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Primary source (English): https://www.vn.nl/trump-twitter-hacked-again/

Coin-OR is not from Google. I suspect that OP confused Coin-OR [0] with Google's OR-tools [1].

[0]: https://www.coin-or.org/ [1]: https://developers.google.com/optimization/

> "72% and 89% are as close as 75% and 50% in terms of being double the likelihood for a Republican win."

In a postscript (P.S.) Andrew Gelman clarified that the forecast distributions are close and not the probabilities of winning [0].

> "I’m not saying that 72% and 89% are close in probabilistic terms. I agree that there’s a big difference between 8-1 odds and 3-1 odds. What I’m saying is that the large difference in these probabilities arises from small differences in the forecast distributions. Changing a forecast from 0.54 +/- 0.02 to 0.53 +/- 0.025 is highly consequential to the win probability, but as uncertainty distributions they are similar and they are hard to distinguish directly. You can get much different headline probabilities from similar underlying distributions."

[0]: https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/08/14/new-fiveth...

The Wahoo Elemnt Bolt is great!

Yann LeCun (Chief AI @ FB) puts this article in perspective: https://www.facebook.com/yann.lecun/posts/10156068737942143

TLDR: The use of texture is inherent to the ImageNet dataset and not to deep learning / ConvNet. Training on less-textured versions of ImageNet drives the ConvNet to focus more on shape.

The fact sheet showcases the improvements in the forecast: https://www.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/DOCUMEN...

It's back up. It was down for about a minute here. Impressively quick fix.