Re:A woman who can smell Parkinson's disease
by Gravityloss on Thursday October 22, 2015 @06:44PM
(#10435645)
That's a good point. On the other hand, if it was common for people (one in a thousand) to smell Parkinson's, somebody would have come forward 200 years ago? A doctor or nurse, perhaps. So, on population level it should be extremely rare.
Of course, she is not a person picked at random, we should look at the population of people claiming to have done these sort of things already on their own. This population would be expected to contain a large portion of people with mental issues and charlatans trying to gain some financial benefit. If she doesn't have a history of either, then the prior jumps up to a very high level already. It is not very likely for a normal person to claim this sort of thing, unless they already have good evidence by themselves already.
Of course, she is not a person picked at random, we should look at the population of people claiming to have done these sort of things already on their own. This population would be expected to contain a large portion of people with mental issues and charlatans trying to gain some financial benefit. If she doesn't have a history of either, then the prior jumps up to a very high level already. It is not very likely for a normal person to claim this sort of thing, unless they already have good evidence by themselves already.