Wouldn't the current and future production be factored into the price, though? I'd have to guess that 5.3 billion is a low estimate for actual losses if you owned one of these in 2011 and still hold it.

Your double counting the returns as future cash flows are already factored into the sale price.

Suppose you had a bond worth 2$ that paid out 1$ and is now worth 1$. That's not a paper loss of 1$.

PS: At the last auction, in 2008, the opening bid was $189,000, and medallions sold for as little as $226,000. http://www.thenewyorkworld.com/2014/01/20/taxi-medallions/

In total, TLC will be auctioning off 2,000 new medallions, 40 percent of them to drivers. (January 20, 2014) that's a significant part of the price drop.

I was speaking more to the loss of future earnings because of the lower demand for traditional taxis. Any earnings you do get out of ownership are already calculated into the value of the medallion, so not only are you losing the difference in value but also the earnings that it enable you to receive (but you'll no longer get even though you spent the original price expecting them).

PPS: Peaks 130$ per sift * 2 shifts per day call it 75 to 100k / year. 4 * 75 = 300k, 4 * 100 = 400k. So, yes they lost value, but far less than you might think.