timestap
Assuming startups like Etched (with its recent massive funding) could shrink CapEx quite a bit (and make it not such a large revenue shortfall)
- The impact of increasing fund sizes on returns (and why a $500M fund might need to generate $17.5B in exit value to 3X). - Novel strategies in which data science and AI can be applied in the VC investment process. - How VC, traditionally a “cottage industry”, is becoming more high-frequency
As well as some predictions on where the industry might be headed:
- How Solo GPs and smaller/nimbler firms could harness AI to rival much larger investment platforms. - The transformation of VC into a more traditional asset class (but with a twist!) - The potential re-emergence of ‘calm funds’ in a world of capital-efficient, AI-native startups - The changing role of CVCs and cloud hyperscalers in startup investing, and why massive funding rounds in foundation model startups probably won’t continue
Would love thoughts & feedback from the community!
Mad, China, and the Semiconductor Showdown (Part 2)
In Part 2 of my Substack mini-series, I highlight why access to semiconductors is crucial to maintaining the pace of innovation in AI, and why up until the past several years, access to leading-edge onshore fabrication capabilities has been less of a strategic focus.
I contend that geopolitical tensions in Asia and our reliance on the supply of AI accelerators manufactured in Taiwan creates a dangerous reflexive loop, and how that affects the ability for companies in the space (like OpenAI) to continually innovate. I also explore some interesting areas of opportunity that entrepreneurs may look to exploit.
Would love thoughts & comments!
The downstream effects on the application layer is an open question, however.
Mad, China, and the Semiconductor Showdown (Part 1)
In analyzing over 3,000 financings during my time working on the 2023 MAD Landscape (https://mad.firstmark.com/), I noticed some fascinating trends in how the US and China have taken very different approaches to advancing their respective ML/AI startup ecosystems.
In this two-part series, I explore how China has taken a much more “concentrated” approach to building its ML/AI ecosystem, and how this approach is designed to help China reach technology parity with the US (part 1).
I also highlight the importance (and the urgency) with which the US needs to achieve full semiconductor independence, so that the progress that we’ve enjoyed so far in the fields of ML/AI remain unimpeded (upcoming in part 2).
Feedback & comments appreciated!
I recently built a data science system to help VCs (like me!) identify interesting open-source startups using the GitHub API. I wrote about my experiences & learnings here & would love for folks to check it out!