually loaded. Because it's "just the front end" and have no concept/concern for actual load/performance... don't think about capturing state properly, and get weird behavioral patterns as a result.

Sorry for the rant, it just irks me that people are so dismissive of the front end or capability that the web offers because much of it is so easy to get results. On another note, if you get more into it, do yourself a favor and avoid Angular.

Re:Moore's law hits the roof by mikehollinger on Sunday December 27, 2015 @12:50PM (#10798140)
I guess the 3-4 copies of jQuery are my point; that's generally indicative of a misunderstanding of how things work.

Taking my own learning as an example, I want to build a single-page application, so I decided that I needed a framework to manage it, since that's what all the cool kids were doing. While sipping on a frosty beverage, I was comparing Backbone and Angular, and then realized that Parse (which I'd already decided to use) built their JS API on top of backbone. That quickly simplified things for me, but I still see people that are trying to bolt together angular and parse.

Re:Moore's law hits the roof by xt00 on Sunday December 27, 2015 @05:43PM (#10799017)
I see so many "oh just do it with jquery" comments on forums.. when in reality, 9 times out of 10, you just need some simple one-off function from it.. you end up loading some massive script to run 2 functions... oh wait, is that why compilers exist? :-) really what we need is a way to get jquery to extract out just the functions you want in a standalone way...
Re:Moore's law hits the roof by tracker1 on Sunday December 27, 2015 @11:18PM (#10799837)
And I don't disagree... however, if something is relatively heavily tied into it already, I will utilize it.
Re:Moore's law hits the roof by rwmj on Sunday December 27, 2015 @09:03AM (#10797458)
Please let us know which university that was, so others can avoid it. I'm glad you managed to teach yourself these important concepts despite that. I fear that others won't have been as go-ahead as you, and are instead writing the sort of crappy Javascript that brings my browser to its knees on certain websites, or makes my 6 core 64 bit phone run really slowly.
Re:Moore's law hits the roof by akerro on Sunday December 27, 2015 @10:34AM (#10797682)
I won't name the university but it was top10 UK when I started it 5 years ago.
Re:Moore's law hits the roof by jdavis703 on Sunday December 27, 2015 @09:23AM (#10797511)
I graduated from university in the U.S. less than four years ago, and even at my community college classes they taught this.
Re:Moore's law hits the roof by innocentoldguy on Monday December 28, 2015 @02:47AM (#10800318)
I took CS classes back in the early 90s and again just recently. Back in the 90s, I remember learning about CPU registers; text, stack, and heap memory; pointers; algorithms; etc. The classes I've taken recently were focused on language syntax; REPLs; IDEs; and frameworks. It seems there has definitely been a shift towards the simple during the last 25 years.
Re:Moore's law hits the roof by nothis on Sunday December 27, 2015 @08:16AM (#10797345)
It's amazing how slow certain apps are, for example, on smartphones and how fine people are with it. Things that worked near-instantaneous on a desktop PC 15 years ago now take 5 seconds to load despite the hardware being way faster.
Re:Moore's law hits the roof by speeder on Sunday December 27, 2015 @11:01AM (#10797771)
Even on desktop...

One of the reasons why I prefer to use "cloud" tools instead of LibreOffice is LibreOffice being slow...

Xcode on the MacMini I use to work is just terrible, it is SLOOOOOOOOOOOOW.

I wish I could code for iPhone with TurboC, the thing just worked, no loading time, if I hit a button, it do what I want instantly.

Games are also getting notoriously bad, I've been seeing 2D games, with no particularly important special effects, get extremely slow on my computer (that can run some very beautiful older 3D games easily), Starbound is a very bad offender at this.

But the one that pissed me off, is Epic Games launcher... Shadow Complex is free in december for PC, to get it you install Epic Games launcher, that then downloads and installs it.

My gaming machine is old, and has some parts of it failing, and playing shadow complex tipped it over some edge and now it is overheating easily... at least I thought it was shadow complex fault, I eventually learned it was the launcher's fault, if I close everything and leave only the Epic Launcher open, it uses 100% of my GPU, and make its temperature shoot from 56C to 92C, it is just absurd... it does not even have any 3D on it, I have no idea why it uses the GPU, and why it needs that much GPU power!

Re:Moore's law hits the roof by vitd on Sunday December 27, 2015 @06:19PM (#10799098)
Xcode is extremely I/O bound. When it's not compiling, it's indexing. An SSD helps it a lot. (Which isn't to say Xcode doesn't have its problems, including speed. Just that it can be improved with better hardware.)
Re:Moore's law hits the roof by mikeash on Sunday December 27, 2015 @06:52PM (#10799167)
Xcode is extremely slow even for operations that perform no IO at all, like code completion, or printing a variable in the debugger. (Seriously, I've had it take ten seconds to perform 'print foo', and not as a one-off thing either.)
Re:Moore's law hits the roof by TwoBit on Sunday December 27, 2015 @07:13PM (#10799211)
Xcode chokes on large text files as well. A large file that VC++ can dislay and edit easily will be glacial to navigate and edit in Xcode.
Re:Moore's law hits the roof by vitd on Monday December 28, 2015 @06:37PM (#10804162)
Yeah, I've seen that, too. My experience has been that it takes several seconds to open the file or to switch back to it from another file, but once it's opened, I don't find editing it to be slow.
Re:Moore's law hits the roof by vitd on Monday December 28, 2015 @06:36PM (#10804151)
Yeah, the debugger one I don't get at all. I don't see the same problems in lldb on the command-line. In the past (when it was using gdb) I was told it was due to the data formatters. I would turn them off and the problem would go away, but I no longer see a way to turn them off.
Re:Moore's law hits the roof by GFK_of_xmaspast on Sunday December 27, 2015 @08:42PM (#10799416)
> I wish I could code for iPhone with TurboC, the thing just worked, no loading time, if I hit a button, it do what I want instantly.

I haven't used turboc in over 20 years, but I don't recall it doing things like code completion and refactoring and all the other stuff one expects from a modern ide. (this is not to defend xcode)

Re:Moore's law hits the roof by l1n on Sunday December 27, 2015 @12:53PM (#10798146)
Bitcoin mining.
Re:Moore's law hits the roof by y4mi on Sunday December 27, 2015 @03:19PM (#10798623)
doubtful, more likely a bug - and its supposedly getting addressed in an update in January.
Re:Moore's law hits the roof by aplorbust on Sunday December 27, 2015 @06:15PM (#10799092)
"I wish I could code for the iPhone with TurboC, the thing just worked, no loading time, if I hit a button it do what I wanted instantly."

That was the past. This is the future. Always improving...

Re:Moore's law hits the roof by mikeash on Sunday December 27, 2015 @06:53PM (#10799171)
MiniProg is pleased to announce that loading times have been reduced from 3 seconds to 10 seconds.
Re:Moore's law hits the roof by chirau on Sunday December 27, 2015 @06:40PM (#10799138)
A regressing future, you mean?
Re:Moore's law hits the roof by chillaxtian on Sunday December 27, 2015 @07:44AM (#10797275)
based on historical evidence, a dedicated chip for executing javascript will be created before the industry makes a concerted effort to find a better tool.
Re:Moore's law hits the roof by adwn on Sunday December 27, 2015 @08:16AM (#10797346)
You're probably joking, but the "we need CPUs that are optimized for our high-level languages"-argument has been raised again and again in all seriousness in the past, without anyone ever showing a convincing way to speed up Javascript, Python, etc. in hardware. Fact is, chasing pointers through small objects or looking up methods in hash tables is very cache-unfriendly, and memory latency is the bottleneck for many computational tasks today.

Instead, we should work on improved languages that provide better compromises between performance and convenience. Rust, for example, is a good step in this direction.

Re:Moore's law hits the roof by simonster on Sunday December 27, 2015 @09:51AM (#10797565)
There's http://www.azulsystems.com/products/vega/processor, which is a CPU with special GC instructions, created by the same company as one of the most sophisticated garbage collectors. Apparently they thought they could speed things up with specialized hardware. Not sure what the performance looks like in practice, but it is interesting that it exists...
Re:Moore's law hits the roof by ghaff on Sunday December 27, 2015 @10:08AM (#10797606)
Azul had/has some interesting technology. (They're still around but just do software now.) I had some conversations on this topic broadly at a conference I was speaking at a month or so ago which had more hardware/software overlap than is typical. IMO, we're unlikely to come up with anything else in the near-term that delivered the kind of scaling CMOS process technology did. As a result, it's at least possible that we'll see specialized hardware make more sense in a world where "Moore's Law" won't let general purpose x86 chips just hit the same performance level in a couple of years.
Re:Moore's law hits the roof by marcosdumay on Sunday December 27, 2015 @09:11AM (#10797480)
Well, whatever language you want to run, processors that are good for cache unfriendly tasks would be huge for logical AI, data mining, some kinds of image processing, and possibly a lot of other tasks.

As dies get bigger, there's no law of nature saying that CPU power must be concentrated far from memory.

Re:Moore's law hits the roof by adwn on Sunday December 27, 2015 @03:40PM (#10798694)
> As dies get bigger, there's no law of nature saying that CPU power must be concentrated far from memory.

Actually, there is. The main reason why the L1 cache is so small, is that a larger cache would take more cycles to access. The L2 cache is allowed to have a higher latency, so the electrical signals have more time to propagate through a physically larger area.

3D stacked dies alleviate this problem, and the trend goes towards putting several dies side-by-side in a single package (a chip), enabling lower latencies, higher throughput, and less power consumption.

Re:Moore's law hits the roof by marcosdumay on Sunday December 27, 2015 @04:26PM (#10798818)
Yes, if you concentrate all your CPU power on a single region, it'll be far from most of the memory.

There's natural law that mandates the CPU power to be concentrated.

Re:Moore's law hits the roof by wolfgke on Sunday December 27, 2015 @08:35AM (#10797395)
> a dedicated chip for executing javascript will be created

Unluckily this is not so easy: If you know a way, Yossi Kreinin would be really interested to know:

> http://yosefk.com/blog/the-high-level-cpu-challenge.html

And here is a list of ideas/problems that he identified within "the usual suspects":

> http://yosefk.com/blog/high-level-cpu-follow-up.html

Re:Moore's law hits the roof by hamiltonkibbe on Sunday December 27, 2015 @05:18PM (#10798960)
You just replace the "C" transistors with "Javascript" transistors
Re:Moore's law hits the roof by k__ on Sunday December 27, 2015 @08:01AM (#10797316)
Most people are simply value oriented if it comes to programming languages.

I worked in many companies that would consider stuff like Java too "enterprisey".

In 2006 most employers said "There is an abundance of PHP coders, why should I switch to something more expensive?!"

Now they say this about JavaScript.

And devs think "Well, lets learn something to make money with. Since there are some much JavaScript jobs, lets learn it!"

I did so myself and made good money.

Re:Moore's law hits the roof by Scarblac on Sunday December 27, 2015 @09:10AM (#10797474)
And they're mostly right -- there is great value in having one language be used by a large part of the industry.
Re:Moore's law hits the roof by reubenmorais on Sunday December 27, 2015 @09:34AM (#10797540)
Re:Moore's law hits the roof by developer2 on Sunday December 27, 2015 @10:08AM (#10797599)
I just wish the human race would stop pretending to know what the future may or may not hold.

You would think that with our recorded history, people would be smart enough to shut up about the "limitations of the future". There is not a single person alive today who knows what technology will look like in 10 years, let alone 100 or 1000+. All it takes is a single new discovery from a single person to completely change our understanding of what is possible with technology - or any other aspect of our lives.

The blatant arrogance with which people pretend to know what the future holds is infuriating. Why do so many find it so difficult to admit that we know an infinitesimal portion of total knowledge of the universe? We only recently discovered electricity. Computing is still in its infancy. A computer from the future - if they are even called that anymore - may be directly comparable to what we have today. Or the technology may change so much that the two devices are not even recognizable as being related.

People need to stop telling me that it's impossible for technology to scale as much in the next 30 years as it has in the past 30. What looks like a technological ceiling today could evaporate at any time.

Why does the human race insist on believing that the knowledge we have gained so far is "all there is to know", until proven otherwise? It strikes me that one has to be quite literally an imbecile to not understand that the future will unfurl much that we cannot even fathom today. This insistence that the world of computing 50 years from now must somehow be built on the shoulders of existing technology... it's absurd to be that closed-minded.

Re:Moore's law hits the roof by wolfgke on Sunday December 27, 2015 @10:39AM (#10797695)
There a physical barriers, say, conservation of energy (or for mechanical systems conservation of linear and angular momentum), non-decreasing entropy etc. If I were a physicist I could tell you a lot more of these invariants (say from quantum physics). We surely don't know what technology the future will have, but I would bet that at least for the next 50 years there will be no fundamental breakthrough that both changes our understanding of such laws of nature and is already at this timeframe available to be implemented in technology (the last time that such a breakthrough occured was theory/ies of relativity and quantum physics - both at the beginning of the 20th century).

So I might not know what the future is like, but we can surely make lots of scenarios highly unlikely.

Re:Moore's law hits the roof by EdiX on Sunday December 27, 2015 @11:47AM (#10797928)
> There is not a single person alive today who knows what technology will look like in 10 years

Agreed, nobody knows what's going to happen in the future, however...

>Computing is still in its infancy. A computer from the future - if they are even called that anymore - may be directly comparable to what we have today. Or the technology may change so much that the two devices are not even recognizable as being related.

... you should remember that 'nobody' also includes you. For computers to keep getting faster we'd need something faster than a MOSFET to build our computers on.

The fact that it hasn't been discovered in 90 years doesn't mean it's not going to be discovered ever, but it also doesn't mean it's bound to be discovered soon because of the unstoppable kurtzweilian march of progress.

Since we can't predict future discoveries because of the law of total expectations the best we can do is try to describe what the future looks like from here.