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Re:Registered clinical trials make positive findings vanish by danieltillett on Tuesday August 18, 2015 @05:40PM (#10082402)
Everyone knows what the problem is. It is not that the drugs don't work (well most of them), it is that they only work for a small subset of people. It is possible these days to figure out which drugs work for which patients, but doing this makes the drug non-viable commercially. We are stuck with a system where the way a drug is tested is totally different to the way it will be used in practice - a drug has to work in a large percentage of people in the trial, while once improved it just becomes another drug through which people get cycled while their doctor tries to figure out which one works for the individual.
Re:Registered clinical trials make positive findings vanish by ZoFreX on Tuesday August 18, 2015 @06:31PM (#10082646)
This isn't what "the problem" is. There are lots of problems, but one of the big ones this combats is systematic deliberate fraud. Companies were cherry-picking the trials that got results (and if you run enough trials, some will have results just through chance) in order to get drugs approved that were not any better than placebo.

If there is actual data to suggest who the drug works on best, and empirical tests to determine who that is, it can absolutely be tested within those limits and approved for use on that population.

Re:Registered clinical trials make positive findings vanish by danieltillett on Tuesday August 18, 2015 @10:59PM (#10083480)
The reason the companies are cherry picking the results is they know this basic problem exists. Only drugs that have evidence of working at stage I and II progress to stage III.

What happens is the drug companies decide at stage III what patients to let into the trial. What they are trying to avoid is anything that will limit the market size once approved. This means they try to skate as close as they can to the effectiveness limit and still get the drug approved.

For example, if they have a new cancer drug that they know only works on cancers with certain mutations, what they will try to do is to test the drug in a broad population of patients including those without the mutation. Since for the approval process it does not really matter how effective the drug is (as long as overall it is statically significant) and that you can only market to the population you tested in, you will want to shove in as many “filler patients" as you think the drug can support. Due to the difficulty of designing large trials they often get the filler number wrong. I don’t condone this activity, but this is the commercial reality.

More fundamentally the pharmaceutical industry is being crushed between two very powerful forces - the cost of developing new drugs continues to get more expensive every year (mostly thanks to regulations), while the real market for each drug shrinks as sub-populations are identified for each disease. Combine this with a refusal of society and insurance companies to pay ever increasing drug prices and the outlook for the industry is not great.

Re:Registered clinical trials make positive findings vanish by ZoFreX on Wednesday August 19, 2015 @05:29AM (#10084441)
I've never heard this conspiracy theory before. Have you got some written evidence to hand?
Re:Registered clinical trials make positive findings vanish by danieltillett on Wednesday August 19, 2015 @05:45AM (#10084475)
This is not a conspiracy theory. Who to include in a stage III trial is one of the most difficult problems facing pharma management. They aim to make these as broad as possible and lots of drugs have died because the stage III trials were made too open.

If you want to get a good idea of what really goes on in the pharam industry have a read of the “In The Pipeline” blog [1]. Most of the real value is in the comments.

1. http://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/

Re:Registered clinical trials make positive findings vanish by marincounty on Tuesday August 18, 2015 @09:05PM (#10083168)
"Everyone knows what the problem is. It is not that the drugs don't work (well most of them), it is that they only work for a small subset of people."

1. I honestly don't give drug companies that much integrity.

2. Sadly, I feel they systematically lied to the FDA in order to get their product to market? No, I don't think the average pharmaceutical research scientist wanted to poison people, but I have horrid feeling a lot of them went along with the sharade in order to make a living? I picture too many scientists thinking, "Well it doesn't work as we thought, but I'm really not hurting anyone because the Plecebo Effect was huge? So, in order to keep my job, I will not object to these results/statistics?". I have found that when it comes down to a person's livelihood, life--money; people don't raise their hands? They go into this weird, socially acceptable denial?("Hay it's legal!") That's why when even here on HN, I make sure to read the blurry statements.(I'm usually disappointed, but I want to hear the dissenters, and critics.)

3. I'll admit I threw the baby out with the bath water years ago, and I don't have hard evidence (in front of me collated, and ready to provide objective examples) to back up my intuition, and assertions, but I don't think one has to look too far for examples?

4. I grew up not questioning scientific integrity. I thought these institutions/people were the pillars of honesty!; what I have learned in the last decade, specifically about the Pharmacutical Industry, hurt me on so many levels--I literally feel like crying sometimes.

5. My understanding of statistics is fuzzy. To those that need a refresher, I found two books helpful: How to lie with Statistics, by Darrell Huff., and The Comic Book Guide to Statistics--don't know the author.

Re:Registered clinical trials make positive findings vanish by fragsworth on Tuesday August 18, 2015 @09:50PM (#10083300)
Stop using so many question marks to end your sentences. Use periods instead.