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Re:Square files for IPO by beat on Wednesday October 14, 2015 @04:47PM (#10389382)
Same logic as angels and venture capital... you don't buy for profit, you buy for growth. As long as their growth numbers are great, profit numbers don't have to be.

In 2012, they lost $85m. In 2014, they lost $154m. How much bigger are were they in 2014 relative to 2012? If it's more than 2x (and I have no doubt it is), they're on the right track. If they're 5x bigger, they're doing fantastic - revenue growth is outpacing red ink growth by a healthy margin. That means sooner or later, they'll not only be profitable, but tremendously so.

Square is a category-killer, in a key category.

Re:Square files for IPO by JonFish85 on Wednesday October 14, 2015 @04:56PM (#10389452)
"That means sooner or later, they'll not only be profitable, but tremendously so."

Says who? Growth is great, but it doesn't necessarily mean that profits are in the pipeline (e.g. Groupon).

And on top of that, what exactly is it that Square does that it's going to be profitable on? Is it the Point of Sale devices? Is it their Square Readers? Is it their small-business loans? They're not a terribly focused company, and maybe that's a reflection of their CEO doing double-time (completely speculation on my part).

Personally I see this as their last-ditch effort to grab some cash, to exit before the market gets worse. Their investors don't want to be left holding the bag when the IPO market gets cold, so it's better to cash out now while the name Square is worth something than to bet that they'll get bigger/better in the future.

Re:Square files for IPO by revelation on Wednesday October 14, 2015 @05:10PM (#10389557)
What is a category-killer? From what I can tell, they are a middleman to another middleman (you could call them the third wheel), only one of which has the leverage in this world (it's not Square).

We read about them because... I'm not too sure actually, I guess it's because they are burning VC money and have a splendid website.

Re:Square files for IPO by beat on Wednesday October 14, 2015 @05:47PM (#10389764)
I should add that, as a customer of Square's customers, I breath a sigh of relief every time I see a restaurant or small business using Square for point of sale. It means I'll get email receipts, that I won't have to calculate tips, that I'm unlikely to get mischarged, that my credit card info isn't passing through some half-assed amateur homebrew system, etc. It means I'm not trying to understand whether to push X or the green button for credit rather than debit, it means I can write a nice signature with my finger rather than some terrible low-res scratch with a bad plastic pen in a tiny box, etc.

As someone who uses other people's payment systems, Square makes me happy. It's a product that respects the users.

Re:Square files for IPO by orbitur on Wednesday October 14, 2015 @07:02PM (#10390131)
I'm a happy Square user too.

But too bad we don't actually make them money.

Re:Square files for IPO by beat on Wednesday October 14, 2015 @05:30PM (#10389692)
Point of sale. They're building toward a monopoly on point-of-sale devices in small businesses. A lot of restaurants and locally owned shops have ditched their old registers in favor of Square registers, and Square gets a cut of all their sales. They can expand outward from there, getting into the enterprise market for chains, replacing the ugly, expensive bloatware.

Really complex retailers with broad product lines, like supermarkets and big box retailers, will continue with highly customized in-house solutions. But for retailers with only dozens or hundreds rather than thousands of products, and limited budget to buy fancy solutions, it's a godsend.

And, because the customers are making a major, high-risk, customer-facing commitment, they're going to be very sticky, very unlikely to switch. Basically, Square is entering a market where the established players are too slow and coarse-grained to reach a lot of potential customers, and then they'll have a terrific barrier to entry. That sounds like a good deal to me, from an investment point of view.

Re:Square files for IPO by brown9-2 on Wednesday October 14, 2015 @06:14PM (#10389911)
A lot of restaurants and locally owned shops have ditched their old registers in favor of Square registers

Some citations would be nice

Re:Square files for IPO by beat on Thursday October 15, 2015 @10:26AM (#10393306)
Do you go to independent restaurants or small businesses? Here in Minneapolis, where "buy local" is a serious thing, we do it all the time. But if you only shop and eat at national chains, you won't see it.
Re:Square files for IPO by justinator on Wednesday October 14, 2015 @04:58PM (#10389468)
I'm always curious why it's seems it's always this Hail Mary play, in attempt to win the lottery.

It's betting on a future, and the future is unpredictable.

"Too Big To Fail" is not the terminology I would ever want towards something I develop - I think Titanic.

I understand that businesses do not start out profitable from the get go, but $700 million in debt?

Re:Square files for IPO by narrowrail on Wednesday October 14, 2015 @06:14PM (#10389913)
First Data, the largest merchant acquirer (spun out of AMEX years ago) is going public on Thur. with $18B in debt. They were taken private 7 years ago for $30B. Go figure.

Edit: Here's First Data's S-1:

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/883980/00011931251533...

Re:Square files for IPO by hkmurakami on Wednesday October 14, 2015 @06:19PM (#10389934)
Well that sounds like a classic LBO style series of events, which should be in a separate category from IPOs that are reached through somewhat more natural means.
Re:Square files for IPO by gchokov on Wednesday October 14, 2015 @04:49PM (#10389393)
We've already seen this. It's going to be spectacular failure.