orange_joe

i’m pretty skeptical of this analysis because it (by default) hides the effect of welfare and advocates for a wealth tax. Hiding the existing social safety net in order to advocate for taxes feels very propagandistic.

I think it looks like the labs front running everyone’s work, freeloading on the last bits of human intelligence to ensure their owners a place as our masters.

if spotify employs an american and they become more experienced over their tenure were american resources extracted? human capital tends to get better with experience, particularly when dealing with high quality foreign management.

interesting. Manus is nominally a Singapore based company and should be immune to these actions. Tiktok argued that it was headquartered in Singapore with a Singaporean CEO. breaking singapore’s fig leaf might prove problematic in the long run.

I'm not being prescriptive, just observing the likely consequences of gendered policy.

I am wondering if the affected men will demand preferential treatment as a consequence of service. Women currently benefit from disproportionate employment in the social safety net, affirmative action in German government hiring, etc. I would imagine that this would be essentially offensive to the men who are required to stay in the country, or face (potential future) conscription. I suspect the demands of European governments will increase as countries continue to age.

How does feminism survive if this becomes the norm? If young men feel like they're expected to give more to their society it's natural to expect renumeration financial, socially or politically. Nordic countries don't seem to have this problem, but their conscription laws are quite relaxed compared to what the future will likely hold. A declining youth population almost certainly means greater youth repression (higher taxes for pensions, conscription, etc.)

the modern world emerged of rationalism, the end goal of AI & automated thinking is necessarily at odds with rationalism (systems will be increasingly illegible as AI accelerates progress). I believe this will fundamentally unmoor our civilization

America clearly has an EV industry (Tesla, Rivian) but its adoption is pretty limited by infrastructure.

This doesn't really pay attention to token costs. If I'm making a series of statically dependent calls I want to avoid blowing up the context with information on the intermediary states. Also, I don't really want to send my users skill.md files on how to do X,Y & Z.

contra-pessimism: My parents run a small organic farm on the east coast — (greenhouses, not row crops) and they extensively use chatgpt for decision making They obviously haven’t built out agentic data gathering, but can easily prompt it with the required information. they’re quite happy with everything.

I’m guessing this will screw up in assuming infinite labor & equipment liqudity.

I don't know how to really accept the fact that America is becoming a dramatically more corrupt country at the population and political level. It reminds me of growing up in the third world where the line between cop & bandit was blurred.

The entire piece keeps telling you to ignore the people in question, their statements and their preferences. It wants to push this doomer narrative of left behind people, while ignoring that communities are putting these banks together & the government is actively supporting them.

this seems overly polemic. My parents live on a small farm and heat their home with firewood. My dad likes splitting wood, and it’s marginally cheaper since they own a plot of woodland. Although, they have a brand new heat pump they prefer to use their wood burning stove. It’s fairly common but in my experience it’s primarily a lifestyle choice not economic . People who chose to live out their also like the resiliency given their libertarian/prepper tendencies. it’s annoying because this entire piece is predicated on ignoring everything locals actually say.

The law, in its majestic equality, forbids both the poor and the rich from living in dorms past college.

they rolled this out to NYC a month or two ago. They were airport shuttles with an initial price of $10 and will go to $25. It was dramatically more comfortable than taking the subway and then transferring to the air train and the normal price is honestly fairly competitive against the subway + air train (~$12).

1. I’m being descriptive not prescriptive. property taxes being used to drive urbanization and development is a standard urban planning practice and was used to be used in LA during they heyday of its growth.

2. Your issue with what I said seems very dependent on something you chose to “add in” — Why am I being asked to defend something I never said?

the extremely unpopular but logical next step in managing change would be to induce development by increasing property taxes. Basically compel people to move and sell their land to developers who build up the land.

Without trying to start a flame war...

There's likely an element that's certainly cultural, or a biologically based differences, but it seems like there are some very straight forward explanations for this.

There's significant governmental and private assistance to young women not available to young men (educational scholarships, grants, support groups, etc.). Any field in which men continue to do well is considered a problem, whereas the converse is accepted as a natural order (have you seen any pushes to get straight men into HR?).

There is also significant difficulty in even articulating these issues as its been broadly taboo to discuss biases that advantage women, such as a positive bias toward women in education[1]. That being said, the mere fact that this is now a publicly discussable issue seems to imply our standards for discussion are changing.

[1]. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01425692.2022.2...

couldn’t you just ignore them?

He's speaking rhetorically, most of the time the company setups you up with options that expire worthless.

worse, you’ll be paying to bail them out in the name of solidarity.

I think your idea of economics is more informed by online debate than actual research. Contemporary economists mostly try to articulate things through econometrics, which is a fairly data driven field. It’s fair if you have issues with the rigor of these studies but a discussion of schools is fairly off base from my experience.

I don’t really think a sanctioned entity is under obligation to argue “both sides”. I doubt Chinese companies under similar conditions will do so, or have done so in the past.

Seems like a totally different thing, very political and adult oriented.

Yeah I was just referring to accessing resources. I only went through undergrad, so original research wasn’t a huge component.

Truthfully, colleges have a larger, higher quality pool of applicants. Moreover lots of tedious mechanical work within colleges has been automated (grammar, spelling, arithmetic), and research has become dramatically easier. It would stand to reason that grades would rise even if standards were kept the steady.

Anecdotally, my father and I went to Ivy League schools. I saw his application and his school work. His writing was substantially worse than mine despite his focus on the humanities and mine in programming. I simply don’t believe that the increase in GPA has meaningfully eroded the quality or ambition of work.

That's not true in NYC, food service workers have a minimum wage of $15. other groups you're thinking of also have minimum wages (i.e. door dash drivers)

the labor force participation percentage is a slight of hand. You're including children (who receive free metro cards), retirees (including social security beneficiaries, pensions), and people who might just be rich. 40% has nothing to do with people's ability to make or have money.