radiusvector

Did she debunk that article that was around microplastics in human testicles?

Agreed this is a real issue, one compounded by constant negative news cycles.

My little contribution in helping solve this issue is building and launching Clarion, an AI curator that filters for rational progress rather than noise -

https://clarion.today/

New Jersey has launched an updated Energy Master Plan targeting 100% clean electricity by 2035 and significant reductions in climate pollution, building on previous initiatives.

I will look to fix those things. Care to share feedback here? Thanks

Sure. A trade can be decomposed into entry and exit criteria.

Only trade when you have an edge, i.e your model suggests that there is a higher probability of an outcome in your favor rather than a pure coin toss - either in entry or in exit.

Even coin toss entries can make money if you have an edge in exits and vice versa.

All in all, you can be right less than 50% of the time per trade, and still have alpha if your winning trade is 2 times your losing trade. Standard expected value stuff. Heck, I know traders who bat 30 or 35% and make colossal amounts of dollars.

I'm a trader who runs a couple of profitable strategies. You can generate alpha by implementing quantitative (or discretionary) strategies as long as you adhere to the basic principles of profitable trading with a strong emphasis on risk management. There are a million possible trading strategies, which of these will suit your personality/risk tolerance/system design is a matter of personal choice.

Meanwhile Marc Andreesen thinks technology is going to solve everything forever and for everyone

Wow, Sundar is truly phenomenal.

Where's the profit part? How did you monetize stolen data?

> MBA ideas of an economic moat - lock-in, stickiness, etc - are "dark patterns".

Dramatic statement. I am an SWE and an MBA. There are merits to thinking about every aspect of the business. Tech/Product is just one - an important one in a Saas company, but still just one.

> But there are "light patterns": you can stay ahead in a technological race if you keep running;

This is another way of saying "build it and they will come". You have to combine good business/economic sense with great products.

Apple didn't just get to be Apple by staying ahead in a technological race. Arguably, they are behind a lot of other phone makers in specs. But they have a lot of people thinking about ecosystems, lock-in, marketing and other "MBA" concepts.

Strategy discussion aside, a 4% risk of ruin is not “low” by any means. A sophisticated investor would never accept.

> a deflationary currency means that you're better off holding it than investing it.

It is ridiculous to assume that any artificially designed deflationary digital asset will produce long term returns greater than an index like SPY, which is intrinsically tied to human productivity in the economy.

An average, semi-rational investor will always have the incentive to lend to a credit worthy person/business/asset, regardless of how much artificial deflation you can induce in your asset.

Just the deflationary nature of a currency isn't enough to destabilize cycles. Cycles run on credit-worthiness, or how likely is someone to return x% return in the future on an investment made today.

Compared to the Fed, which makes arbitrary (non-cyclical) adjustments to the "cost of money", Bitcoin's more predictable deflationary attributes might lead to more predictability in financial cycles.

This is of course, assuming the hundreds of other problems with Bitcoin as a currency, or credit-instrument have been solved.

The "currency" use-case has not proliferated or reached adoption at a scale (by any measure) that would make it a worthy medium of exchange, which fundamentally is the definition of a currency.

I think the analogy with FB might be interesting, but intrinsically inaccurate.

The value people get from FB is related to the value of other people being on the network, but there is an intrinsic value drived from the different use cases on the platform - photos, messaging, likes, fomo and what not. Which has directly been monetized using advertising.

The value you get from other people using Bitcoin is that the price goes up, without any other intrinsic value aside from "Maybe my investment grows" - in effect following the 'greater fool' theory (Buffett), or the 'castle in the air' theory (Malkiel et al).

Hopefully a lot? The SolarCity acquisition seemed shoddy to begin with.

Interestingly, I see a pattern of a strong anti-network effect in play.

Network effects are premised on the value of the network increasing in value as more users join. By definition then, the value of the network drops as people drop off.

While the speed of adoption might always be > speed of deletion, there is certainly an auto-catalytic effect to people deleting FB, or not using/posting to FB as much.

My Uncle is a researcher and has one of those famous checks from Knuth for pointing out an error in the book. Needless to say, he never intends on cashing it in, and treats it like a little trophy.

This just feels like propaganda from the meat industry. For every bit of scientific research touting the demerits of industrial-scale farming, the meat industry is incentivized to fight back.

Cohort by year. From the wine industry.

Analyzed in depth - https://sridharsmusic.com/analyzing-ycs-top-100-companies-li...

Agreed. I just did a deep dive on this data - https://sridharsmusic.com/analyzing-ycs-top-100-companies-li...

Could you give me a concrete example?

To me, it sounds like you are describing a naked short call, or a short put.

It is not a spread. By definition, spreads have limited risk, and limited rewards.

The four main types of spreads. Take a look at the PNL diagrams. It is limited risk. https://www.optionseducation.org/strategies_advanced_concept... https://www.optionseducation.org/strategies_advanced_concept... https://www.optionseducation.org/strategies_advanced_concept... https://www.optionseducation.org/strategies_advanced_concept...

How can you "wipe out" your account if you don't close a spread? AFAIK Robinhood does not allow for naked calls/puts or selling strangles without a collateral upfront.