ownlife

There's no "getting elections right"; these models just estimate probability. They gave Trump a 29% change in 2016 -- that's almost 1 in 3!

A better way to assess accuracy would be to bin predictions (0-10% chance, 10-20% chance, etc.) and see if the observed frequency aligns with the predictions.

How can we jump to that conclusion? Maybe they were only willing to interfere in that process in extreme cases.

Many things are the truth, so it's really a question of framing. Another truth: humans have done reversible and irreversible damage to their natural environment; they can collectively reverse some of the damage and prevent further reversible and irreversible damage.

To focus on only irreversible damage -- especially as David Attenborough, somebody who over the better half of a century has earned massive respect and trust from people all over the world -- would be wildly irresponsible.

Why shouldn't infinite growth be possible?

You want to the documentary to end with David Attenborough saying that it is too late to revert the destruction of natural habitat?

Arguably, it devalues this list of books because it calls into question its credibility and its author's seriousness.

Kettle? Cattle?

> Why is that? It's a fair question.

I think most of those students would answer that they are protesting the US government's complicity in this particular injustice -- which doesn't apply to the other injustices you list. I have a hard time imagining that most people asking this fair question can't think of that obvious answer.

Surprising how little he's in the office - it probably only works since he’s already a CEO who does a lot of stuff, is beloved, etc

This is a great development -- it's surprisingly difficult to high quality scans of a lot of Escher's work.

Did Jimmy Kimmel celebrate the assassination? (He did not.)

counterpoint: I’m surprised “delulu” wasn’t already in OED and certainly would not consider it “cutting edge” slang in 2025 (quite the opposite). Just because one person hasn’t heard certain words doesn’t mean they don’t belong in what is meant to be a comprehensive dictionary. In fact, if you needed to know the meaning of every word that is added to the dictionary, then you would have no need for a dictionary! Never having heard a word has nothing to do with whether OED “called it too early.” To make that judgment one would want to find external evidence.

Are most submissions here news stories?

Huh? It’s evidence-based speculation. Of course it’s conceivable that a 68-year-old would have less concerns about putting her career on the line. I’m trying to understand how you think a conversation on HN should operate

"The basic, domestic quality thermionic tubes have codes for a projected life span of either 1500 (6Н3П-Е) or only 500 hours (6Н3П). Many were used and then stored for over 50 years, quality stamps may have been accidentally altered, so life expectancy may be questionable, both for the tubes and for me!"

I love the idea of an expiration date, or at least an ever-present need for repair. It emphasizes the idea that the computer is a machine, subject to the constraints of the physical world. There's something charming about that.

Are there any polling experts you recommend over him?

Why is the NY Times afraid to namedrop XKCD :( https://xkcd.com/2347/

I don’t think the takeaway from the Dunning-Kruger effect is "don’t invoke basic aspects of human nature on internet discussion forums unless you’re a trained academic psychologist"

7 out of 24 - just under 1/3 - making it to or past 88 is probably higher than average. More also made it past 88 but are dead now.