Formalizing that process and using externally-collected data is just de-black-boxing something that happens in a black-box form in the professional's mind.
You point out the need to pick the right measurement, and I agree, but it could be as simple as "What's the effect on conversion?" It has to be something! You can't just say "We're re-designing because I'm a HMI genius."
Until then, the best known way to design something nice is to hire a talented designer and trust their instincts.
...for now, given today's technology, but I wouldn't bet on it long term. History is full of examples of things we once thought only humans could do.
But once many candidate designs are available to choose from, what better a way is there to unambiguously decide on the best besides testing and measuring?
But at that point, why not just cut out the middleman, forget the tests, and let the artists be artists?
See also: Footnote 3 of http://www.paulgraham.com/colleges.html#f3n
The evolutionary, data-driven approach will never yield a Nest thermostat, iPhone, Helvetica, or flag of New Mexico. We have no idea how to even begin to write a fitness function for good design.