Cool Derivatives and Bank Consultants

Re:Cool Derivatives and Bank Consultants by makeset on Wednesday August 19, 2015 @03:20PM (#10087757)

No, it's a wonderfully great time to invest, because given the strong national economy the market is due to keep climbing and recoup the setback from the latest crash, so staying on the sidelines is losing out.

Notice how that's no less informed about the future than your wild speculation?

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:Cool Derivatives and Bank Consultants by shostack on Wednesday August 19, 2015 @03:30PM (#10087835)

Thanks for this. I keep seeing all these doomsday posts of people feeling like there is an axe hanging over their heads waiting for it to drop. The same is true about the real estate market.

The reality is that outside of a few people, the last crash was largely unanticipated. Just as with that crash, the next one is likely to be another black swan event we cannot predict.

Black swan events don't stick to a schedule and you can't time the market.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:Cool Derivatives and Bank Consultants by roymurdock on Wednesday August 19, 2015 @03:37PM (#10087892)

Market sentiment is a powerful force. Never underestimate a critical mass of pessimism/optimism, no matter how irrational.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:Cool Derivatives and Bank Consultants by w1ntermute on Wednesday August 19, 2015 @03:53PM (#10088013)

Exactly - predicting 200 of the last 2 crashes doesn't make you any more accurate than predicting 0 of the last 2 crashes.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:Cool Derivatives and Bank Consultants by cryoshon on Wednesday August 19, 2015 @06:19PM (#10088926)

Ok, well, let's revisit this comment next year. A crash isn't guaranteed, but the US economy is quite far from strong.

To imply my prediction is wild speculation is, heh, well, let's just watch the markets.

[ Parent | on HN ]