pdecker
Re:Show HN: App that asks 'why?' every time you unlock your phone
on Wednesday November 27, 2024 @11:32AM (#42257323)
this is great, especially the design. but, as some of the comments have stated, it will prob get annoying.
Instead, I think it would be better to incentivize people to use their phone/social apps less.
Touch Grass. Earn Points.
Re:Sorry to burst your bubble
on Sunday July 19, 2015 @10:18PM (#9913732)
its debt cycles that one should really watch...check out Ray Dalio's "How The Economic Machine Works"...there's a video and a paper...the paper is much more informative.
Re:While other VCs seek Unicorns, Indie.vc is all about cashflow
on Tuesday March 03, 2015 @10:58AM (#9138315)
I'm just curious, but how do you "model utilities or infrastructure projects using cashflows". I would love a detailed explanation. Thanks!
China Slowdown - www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2015/01/chinas-slowdown
Re:Interest rates on some European government bonds have gone negative
on Thursday February 05, 2015 @04:11PM (#9006130)
well, I think right now the US is in the middle of a short term debt cycle, where assets are going to return around 3% and things seem somewhat quiet...it reminds me of the late 90s, just before the dotcom boom...a quiet few years, however, things never stay this way...we have seen an inflation of the stock market, but most American's aren't feeling that...credit growth has been somewhat tepid, and what I think is going to happen is we are going to get into something similiar to another "dotcom" boom, with a ton of IPOs, money flooding into our stock market from all over the world as investor chase returns, the stock market will probably go higher in 2015, and people will eventually feel really good about the economy, and they will push up credit levels. We're not seeing any growth in wages, so eventually the credit levels will get too steep and defaults will occur, and the cycle will turn down.
That is just the nature of the beast....things go up and then they come right back down. Its bound to happen sooner or later, and I think maybe in 2016-2017.
But I'm most likely 100% wrong...most economic forecasts are...what do you think?
Re:Interest rates on some European government bonds have gone negative
on Thursday February 05, 2015 @03:52PM (#9005991)
sorry, what I meant to say is that developed countries need to help grow/establish the middle class in emerging market countries.
My understanding of the situation (and to be honest, I am in no way an authority on this, and am most likely totally wrong), but population growth in developed countries is slowing, which is another way of saying that we are not producing more and more customers like we used to.
Companies need more and more people to buy their stuff so that they can grow and grow. So, if developed nations are not producing ever-larger numbers of consumers, companies have to look elsewhere.
Hence, enter emerging markets. However, and this may be totally biased or completely wrong, but from what I've read and seen, a large portion of the populations in those emerging economies do not have much disposable income and thus do not make very good consumers.
But if the economies in those countries improve, that will create better paying jobs, low income earners will rise and become middle-class earners, and become better consumers. And you will see overall economic growth, as new businesses are started, tax revenues increase, governments are able to spend more, credit levels are increased, etc.
At least, that's why I think need to grow the middle class in EM.
Re:Interest rates on some European government bonds have gone negative
on Thursday February 05, 2015 @03:28PM (#9005794)
That's the question, right, how do we find growth?? And my thinking is that economic growth doesn't come from a rise in production, as most economists think. It comes from a rise in credit...basically people/governments wanting to buy what they really can't afford. This pushes up demand and prices and eventually production, and the economy grows. Until the debt service payments become unsustainable, you have defaults and the whole thing comes crashing down. That is why we have cycles.
But you're absolutely right, developed countries need to grow the middle class, and helping Africa, Asia and India get there will create billions of new customers. We've seen a run up in EM in the last decade, and a pull back recently. But the future is there, in Africa, Asia and India. That is where the majority of growth in the global economy is going to come from in the next 20-30 years.
Re:Interest rates on some European government bonds have gone negative
on Thursday February 05, 2015 @02:40PM (#9005415)
you are correct...thanks for the catch! corrections made
Re:Interest rates on some European government bonds have gone negative
on Thursday February 05, 2015 @02:20PM (#9005276)
Europe is most likely in the "Late Phase" of their recession...QE will pull up growth some....here's a macro view of the EU I did on my blog a couple of weeks back...would love any feedback.
www.theeconomicmachine.tumblr.com/post/108174705732
Re:How the Economic Machine Works (2014)
on Thursday January 15, 2015 @09:55AM (#8892720)
I don't think we necessarily "need" lending for consumption, we like it. We like being able to buy a house when we only have 10% to put down...same thing goes for a car...or a tv...or our clothes, fancy dinners, etc. We want all these things, but most of us can't afford to pay for them in cash. So we leverage up. We don't need credit. We like it.
Re:How the Economic Machine Works (2014)
on Wednesday January 14, 2015 @09:20PM (#8890546)
ha, Ackman is so hot right now. And, its not Dalio. Just uses his approach to the markets.
Re:How the Economic Machine Works (2014)
on Wednesday January 14, 2015 @08:37PM (#8890407)
http://theeconomicmachine.tumblr.com/
good blog that uses Ray Dalio's thinking to examine various economies around the world.
Re:Show HN: Closing Call – Hacker News for Sales
on Tuesday October 14, 2014 @10:33AM (#8453559)
theeconolist.com is still going
Re:Ask HN: Who wants to be hired? (August 2014)
on Friday August 01, 2014 @12:43PM (#8121295)
Location: NYC
Remote: Yes, but would prefer not to.
Willing to relocate: Yes
Technologies: Biz Dev, Law, Logistics, Sales
Resume: Upon request
Email: [email protected]