Re:Not Even Scientists Can Easily Explain P-values
by tedsanders on Wednesday November 25, 2015 @02:18PM
(#10628970)
No no no. A p-value cannot tell you the probability a coin is fair. This is exactly the misconception that makes p-values a bad tool.
Suppose I have a coin and flip HHHHH. Can you tell me the probability the coin is fair? No, it's fundamentally unknowable. We can say that a fair coin would have a 3% chance of flipping HHHHH (the p-value), but we can't say with what probability our coin is fair.
Suppose I have a coin and flip HHHHH. Can you tell me the probability the coin is fair? No, it's fundamentally unknowable. We can say that a fair coin would have a 3% chance of flipping HHHHH (the p-value), but we can't say with what probability our coin is fair.