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Here's an alleged secondary effect of 2 in a quote by Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan[1]:

“When I get hit up by people in the Middle East who are saying, ‘Hey, we’re looking at Polymarket to decide whether we sleep near the bomb shelter; we look at it every day’ and I’m like, ‘Oh, it’s really that popular over there?’” he added. “That’s very powerful. That’s an undeniable value proposition that did not exist before.”

I'm with Matt Levine here[2]:

"There is something particularly dystopian about the idea that:

a) Some countries will bomb other countries.

b) The people doing the bombing will profit from the bombing by insider trading the bombing contracts on prediction markets.

c) This will cause the prediction markets to correctly reflect the probability of bombing, allowing the people getting bombed to avoid being bombed."

[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-07/polymarke... [2] https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2026-03-12/lev...

Re:Why top firms paradoxically fire good workers on Friday November 21, 2025 @01:46AM (#46001867)
If it is indeed easy to move operations wholesale, I think we would see far more and quicker cases (not just arbitraging differences in labor organization, but also e.g. tax and regulatory regimes). It certainly happens, mind you, but my read is that different forms of institutional inertia puts a damper on the willingness to "re-home".
You're right about driver time being the key metric. mattlondon's reply[1] to the GP gives the extra context: the endurance is aligned pretty well with (EU) legally mandated breaks, allowing for mid-day charging.

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44478186

Edit: I see you've replied there.

Methanol has been used, as has rubbing alcohol and methyl ethyl ketone. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denatured_alcohol for further reading.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denatonium is used to make it unpalatable. Fun fact: the same chemical is also coated onto Nintendo Switch cartridges to discourage children from putting them in their mouths.

Re:WebGL Fluid Simulation on Sunday December 29, 2024 @05:22PM (#42543931)
Have you checked out mixbox[0]? The outputs do feel intuitively "right" as someone who has dabbled in watercolor, and the paper/videos cover the thinking and Kubelka-Munk theory well.

[0] https://github.com/scrtwpns/mixbox

Re:Steam's Last Stand on Friday May 31, 2024 @03:00AM (#40532210)
Jay Leno has a Doble car (mentioned in the article as a 1920s attempt at a "user-friendly" steam car revival). The video has great production and really shows the starting and driving processes: https://youtu.be/rUg_ukBwsyo
Re:Titanic tourist sub goes missing sparking search on Tuesday June 20, 2023 @03:01AM (#36400632)
There's at least one commercial acoustic underwater modem provider - Subnero out of Singapore. They claim up to 5km range:

https://subnero.com/products/modem.html

Re:Korean nuclear fusion reactor achieves 100M°C for 30 seconds on Thursday September 08, 2022 @07:40AM (#32764129)
> The typical efficiency of TEGs is around 5–8%

A steam turbine is many times more efficient.

Re:Waymo begins driverless rides in San Francisco on Wednesday March 30, 2022 @11:45AM (#30856768)
Scania did a neat affordance for this in their (otherwise rather incremental) autonomous AXL concept. A band of LEDs around the vehicle that light up "towards" a pedestrian once the vehicle takes them into account: https://youtu.be/0WN9xvAvEls?t=499
Re:Vermeer Restoration Reveals a Painting Within a Painting on Saturday September 11, 2021 @04:33AM (#28490362)
The explanation is right there in the article, and it does not involve your supposed modern day hubris:

Restorers found that the central panel of the artwork, known as the Adoration of the Mystic Lamb, had been painted over in the 16th Century.

Another artist had altered the Lamb of God, a symbol for Jesus depicted at the centre of the panel.

Now conservationists have stripped away the overpaint, revealing the lamb's "intense gaze" and "large frontal eyes".

The article is not about general infertility in couples.

It is specifically about male infertility, based on an objective measure of fertility (sperm count), which has indeed dropped over the past few decades - no one is trying to "blame everything on men".

Re:Why a land-value tax is inevitable on Saturday December 05, 2020 @05:36PM (#25319082)
To elaborate on that last point, one concrete model that was on the HN front page lately was the "climate club": https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.15000001
A UI with next to zero discoverability and an incredibly broad input set ("all speech") must really work for most conceivable inputs, or only die-hard enthusiasts will keep trying.
Re:The Un-American Rule on VC's Legal Fees on Saturday November 07, 2020 @04:01PM (#25019302)
For an institutional fund, they can be different, non-fungible pools of capital. The $15M comes from fund limited partner (LP) commitments as part of the investable capital of the fund (i.e. was earmarked for investments and is not the fund manager's money, in a very real sense), but the $100k might (depending on the LP agreement for the fund) come out of the management fees, and if so, is very much part of the P&L for the fund manager.

For a corporate VC, its typically all the same pool, though.

Re:Approval for Hotel Covered in Plants on Wednesday January 29, 2020 @11:53AM (#22182704)
I'm also reminded of the Oasia Downtown hotel in Singapore, which, like Park Royal, is designed by WOHA. It's a fairly recently completed skyscraper, and the plant scaffolding hasn't fully been overgrown yet: https://archello.com/project/oasia-hotel-downtown
Re:Stripe Corporate Card on Tuesday September 10, 2019 @10:37AM (#20928688)
Interchange fees are capped to 0.2-0.3% in the EU by regulation. Merchants pay less (to the issuer, ultimately) for the benefit of accepting credit cards, so there is less fees to hand out as cash back (from the issuer to the card owner).
Re:VisiCalc's Spreadsheets Changed the World on Monday June 17, 2019 @05:23PM (#20207524)
I believe mbostock's https://observablehq.com/ is trying to do that

A guide was linked the other day: https://observablehq.com/@observablehq/observables-not-javas...

Re:Spotify to Apple: Time to Play Fair on Wednesday March 13, 2019 @09:32AM (#19378404)
On 5 October 2011, Spotify was a freshly minted single-billion unicorn. Factually, no-one had plural billions of dollars on the line at that time, not even the senior exec I quoted.

Spotify was also comparatively small at the time, with limited hierarchy. The entire office - execs and rank-and-file alike - was respectful, with a fair number visibly upset and mourning.

Re:Spotify to Apple: Time to Play Fair on Wednesday March 13, 2019 @09:09AM (#19378209)
This does not ring true to my experience.

I was at the Spotify office the day the news of Steve's untimely death broke. It was a solemn day, and the the one senior executive I spoke to expressed true sorrow, as if a longtime friend had passed. Jobs was incredibly respected by the Spotify crew, as far as I'm concerned.

How is this related to an article that doesn't even mention GDPR?
Re:We're Entering a Golden Age of Podcasts on Thursday February 21, 2019 @09:04PM (#19222489)
I think podcasts, from a consolidation POV, looks more like video than music (for starters, think of the content length and engagement level). You'd swap app/provider to listen to a different podcast, but a music player with a limited subset of music is essentially DOA.
Re:What Happened to the 100000 Hour LED Bulbs? on Wednesday February 06, 2019 @08:37PM (#19102140)
Incandescents used to be 5% visible light at best, with 95% of energy turned into non-visible radiation.
I wish Android Beam had been pushed harder - it was an OS-level solution, and I understood it as playing really well with the Intent-centric API on Android, which meant basic functionality was essentially "free" to implement.
Re:Merging a Hasselblad 500C/M and a FujiFilm Instax 9 on Thursday October 11, 2018 @02:45AM (#18191394)
Oh wow, I've been wanting to do this exact project for the longest time. Are you able to share anything more on the custom manufactured bits and pieces, how you interfaced with the chemical roller mechanism, etc?
Re:Questions on Sunday September 30, 2018 @01:17PM (#18107109)
> As an example, I believe Spotify opened their original offices in both Stockholm and Göteborg more or less simultaneously.

Without disputing the technical correctness, Spotify's Göteborg office was literally a single desk at a shared office for the first three years of its existence.

Re:Google Dataset Search on Thursday September 06, 2018 @01:21AM (#17924051)
Re:Uber shuts down self-driving trucks unit on Monday July 30, 2018 @09:41PM (#17649884)
Agree. I figured the first step would be cruise-control-on-steroids: trucks from the same owner would have communicating distance sensors and brakes, enabling "convoy" driving at sub-meter vehicle spacing. Because of drafting in the convoy, you'd save fuel and money even with a driver in each truck.
Re:Slack Is Buying HipChat from Atlassian on Thursday July 26, 2018 @07:46PM (#17622349)
For being the business chat darling, Slack is just not that great at being an amazing chat platform.

I'm comparing to WhatsApp, because in my org that's what everyone defaults to, as the basic chat functionality in Slack is a subpar experience: * No delivery notices, even in private chat * Can't upload multiple attachments/images in one go, but instead defaults to N single uploads * No option not to download large images * Logs in slow, needs to be "connected" and thus struggles to send messages on intermittent connections

Maybe the HipChat infusion of people with a different viewpoint will help?

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