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Re:Commodities Are Crashing Like It's 2008 All Over Again by cryoshon on Thursday August 06, 2015 @04:13PM (#10019105)
Consumption is still pretty weak in the US as a result of late-capitalism income inequality-- in my opinion, the US will continue with the gradual stagnation we've seen since the crash. This stagnation has been going on for years now, and it constitutes a serious crisis of its own, but the sky isn't falling like in 2008. Until there's another crash, that is. Then, there will be another "recovery" with another large slice of the wealth going to the oligarchs. My completely uneducated and totally invented prognostication for this crash is mid Q4 2015 or early Q1 2016. The biggest indications that a crash is coming are the record high stock values we've seen recently. Relatedly, the SV bubble is going to pop when investors realize that there isn't really that much "disruptiveness" in a lot of the software startups they've been funding.

China's consumption is strong as a result of it being in early to middle stage capitalism, which drastically reduces income inequality, which takes the form of a new middle class(perhaps temporarily). The problem with China involves their middle class's population-level involvement with the stock market. Everyone and their mom is invested into the market, meaning that the commoners are currently losing vast amounts of wealth as a result of the implosion. Whether this ultimately will hurt consumption isn't clear.

Europe might be okay in the medium or long term, but a small crisis is already playing out right now. Greece, while somewhat ameliorated by recent talks, is still a ticking time bomb.

An interesting third case is Japan, which is now having its second "lost generation" in a row as a result of long-term stagnation and demographic issues. Japan is a neglected back-door to the world economy. The coming months could be a much-delayed ultimate collapse or resurgence from the sleeping economic giant, though after decades of horizontal movement it's hard to envision what either would look like.

Interesting times ahead.

Re:Commodities Are Crashing Like It's 2008 All Over Again by merpnderp on Thursday August 06, 2015 @04:27PM (#10019189)
s/late-capitalism/crony-corporatism/

We don't have capitalism, we have the joining of government and corporations and they are becoming ever more entwined.

Re:Commodities Are Crashing Like It's 2008 All Over Again by cryoshon on Thursday August 06, 2015 @04:46PM (#10019334)
Yeah, but I have to water down the language or else there will be idiots crawling out of the woodwork.

People get all ornery when you call it fascism.

Re:Commodities Are Crashing Like It's 2008 All Over Again by SovietDissident on Thursday August 06, 2015 @05:18PM (#10019516)
Don't mean to ride you on this point, but proper terms are very important. You can call it corporatism if you think fascism conjures up a black-and-white image of Il Duce, but calling it capitalism sets us back in terms of actually understanding the causes of our current crises, and hampers the already Sisyphean task of teaching people what capitalism actually means: a politico-economic system of laissez-faire and the protection of individual rights.

So, this is not a product of "late-capitalism income inequality"; it is a product of central banking in the U.S. and around the world, and their artificial tinkering with interest rates/the money supply for political expediency.

Re:Commodities Are Crashing Like It's 2008 All Over Again by CuriousSkeptic on Thursday August 06, 2015 @07:08PM (#10020033)
Isn't the fundamental piece of capitalism privately owned capital? What would we call a system of lasses-fair and protection of individual rights where those rights only included the right to rent capital from the state (not own it).
Re:Commodities Are Crashing Like It's 2008 All Over Again by jazzyk on Friday August 07, 2015 @09:59AM (#10022489)
I believe the proper term is statism, no?

Collusion of big business and the state.

Re:Commodities Are Crashing Like It's 2008 All Over Again by deciplex on Thursday August 06, 2015 @10:23PM (#10020655)
"Late" capitalism, which is to say, capitalism that has been around for a while, mostly is crony capitalism. There is a feedback loop between capitalism and democracy (and probably most other forms of government), a consequence of the positive correlation between wealth and power. A concentration of wealth leads to a concentration of power, which corrupts and degrades the democracy, leading to a further concentration of wealth and power, and so on. This is why treating capital markets as an end rather than a means is so dangerous.
Re:Commodities Are Crashing Like It's 2008 All Over Again by jayess on Thursday August 06, 2015 @04:38PM (#10019276)
a/k/a fascism
Re:Commodities Are Crashing Like It's 2008 All Over Again by shostack on Thursday August 06, 2015 @04:42PM (#10019313)
A few thoughts on your comment...

The SV scene isn't like the dotcom days without a business plan. There's a lot of startups now that have revenue from day one, and are cashflow positive. The value is tangible in many cases (not all).

Second, I wonder what impact the tanking China economy will have on the US real estate market. Wealthy Chinese have been parking their dollars in real estate here for a while, and with the stock market seen as more risky now, I wonder if that trend will increase and drive up home prices further.

Re:Commodities Are Crashing Like It's 2008 All Over Again by cryoshon on Thursday August 06, 2015 @04:54PM (#10019378)
I agree with you in regards to the SV scene, but it's important to remember that even established firms could sink under the right economic conditions. Sure, there's no obvious pets.com.

As far as the US real estate market goes, I'd say it's possible that people parking their money here in even greater numbers will accelerate the current drive for luxury real estate while causing a shrinking of the middle value real estate market. You also see this in London right now, with tons of new luxury buildings being built and sold off, only to sit empty and used as a value bank. The general effect is that real estate values in general rise sharply and people are forced out of middle-value areas so that they can be redeveloped into ultra-high value areas. These are geographically centered effects, though. I'm really not sure how much it could drive the larger real estate market, which is already as hot as it's been since the crash.

Re:Commodities Are Crashing Like It's 2008 All Over Again by nosuchthing on Thursday August 06, 2015 @05:35PM (#10019627)
Real estate investments are a bit of a musical chairs game. A temporary positive side effect for anyone who may leverage the gains before the rug is pulled out from the seemingly inevitable market force of the "business cycle" bubbles and waves.

Conversely, if it were investments in infrastructure, businesses, and tangible productive goods that create real world value, we could rest a bit easier.