Well, the potential EPA fine per-car is $37,500.

An amazing move would be for the EPA to force the cars off the road, and force VW to pay for the affected customers' new cars.

Or the EPA could force VW to release an update for the affected cars' ECU, and avoid sending a million perfectly serviceable cars to the landfill.

Which, I believe, is what is supposed to happen.

That only works if the issue can be resolved via ECU. The problem isn't just that the cars are reporting wrong data when being tested, but that the cars are producing more gasses than they are supposed to. If the update only fixes the software to report correctly, then the car will fail the emissions test. I rather doubt it's only a software fix that will solve the problem. Chances are there will need to be a hardware alteration to resolve the underlying issue. In that case, an update to the ECU wouldn't resolve the problem. You will need to bring your car to a dealer (Likely a VW-certified dealer) to have the solution applied as well as the software patch to make sure it is reporting correct data while undergoing emissions testing.

I believe the issue lies in the cars' ability to fallback to a lower-performance mode when the system recognizes that it's being tested. The low-performance mode passes the tests. The ECU update would require that the "emissions-passing low-performance mode" be engaged permanently. It's not that the cars can't pass emissions, it's that they choose not to.

> The problem isn't just that the cars are reporting wrong data when being tested, but that the cars are producing more gasses than they are supposed to.

Perhaps my understanding of testing processes is incorrect, but I was under the impression that testing relies on an external testing device, not the car's internal reporting. The cars passed not because they all told the same lie, but because they all behaved properly when they knew they were being watched.

If they did that, VW would be sued by customers for not delivering the product they paid for. It has been shown that VW can't eat the charge that would result of even small numbers of customers doing that, and it has been shown that the German state is not willing to destroy VW.

So suddenly the fix is "intensive dialog with the authorities" instead of fixing the problem.

Then you have a separate problem: All the people who already forked money over to Volvo will suddenly have their possession downgraded/crippled without compensation.

True, though Volvo != Volkswagen.

We're left with three options, each of which is unappealing to some group.

1) Leave affected VWs as-is. Fine VW as necessary. Cars will continue to pollute above the permitted amount.

2) Neuter affected VWs. Fine VW as necessary. Owners will suffer performance loss.

3) Neuter/recall affected VWs. Require VW to compensate owners the price of a replacement. Not sure how VW would fare with such a steep fine.

Any such update will be effectively optional, though, won't it? (I don't know, I don't own a car anymore and the last one I had used an ECU probably dumber than today's toasters.)

In Norway there has been talk from the DMV equivalent [1] that people who don't have their cars updated in the recall will have their registrations cancelled. So if you keep driving, the police will stop you. Automated license plate scanners and all that, I don't think many will skip it.

What's more likely is that if many people feel their cars are sluggish after the update, aftermarket diesel tuning will become (even more) popular.

[1] Source (in Norwegian): http://www.vg.no/forbruker/bil-baat-og-motor/dieselskandalen...

States with state inspection could plausibly require proof of some form that the update has been applied. States which use OBD-II diagnostics should generally already be capable of doing this by reading the CALID supplied by the ECU (it's part of the standard), so they could work off of that.

Hell, if we're lucky maybe the testing center can flash the update themselves right there on the test rig over OBD-II if the car doesn't have it. Would save everyone- the State, the consumer, even VW, a lot of heartache in handling a mandatory update.

Or a nice market for VW diesels might develop in non-inspecting states.

They already effectively are. Aftermarket ECUs that completely ignore emission standards are (and have been) widely available.

It could be quite easy to enforce through registration data and refusing to renew until proof of a fix is provided.