Re:Exponential Economist Meets Finite Physicist
by dredmorbius on Tuesday September 15, 2015 @09:22PM
(#10224158)
The tie between energy, population, and GDP growth rates to various points back to 1 AD, via the Angus Maddison datasets, is fairly well established:
http://ourfiniteworld.com/2012/08/29/the-long-term-tie-betwe...
There are very good thermodynamic reasons to suspect the relationship will continue to hold.
> Note: This conversation is my contribution to a series at www.growthbusters.org honoring the 40th anniversary of the Limits to Growth study. You can explore the series here. Also see my previous reflection on the Limits to Growth work. You may also be interested in checking out and signing the Pledge to Think Small and consider organizing an Earth Day weekend house party screening of the GrowthBusters movie.
I do agree that exponential growth in energy use won't end well. I'm reminded of the polar heat radiators on Trantor in Foundation by Isaac Asimov ;)
I also find the linear fit in log energy use vs time[0] somewhat dubious. It's confusing to just look at energy use. What matters is the relationship between economic growth and energy use. I'm sure that's been done. I'll look into it and report back :)
[0] http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/wp-content/uploads/2011/...