> Plus, in the US, your cat can run for President. It means absolutely nothing. Legally? Only if your cat is over the age of thirty-five and is a natural born citizen of the United States.

The age requirement is a tough one...I believe that would make your cat the Ralph Hall of feline politicans.

Depends on what "run" means.

Can the cat become President? Clearly not.

Can the cat get on the ballot? I imagine every locality requires people on the ballot to be eligible to take the office in question, so no.

But we're not even at that stage yet. Right now, "running for President" is nothing more than an announcement that a person is doing so. It's one of those actions that you can perform merely by stating that you're doing it, like "I apologize" or "I order you to ...."

And on that note, I'm running for President too. Unlike most cats, I'm actually eligible, so I have that going for me.

I don't see the argument that Trump is trolling. He's spent considerable time over the past several years injecting himself into the political debate, which now seems like his clear intention was to position himself as a viable candidate for the presidency.

He's also reaching a point in his campaign where he's spending considerable time preparing himself for the primary season and will also need to start spending considerable money.

It's hard to really see why he would do all this in order to make Jeb Bush seem "less bad". If you recall the 2012 primary, there were a similar number of candidates, but the person who won was the most moderate of them, Mitt Romney. However, in 2012, there was never really on "outsider" as popular as Trump. I think it's less apt to compare Trump to Herman Cain than it is to compare him to the runs of Steve Forbes or Ross Perot.

Trump's current popularity might be completed related to the fact that he isn't coming from a political background and isn't acting like a politician. Mark Cuban said he doesn't necessarily support Trump's positions, but does support the idea that we need more people like Trump involved in politics.

Trump is certainly not trolling. Don't underestimate the probability that he will win.

I put some money on Trump at 11:1 so I'm estimating the probability at higher than that. Scott Adams has a mildly entertaining series of blog posts on why he thinks he'll win. Roughly that he's good at persuasion techniques. http://blog.dilbert.com/post/128552964506/the-outsider-expla...

One reason I think he may do it is that he's spoken out against the carried interest exemption for hedge funds. It seems obviously fair that hedge fundies should pay as much or more as doctors and nurses and the like but the mainstream politicians don't touch it because they want the campaign contributions and are scared of them funding their opponents instead. I'm hypothesising that the voters are fed up with their representatives being bought by wealthy special interests.

Both Clinton and Sanders are also in favor of closing the carried interest loophole, and Clinton campaigned on it in 2008, too. It's a commonplace position in the Democratic party. "Mainstream politicians don't touch it" should probably be "mainstream Republicans don't touch it".

I am guessing that probability is close to zero. The presidential race is a multi-stage contest. Trump happens to be good at working the current stage, but his current actions will eventually catch up to him later. I used to be a big fan of the show Survivor. Russell Hantz had a similar run: twice in a row he made it all the way to the end, but because of how he got there he could not actually win the grand prize. Trump is similar: he is going to pull a lot of stunts, get lots of attention and spend lots of money. Then the rubber meets the road and he'll lose. The real question is whether he is going to be the Republican nominee, because if he is then they'll be handing the victory over to the Democrats. My guess is that like many vanity candidates before Trump, he'll fizzle out before the primaries, but if he does make it even more hilarity will ensue.

How much did you bet at what odds did Trump won't become president? Surely it's a wise investment strategy, given how certain you seem to think the future is.

Odds are something like 15:1, so if you think it's 150:1 - or more - that's a 10x certain return. It's a no-brainer, in that case.

The point is that talk is cheap. Of course it's more likely that he won't become president, but don't rule out the chance that he might. If you do, it'd be wise to put your money where your mouth is.

I generally don't gamble, that's why I didn't bet any money on this race, or any other. In fact, I don't even know where/how one would place such a bet.

You are right, talk is cheap and I am just shooting my mouth here, like everyone here.

You can bet either way here https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.10...

It's a peer to peer platform. Approx £500k punted on the US president so far on betfair.

For what it's worth Nate Silver thinks he has no chance.

> In fact, I don't even know where/how one would place such a bet.

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-president...

Lots of people taking bets.

His probability of winning doesn't affect the fact that he's trolling. In fact winning would just make the troll more successful.

I haven't figured out exactly what Trump is doing but I'm sure it's in no one's best interest but his own. The sad part is, I think that's true for everyone with the exception of Bernie Sanders who, unfortunately, is about as electable as a wet blanket.

As the late great Douglas Adams said, "anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job."

Why is Bernie Sanders unelectable, as opposed to all of the Republican candidates? Just because that's the story the media tells?

Like I said in my other reply. I think he lacks the charisma, command, and authority necessary in a President and I think his handling of the OA 206 protesters at his Seattle Rally is pretty telling of how he'd flounder in that role.

Why is Bernie Sanders and exception to your rule?

Bernie Sanders has a long history as a public servant and advocate for the people. He doesn't have a legacy of corruption, self interest, exploitation, profiteering, deception or scandal that you find in all the other candidates. He tries to be a good steward of the tax payer's money from his walking to work instead of being driven in a limo, to his work on the Senate Budget Committee.

He doesn't strike me as having ulterior motives like every other candidate out there right now.

Unfortunately he lacks the charisma, command, and authority necessary in a President and I think his handling of the OA 206 protesters at his Seattle Rally is pretty telling of how he'd flounder in that role.

> Relax, McAfee is just trolling. As is Trump.

That's working out pretty well for Trump. McAfee doesn't have the giant personal warchest Trump has, of course.

> Plus, in the US, your cat can run for President.

Only if it's 35 or older, which is unlikely.

It can't be president unless it's 35 or older (and a citizen of the United States, which is also difficult for a cat) but I don't know of any age requirement for running.

Trump is a fairly serious candidate now. No, I don't think he'll get the nomination, but I think there are going to be a lot of backroom deals here to make sure he doesn't run third-party and spoil the election for the GOP. I'm sure some more "legitimate" members of the GOP are trying to get his endorsement as well, which will strengthen his negotiation position.

What he's trying to get is unknown, but he may get something like a cabinet-level position. Secretary of State Donald Trump should give all voters a moment of pause.